super bowl

Final Play of the season. let's remember it's just one game. too many of the hedgie's friends want to make this game a HUGE bet.  try to avoid that...it's a solid 3 star play  nothing more, nothing less...

 3 stars on the STEELERS - 6.5     early on the hedgie was caught up in the cinderella cardinals story. we won money on them at home vs the eags..how can you not like kurt warner.  but as time set in and the honeymoon wore off the steelers are the obvious pick.  i could go on and on  but here are the simple bullets:

 -  defense wins championships. steelers D is one of the best EVER  

 -   warner has been hot but very susceptible to the blitz up the middle. is old and slow

 -  warner is smart but dick lebeau INVENTED the zone blitz defense

 - steelers played a MUCH tougher schedule

 - cards play great at home and horrile on road. FORGET about jake delhomme's horrendous 

     game when carolina had 6 turnovers

 - steelers are healthy . o line, willie parker, even hines ward is fine and will contribute

    hines flew down a hyperbaric chamber this week which pumps oxygen to the blood cells     

    and promotes healing. hedgie knows this works as he's used one in mexico to promote      healing  n the liver and other organs...

- wisenhunt knows steelers ...fine...overrated story...steelers are on a mission and play as a unit  best chemistry  the league

- home field...this is supposed to be a neutral field. it is NOT   steelers fans travel  and travel well  they come out of the woodwork...hedgie was in washington on a monday night this yr when fed ex field was covered with 40,000 terrible towels.  hedgie was n detroit when steelers beat seatlle 21-10 and there were 60,000 terrible towels waving. and hedgie was on a flight to tampa last night when the entire plane was filled with hines ward, heath miller and troy palomalu jersies. this is a home game for the steelers and they will win by 2 touchdowns...

  STEELERS 27   CARDINALS 17     

some good props....

WILLIE PARKER  OVER 79.5 yards     fast willie is fnally healthy and the steelers will try and keep the cards offense off the field. this could bode well for under 46.5 also  BUT the better play is fast willie who is actually more tough than fast    he's fresh the o-line is fresh and hedgie expects  22 carries and 100+ yards.....maybe even an MVP   willie > 79.5   3 stars

EDGE JAMES  UNDER 46.5 yards          2 stars

small fun play    1st TD in game   GARY RUSSELL  18/1    steelers been using him in short yardage lately and this is a great shot with long odds if steelers get inside the 5 yard line

Cards to recieve the ball first   -120..this line has cret up to -150 in alot of spots  if you can get -150 or better take it !  the play is that the steelers will DEFER if they win the toss and send their #1 defense on the field to set the tone  so either way the cards should be getting the ball first

 this game could end up a ho-hummer with the steelers dominating.....so at least be when you see a lot of willie parker

    good luck to all. see you in march for march madness....

   

71.3%

Hedgie calls that a passing grade for sure.  That's the Star weighted Record in the NFL for the entire Season.  102-41-1  

While Hedgie crunched numbers all week trying to figure angles and props for the last big game he came a across a few other numbers:

 11,955  --> hit on the site this season

 8.0       ---> average # hour dedicated to analyzing the games.

 20        ---> # weeks in the season

230      ----> dollars donated to the SEED Academy

 1.43   ---> hedgie's hourly pay (if he were to get paid for what he did)     

                   $230 divided by (20 weeks x 8 hours per week) = $1 .43

Hmmm, something doesn't add up. Do the hedgie followers average $10 per wager?  Mindboggling numbers..... If you enjoy the hedgie's free commentary and blogs and you managed to prosper this year  please consider taking 1 minute of your time and click on this link to help the SEED Academy. The Hedgie's close friend is doing a great thing and every bit of support helps.....it's a registered non profit organization 

www.seedproject.org/donate.html

ok, more numbers to crunch. football numbers!  the hedgie will have a 3 star play on the game with some comentary by tomorrow at 6pm latest !  maybe soon depending on a few things...also some prop plays

