Sunday, December 26, 2021
Saturday, December 25, 2021
Merry Christmas The Hedgie took a break to the North Pole. There's been work to do ....
Today Features 2 NFL games and a College Bowl Game today and the Hedgie will be involved in all three...
2:30pm CAMELLIA BOWL : Georgia State vs Ball State
This game is in Montgomery Alabama which is an easy trip for the Georgia State faithful. Georgia State has a good run game and finished the season strong while Ball State fizzled down the the stretch. All signs point to a motivated Georgia State team getting the win here
Georgia State -5.5. 1 star
4:30pm Browns @ Packers
Temps will be cold which will have many bettors taking the under here (46.5) . The Packers have been on a roll and have secured a playoff spot. There's no reason to think that will stop BUT the Browns come in desperate . Baker Mayfield is off the covid list and will get the start however maybe more importantly their defensive leader Myles Garrett is hobbled with a groin injury and most likely will not play. The Browns kicker Chase McLaughlin is also a scratch with Covid so the Browns will rely on the practice squad kicker Chris Naggar . All this feels like too much to overcome for the Browns. With Jarvis Landry and Baker back they will fight to the end and put up some points . But just like last week the Packers will prevail.
TEASER : Packers - 1 and OVER 40.5 1 star
8:15pm Colts @ Cards
At first glance the Hedgie could not wait to get a bet down on the surging Colts as an underdog. The Cards have been struggling and lost 2 in a row and the Colts strength is the O LINE which is always a good factor to consider when betting a road team. HOWEVER , 3 of the Colts starters will now be OUT . This changes everything as the blitz happy Cards will now put the pressure on QB Carson Wentz. Wentz is serviceable when the OLINE is healthy and star Taylor is doing his work. But when the game is left in Wentz' hands he makes too many mistakes. The Cards are also not as bad as they have appeared lately. QB Murray has been struggling and still recovering from an earlier ankle injury. But today is the day to BUY LOW on the Cards. The look ahead line a few weeks back was Cards -5 . Don't let the recency bias trick you . Big effort from the home team today
CARDINALS -1.5 3 stars
Stocking Stuffer 3 team Teaser:
Ga State +0.5 / Packers -1 / Cards +4.5
6 points 3 teams pays +150
Merry Christmas !
Sunday, December 12, 2021
NFL WEEK 14
Raiders +10 1 star
Browns -2.5 1 star (pass on -3)
Teaser: Titans -2.5 & Falcons +8.5 1 star
Sunday, December 5, 2021
Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh face off an NFL record 25 times vs each other in the regular season. Harbaugh has 13 Wins vs Tomlin's 11. 16 of those games have been decided by 4 points or less. This is an all or nothing game for the Steelers at home.
Steelers +4.5 1 star
Chargers +3 1 star
Bills Monday Night -2.5 (-120) 2 stars
Saturday, November 27, 2021
Hedgie's Weekend Card
Thursday, November 25, 2021
Happy Thanksgiving
Two Turkeys start in the early game at 12:30. Hedgie actually thinks Dalton is ok and the Bears Oline will create some holes form RB Montgomery. The Lions get Goff as starter and it's all around a bad team. Bears HC Nagy may be coaching his last game for the Bears if they lose. The Bears may still have a little hope for their season as well.
BEARS -.2.5 1 Star
TEASER : Cowboys -1 & Bears +3.5 - 1 Star Raiders have lost 3 straight games a nd their offense is really struggling with Gruden . Cowboys bounce back after loss to Chiefs
Saints +6.5 1 star - Thanksgiving night on Bourbon street will be rocking. Saints have lost 3 in a row and need this game to salvage any part of their season
Miss State -2. 1 star
Sunday, November 21, 2021
The Hedgie will keep fighting...
Saints +3 (-115) 2 stars - Kamara is out as well as the left tackle. Much like last week the Saints come in hobbled. But with all the money flowing in on the Eagles the line is now attractive at +3. The Saints have lost 2 in a row. Sean Peyton is a better coach and will have a good gameplan.
