Sunday, February 9, 2025

SUPER BOWL LIX. plus a special add ono play in a WNCAA game

 


🎤 "i've got a blank space baby , and i'll write your name.....  SAQUON "


The Hedgie sees this game playing out in a couple ways . Firstly, there's no doubt the Eagles the better interior lines. Both their Oline and Dline are better and the have the best RB in the NFL in Saquon Barkley.  Also , the Chiefs at times have struggled vs the run.  There is also no doubt about the Magic of Patrick Mahomes and the genius of Andy Reid.  The Eagles defense has been dominant all season but Mahomes . Vic Fangio was a great addition.  But Mahomes is 8-0 (6-2 ATS) vs Fangio defenses ( Dolphins & Broncos).   So the Hedgie sees this game either being dominated by the Eagles Oline and Saquon Barkley having a field day  OR Mahomes using his magic to steal a tight win.  


6.5 point Two Team TEASER :  EAGLES +7.5 and OVER 42 

  3 STARS



 PROP PLAYS :


 Dallas Goedert -  OVER 50.5 Receiving yards  - It's been well documented that the Chiefs have not been good vs TE this year. If you recall on Christmas Day The Hedgie strongly recommended the STeelers Pat Freiermuth  on two prop plays (OVER 25 yards and OVER 40 yards ) which bothhit paydirt.  The Eagles have many weapons and the Chiefs can't stop them all. They will be focused on stopping Barkley and teh two dangerous wideouts ( AJ Brown and D Smith) . This will leave plenty of opportunities for Goedert who racked up 85 yards just last game vs the commanders.  This is a popular play and my favorite on the board .


RB Gainwell OVER 6.5 yards rushing (-110) 

Mahomes WILL throw an interception ( +114)   -  if this game script plays out as perceived then Mahomes will be scrambling alot and playing from behind.  He'll no doubt have some magic but he also will be trying to create plays on his own under pressure from a very good defense.  Hedgie sees a tipped ball or two and an INT at some point.  

Kicker BUTKER over 1.5 Field Goals Made - The Eagles play alot of zone and give up yards between the 30s. But they tighten up in the redzone and force Fiels Goals.  Butker has played in 4 Super Bowls and is 9 out of 10 .  You have to lay a steep price but it's worth it.   -190 


FIRST TD of game :  Chiefs have been slow starters this season so the Hedgie thinks the Eagles will put up the first touchdown of the game.  Hedgie likes the long shot odds . Since Hedgie see Goedert having a big game why not also the First TD ....also Johan Dotson has been getting on the field a lot more.  With the Chiefs so focused on the other stars Dotson is worth a shot at 70-1 !

     Goedert 16-1

     Dotson  70 - 1 


Fun cross sport prop :  Goedert MORE RECEIVING YARDS  than the NHL Game Washington / Utah :  SHOTS ON GOAL.    100 wins you +125  -   Each team averages approx 30 shots on goal per game according to NHL data.  Once again playing into the Geodert having a good game.  This woudl mean he'd need approx 60 yards or more. But you are getting plus money .


No 4 Texas hosts No 2 South Carolina 2pm 

Hedgie's got a longtime pal who lives in Nevada and has been crushing the books with his WNCAA plays.  Kenny W likes Texas and the Under today . Let's all ride with Kenny and roll it into the Super Bowl 

These two teams met earlier in season and South Carolina won handily 67-50.  Today's rematch is in Austin Texas and Hedgie leans Texas as a 2.5 point underdog. But the official play is a tough fought defensive game ...UNDER 137.5  2 STARS 

Sunday, January 26, 2025

NFL Conference Championships

 The Hedge is properly fueled up , caffeinated and focused for a great day of football …



3pm : Eagles / Commanders 

    Hard to imagine Jayden Daniels and Commanders NOT keeping this game close if not stealing a win.   Although OL Cosmi is out and DT Payne as well , the Eags are dinged up at a more key position. QB Hurts is just 3 games removed from a concussion, has not played well and now has a dinged up knee and will be wearing a brace. Hedgie thinks the Commanders have an edge on coaching as well.  Eags head coach Sirianni is 3-4 ATS in the playoffs.  

Commanders +6.5 3 STARS

Commanders Moneyline +240 1 star 

FIRST HALF UNDER 23.5 2 stars 

If you believe in karma - 33 years ago today , January 26 , 1992 the Washington Redskins beat the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl  XXVI 37-24 💫 



Props : 

- Jayden Daniels OVER 226.5 passing yards 

- Ekeker OVER 27 receiving yards 

- Zaccheaus OVER 24.5 receiving yards 

- Jalen Hurts UNDER 32.5 rushing yards 

- Gainwell OVER 9.5 rushing yards 


6:30pm : Chiefs / Bills



Most money is in on the Bills as bettors still remember the 31-10 home win over the Chiefs just a few weeks ago   But now the Chiefs get to host and the road still goes through them.  Mahomes threw 2 ints in that last game and rarely makes the same mistakes again  The chiefs are also getting healthier with Wr Brown now back in the mix while the bills have an injury to defensive safety Rapp. Travis Kelce was average all season but is surging once again in the playoffs   


Chiefs -2 2 Stars 

Game total OVER 48.5 3 stars 



Props :

Kelce OVER 70.5 receiving yards 

Kareem Hunt OVER 8.5 Carries 

Josh Allen OVER 230.5 passing yards 



3 team bonus teaser : 10 points - 1 Star 

Washington +16.5 /  chiefs +8 / chiefs game over 38.5


Sunday, January 19, 2025

NFL SUNDAY PLAYOFFS





 3pm:   TEASER :  Eagles pickem & UNDER 49  3 STARS


Jalen Hurts not currently sharp after the concussion.  He's 5-1 UNDER in playoff games. Expect a lot of rushing with Saquon and clock chewing in the colder weather. Tough task for Rams after emotional 2 weeks from wildfires and traveling east on a short week.


          also, 3 TEAM TEASER  - 10 points (-130 juice)

             Eagles +3.5 ; Eags/Rams UNDER 53 ; Ravens +9   2 STARS



6:30pm :  leanings tease Ravens and Under ..waiting for kickoff to see if money comes in on the home team bills.  Ideally Ravens +6 and Under 58  1 STAR

Wildcard games were 5-1 Under last weekend


PROP:   Lamar Jackson OVER 53 yards rushing....although this is popular and the line is going higher....pass if don't get good execution


Sunday, January 12, 2025

NFL WILDCARD SUNDAY

Denver +8.5 2 STARS 



TEASER : 7 points 2 team -130

Commanders +10 & OVER 43 

3 STARS 

PROPS :

Jaden over 232 passing yards 

Ekeler  over 20.5 receiving yards 

Zaccheaus  wr  over 37.5 receiving yds



Saturday, January 11, 2025

Hedgie NFL wildcard Saturday

Chargers -2.5 4 STARS 


More analysis/plays coming later today.  Prob by 330


Good luck !

Sunday, January 5, 2025

NFL Sunday week 18. - adding 2 props late

 Chiefs +11.5 1 STAR

Chiefs / Broncos UNDER 40 1 star

Rams/ Seahawks UNDER 38.5 1 star

Teaser : Seahawks -1/Commanders-1 

    1 star 

Vikings +3 3 stars 


More analysis possibly before  1pm kickoff.  Maybe a couple props and late adjustments with the line moves 

  Good luck ! 


PROP : Geno Smith OVER 250 passing yards -  geno has many incentives today and could earn $6 million in bonuses


PROP: JK Dobbins  OVER 72 rushing yards -  JK off the IR and active for chargers. Should get alot of work as thet Chargers egt ready for playoffs.