     

                                               

nfl picks

Cardinals +4     3 stars

Ravens  +6     1 star

NFL PLAYOFF SUNDAY

Giants -4      3 stars

Steelers -6   2 stars

Saturday NFL Playoffs

Ravens +3      2 stars

HEDGIE COMPLETES BOWL SEASON

RECORD :

13- 6 68%

STAR WEIGHTED:

31 - 11 74%

When the line opened at -3 Hedgie thought Gators all the way and would have probably released a 2 star play. But now the entire public is on the Gators ...lost wagers fromm the bowls are chasing the favorite and the Big 12 has not performed so well in the Bowls...so the line is jumping to 4,5 and even 6 in spome spots. The line move is not based on any new info on the teams or the weather. So if you can catch +6 with Oklahoma that's probably worth a small play. The over/under opened at 72 and has crept down a little as well. Maybe a little value on Under 71. But the Hedgie will not chase this final bowl game and ruin the streak. Some people who like to tease might even do a Oklahoma +12 and UNDER 77 but the Hedgie will try and stay disciplined. The weather forecast calls for 55 degrees and 10mph winds. Hedgie will be there to see for himself. If anything changes from the stadium a post will be made within an hour to kickoff......

Let's remember there are some important NFL playoff games on deck. So don't squander your valuable bowl winnings......

Good luck !! and stay tuned

To see how the Hedgie did for the college bowl season, see spreadsheet below.  For easier viewing click 'Full Screen View' in the upper right corner.

only 2 bowls left....

Tulsa - 2 1/2 4 stars


The MAC has been horrible in bowls and Hedgie can't see Ball State focused with theri head coach bolting for San Diego State.

MONDAY BOWLING

TEXAS/OHIO STATE    -8  AND 52.....PASS   

Hedgie Sunday

sorry for the late post, the hedgie was up late celebrating  the 5 star victory.....

yesterday was a great example of how different the playoffs are and how much home field advantage can mean.....

Miami + 3 1/2     1 star        although the hedgie loves ray lewis and company  this is more of a hunch as another rookie qb rolls into hostile playoff territory on the road. joe flacco has looked great much like matt ryan but the hedgie feels like pennington will manage the game better and more than a FG is worth a shot

Vikings  +3      2 stars      similiar thoughts here.  vikes home crowd will make a diference andthe vikes should be able to run.  so will side with the home playoff dog getting a FG 

HEDGIE ALERT

Hedgie releases it's Third  5 star play of the year.....

Chargers/Colts   UNDER 51     5 stars   

analysis to follow later. do not walk to the window....RUN !    possible rain in forecast as well. this line started dipping from 52 when it opened. would not be surprised if it closes around 48.5

late bowl play

money coming in on utah. bama has played without their star LT prevously and will be in sync tonight.....

  go against the public money and lay  8 1/2 with bama     2 stars

Bowling

Mississippi  +4      1 star       miss beat florida and lsu this yr  and has been a great underdog all season    on paper texas tech may appear better but there could be a letdown here as they expected to be playing at least in the BCS

Kentucky  +3       3 stars      ecu is 0-5  against the spread this yr as a road favorite. kentucky has been banged up all year and continued to show lots of fight.  expect a hard fought battle here.  vegas total being set low at 41 makes 3 points a nice premium to play on kentucky

bama/utah    stay tuned. most likely passing on the game.  with all american LT out for bama the line hasn't changed too much   bama -10 and 46  to bama -9.5 and 45......perhaps a small lean to the under. will post a pick later in the day if thoughts change

good luck!  

Jan 1st 2009 Bowls

1pm     Clemson -1                                  2 stars

     

5pm     Penn State /USC     OVER 45   3 stars

815pm     Cinci  -2                                   3 stars

note:  georgia -7.5  1 star  at 1pm  but hesitant to recommend b/c this line is creeping higher and  looks to be 9 or more at a few spots