Texans +10.5 1 star - The Titans are on a roll but starting to wear down a bit. They should not be laying double digits to a divisional foe even if it's the lowly Texans. Tyrod Taylor is back for his 2nd game from injury. The Texans are coming off a bye and should have some fight in them.
Colts +7.5 2 stars - Colts have covered past 9 of 10 on the road. They have a good Oline and run Game with Johnathan Taylor who has 4 straight 100+ games rushing. Good Olines travel well.
Steelers/Chargers UNDER 48 1 star - Big Ben cleared to play after Covid . Chargers run defense is poor and the Steelers only path to a win should be through their run game and N Harris. Steelers defense is their strength so. 48 feels too high
Teaser: Cowboys +8.5 & Over 49.5 2 stars - Dalls WR Cooper is out with Covid but WR Gallup is IN. This should not be much of a dropoff as Dak has been playing at an elite level. Hedgie thinks the Cowboys are the better teama dn shodl win outright. Mahommes playing better and should score. So Cowboys and Over feels good in all scenarios.
Saturday, November 20, 2021
The Hedgie is back after a brutal last weekend....
Friday, November 12, 2021
The Hedgie's first 5 Star of the season is Sunday at 1pm...
There are no more questions if Alvin Kamara will play this week...HE IS OUT !
Last week's game vs the Falcons was a costly game for the Saints. Not only did Kamara suffer a mild knee sprain and is ruled out BUT their starting Left Tackle Armstead is also out as well as Safety Gardner-Johnson . Let's not forget the Saints lost QB Winston and will be starting Trevor Simien . They are 28th in total offense WITH Kamara and Winston. Now they must travel to play a hot Tennessee Titan team who is 7-2 ATS this year . Head Coach Vrable has this team focused even without RB Henry as witnessed last weekend on the road vs the LA Rams.
Not sure why this line has not climbed dramatically (YET). Monday it was Titans -2.5. Now the news has hit and it's still only Titans -3 in most spots. This line will close at Kickoff Titans -4.5 or higher.
LAY the Points NOW:
Tennesse Titans -3 5 STARS
* update - no Julio Jones it’s ok. Still a play
LA CHARGERS -3
4 stars - the Vikings are beat up. Their offense has a rookie coordinator in young kubiak and cannot sustain drives. The defense has been stretched thin , is worn out & has multiple injuries. Terrible spot for the Vikes on the road vs a good chargers team
Patriots -2.5 2 stars
Pats are quietly improving under Belechik. Browns coming off a great division win vs the bengals and RBs Chubb & Hunt are out
Sunday, November 7, 2021
NFL Hedgie SUNDAY
Bengals / Browns UNDER 47.5 1 star
It's November and this time of year the weather is colder and these divisional foes know each other well. The Browns have Chubb back and need to establish the run to win this game in what should be a slower paced game.
Chargers -1 @ Eags 2 stars
This line opened Chargers -3 and bettors took Eags money immediately. The only explanation here would be recency bias as fans recently watched the Eags dominate the pathetic Lions while the Pats stumped QB Herbert . Herbert also has a bruise thumb but has said is fine. There's also a handicapping angle to fade West coast teams that travel east and play early . The Chargers are banged up in the secondary but can Hurts exploit that ? The Hedgie believes the Chargers are just the superior team and needs a win . Great value on the Bolts to basically just win .
Broncos +10 @ Cowboys 2 stars
The Cowboys are the only undefeated team vs the spread this year at 7-0. The Catch here is that there is now a premium on the spread. The early lookahead line had the boys -6 a few weeks ago. Dak is back and the bettors will be on the Cowboys . The Broncos also traded star DE Von Miller to the Rams for future draft picks so the perception is that the Broncos are mailing it in . However , these are professionals and the Broncos will be fighting for their jobs still. QB Teddy Bridgewater's knickname is 'Teddy Covers'. He's a covering machine and with WR Jerry Jeudy back thinks the Broncos will keep this game close.
Teaser : Texans +11.5 & OVER 40.5 1 star
The Dolphins are only 2-5 ATS and should not be laying anywhere near a TD in this game. Their home field advantage is non existent . The main reason for this play is that Tyrod Taylor is back at QB for the Texans and he's a major upgrade at the most important position. Both defenses are poor so over 40.5 points should be easy.
Ravens (-270) / Saints (-265) MONEYLINE Parlay 1 star
This is essentially the same as a 2 team 6 point teaser ( ravens -6 & saints -6) . But the payoff is better on the moneyline. A teaser is -120 to win 100. The ML Parlay here is -120 to win 106 . Every bit counts when you're betting the NFL.
The plays here are based on Ravens coming off a bye week Harbaugh is a great coach off a bye and the Vikings will be missing star DE D. Hunter.
The Saints will start Trevor Simien and also get back Taysom Hill. The Falcons are just not a very good team and the Saints defense is playing well and are at home.
Saturday, November 6, 2021
Hedgie Saturday
Air Force MONEYLINE (-127) 2 stars ... ( or -2 1 star )
Colorado +11.5 2 stars
Cincinatti -22 3 stars
Sunday, October 31, 2021
Friday, October 29, 2021
Hedgie Saturday
Clemson has NOT COVERED a spread all year. There were high expectations. So this weekend the Florida State Seminoles come to town. If you had looked to bet this game week 1 the 'look ahead line ' was Clemson -27. This week the line opened Clemson -10 and noone has faith in this team. Fl State has played decently lately and the betting public prefers taking the points . The Hedgie thinks this line swing is just too much. Clemson's defense will shit the Noles down. This line is anywhere from 8.5 - 9.5 right now
CLEMSON -8.5 2 stars
Iowa/ Wisconsin - Lowest Total on the board at 36. Vegas and most expect this game to be very low scoring. Hedgie is not sure why Iowa is getting +3 let alone +3.5. Great Value on Iowa
IOWA +3.5 1 star
Notre Dame -3.5 1 star
Wednesday, October 27, 2021
HEDGIE HAS A 4 STAR TEASER !
Sunday evening Joe Barry and Davante Adams tested positive for Covid. Then a day later WR Allen Lazard tested positive. The problem here is that the Packers have a short week and must travel to play the undefeated Arizona cardinals Thursday Night . Barry is the D Coordinator and will miss the game. Adams has a very slight chance to play unless he tests negative twice in 2 consecutive days. And Lazard is OUT.
That leaves QB Rogers with limited offensive weapons . WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling has been on the IR and may return from his hamstring injury . However, rushing back from a hamstring injury does not inspire confidence in the DEEP BALL.
So how in the world will the Packers compete ? It seems fairly common sense that the proper game plan would be to lean on the best offensive weapons like RBs Jones and Dillon and mix in some short passes to TE Tonyan and slot receiver Cobb.
The only way the Packers stay close Thursday night is to sustain some longer drives and keep the Cards offense off the field as much as possible.
That would equate to a slightly lower scoring game than normal. This line last week was Cardinals -2 and 51 Total. It has since shot up to Cards -6.5 and 51 Total. Hedgie's a tad surprised the Total hasn't moved down much yet and thinks it will. Right now Hedgie sees some great value on teasing the total up to 57 and going UNDER while teasing the Cards down from -6.5 to -0.5. Even if the Cards blow out the Packers the Total is likely to stay Under as well. Most teams when ahead by a lot run the clock out in the 4th Q and don't want to risk injury . A good example of that was last week BUCS 38 Bears 3 .
So the play is :
TEASER CARDS -0.5 and UNDER 57 4 STARS
Sunday, October 24, 2021
Saturday, October 23, 2021
Thursday, October 21, 2021
Thursday Night Hedgie
Wait, is that Minnesota Vikings attire ??? Yes ! In 2017 Kevin Stefanski was the Offensive coordinator for the Vikings . The Vikings went 13-3 and Case Kennum led the offense on a magical ride. Fast Forward to today...Stafanski is the Browns Head Coach who brought in Keenum as a free agent to the Browns. Keenum provided a safety blanket for Stefanski if Baker Mayfield got hurt or didn't work out. Stefanski remarked about Keenum :
"Case is somebody that’s seen it all and been through it all in his time as an NFL quarterback,” Stefanski said. “The experiences he brings can be great for our team as a whole. He knows this system having played in it under coach (Gary) Kubiak when he broke into the league in Houston, and obviously I have experience coaching him with the Vikings.
“I’m really excited about bringing Case the person into this group. He’s the son of a football coach, he’s a grinder, he’s a gym rat, so I think he’ll fit perfectly into the mentality we’re trying to build.”
Last week in the look ahead line The Browns were -6 and the total was at 44. Both teams are very banged up and now Baker Mayfield has been ruled out as well as Browns starting RBs Chubb and Hunt. The weather forecast is now also for wind and possibly ran. . So the current line sits at Browns -1.5 and 40.
Odell Beckham is also out for the Browns but the Browns get back Jarvis Landry at WR.
The Money is clearly streaming in on the Broncos . But the Broncos are also banged up . Teddy Bridgewater gets the start but has a gimpy foot and the Broncos 2 starting inside LBs are out on defense. Both teams sit at 3-3 but a deeper look makes the Hedgie wonder if the Broncos are a fraud. The opened the season 3-0 and garnered a lot of media attention however those 3 wins were vs the Giants , Jets and Jags.
The Public remembers this past sunday watching the Browns get blown out at home in an embarrassing loss and now sees Baker is out....
The Hedgie believes in the Stefanski / Kennum duo and thinks this is the perfect spot for a scrappy gym rat at QB to get a home win in the wind and rain on a short week !
When asked if he was Ready for tonight Case said. "I feel very ready. I've been ready . You don't have to get ready if you stay ready , and i've been ready since I got here "
When asked about tonight's game The Hedgie said "I'm ready to lay some cash on Case"
BROWNS -1 4 Stars
Sunday, October 17, 2021
NFL HEDGIE SUNDAY
Browns -3 (-115) 3 stars
Chargers +3 (-115) 3 stars
Teaser: Rams -1 & Panthers +8.5 2 stars
Saturday, October 16, 2021
Hedgie Saturday
12pm. ET : Texas / Oklahoma State UNDER 61 3 stars
Where will Texas' heads be after such a heartbreaking loss last week ? Early kickoff today and Oklahoma State has a strong Defense. Okl State prefers ball control and it's only chance to win is with defense and ball control. So Hedgie really likes the UNDER here . The Texas shootout last week has this line slightly inflated based n last week's scoring.
12pm ET : MISSOURI. +11.5 2 stars (hosting Texas A&M)
Texas A&M off a huge win over Bama last week. Gigantic letdown spot . Missouri has not been good this season but Hedgie will take the Tigers as a double digit home dog.
stay tuned for a late play as manhy lines will be moving today...Hedgie leaning Miss St getting more than 17....
Sunday, October 10, 2021
Saturday, October 9, 2021
Hedgie NCAAF
Traveling today so no commentary....
Illinois +11.5 3 stars
Mississippi -5 2 stars
Virginia Tech pickem 2 stars
Sunday, October 3, 2021
NFL WEEK 4. - first 4 star play of the Season
So far this NFL season has provided somer nice Teaser plays. The Hedgie rarely teases in college football but in the NFL where there are less games and tighter pricing on numbers like 3,4,6,7 The Hedgie likes to take advantage when the opportunity presents itself.
Thursday's game was spot on. The Bengals are the better team at home and had a slow start. But in the end they won by 3 and covered the TEASER LINE of -1.5. More than 80% of the betting tickets were on the Bengals -7.5 . Vegas won that one.
SO Today there are a lot of teaser plays still open from thursday ...but there's another teaser that jumps out ...
Saints vs NY Giants 1PM - The Saints are playing there FIRST TRUE HOME GAME today a full month after Hurricane IDA ripped through there city. The fans will be crazed as usual and the energy will be incredibly high for the home town team and fans. The NY Giants have historically covered well as road dogs with Daniel Jones at the helm. However, this is too tall a task. Top WRs Sheppard and Slayton are both out and on defense LB Martinez is as well. Too tall an order and a bad spot.
If you want to bet Saints -7 go for it 1 STAR . If you want to lay -4. on Saints First half go for that too. Hedgie is going to put most chips today on a teaser at home with another 1PM team...
Eagles vs Chiefs 1PM - The Eagles return home after two tough losses on the road. The Chiefs come to town only 1-2 and have been burning their backers with a 2-14 ATS run the past 16 games dating back to last year. However, this feels like the right spot to back the Chiefs . They are by far the better team led by Mahomes. Andy Reid returns to philly and is the superior coach vs the Eagles' first time HC Nick Siranni. The Eags are the most penalized team in the NFL right now and appear somewhat disorganized. We are catching god line value here as the Eagles crushed teh Falcons in Atlanta week 1 and have now shown their true colors. Jalen Hurts struggles throwing the ball downfield and that was evident last week vs Dallas. So fi you feel good about laying the Cheifs -6.5 today go for it. But with their recent spread covering struggles the Hedgie doesn't want to leave anything to chance on a back door cover as the Chiefs defense is not very good. STrong feeling the Chiefs come away with a WIN no matter what .
So the Play is :
TEASER SAINTS -1 & CHIEFS -0.5 4 STARS
Speaking of the Eagles crushing the Falcons week 1 , the Falcons also have a new coach and Matt Ryan has looked like a statue in the pocket. Washington has been highly criticized for it's poor defense and this may just be the spot for a team with talent to play had and get healthy
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM -1 2 STARS
Friday, October 1, 2021
HEDGIE's Week 5 NCAA Football Card
Jack Campbell leads one of the best defenses in the country tonight @ the 4-0 Maryland Terps who are also 3-1 ATS. Iowa's offense has struggled and is generally slower tempo. The current hype on the Terps is on QB Tagovoiloa. But the Terps boast a pretty good defense too. Iowa is 4-0 UNDER this season. So The Hedgie will ride that trend into Friday night :
FRIDAY 8:00PM ET : IOWA / MD UNDER 47.5 1 STAR
SATURDAY 7PM ET : OKL ST -3.5 2 STARS
SATURDAY NOON ET : MISSOURI -2.5 3 STARS
SATURDAY 10:30PM ET : UCLA/ ARIZONA ST OVER 56 2 STARS
Thursday, September 30, 2021
NFL Rookies may TEASE you with Potential.....but the Hedgie likes Teasing and Fading Rookie QBs for Profits
Trevor Lawrence had made 3 starts in the NFL . He's still adjusting to the faster speeds and trying to figure out defenses. He's thrown 5 TDs and & 7 INTs. His QBR rating is a lowly 23.1 which is 30th in the NFL.
So are the Bengals good enough to lay over a full touchdown (-7.5) to the Jags !? Vegas isn't stupid and they know there's always that chance for a backdoor cover. The Jags gave a scare to the Cardinals last week until Lawrence threw a PICK SIX....
So the Hedgie will continue to Tease good teams vs the Rookie QBs until the trend stops...
TEASERS :
BENGALS -1.5 & SAINTS -1 (Saints fist home game and Gmen really struggling ) 3 STARS
BENGALS -1.5 & LIONS +8.5 (Lions showing a lot of fight while Bears look lost) 2 STARS
BENGALS -1.5 & TITANS -1 (Jets QB Wilson is 31st in QBR behind an injured Oline) 1 STAR
BENGALS -1.5 & BUCS -1 (Pats OLINE also struggling and Belechik cant throw any schemes at TB12 that he hasn't already seen) 2 STARS
The Key here is believing in the Bengals . They are coming off a great road win over rival Steelers and are now 2-1. Their defense is better than expected and Joe Burrow is rounding back into form and has new rookie toy Chase to throw to. Urban Meyer is also adjusting to the NFL and the Jags look sloppy.
Sunday, September 26, 2021
The Hedgie is coming off another good Saturday going 3-1-1
Welcome to the NFL Boys. Lawrence and Fields both starting today will running for their lives as they still try to adjust to reading NFL defenses....TEASER SPECIAL BELOW
1pm ET Bengals +3 (-120) 2 stars
Steelers are very banged up . Big Ben has an injured Pectoral muscle but will give it a go. JT Watt has been ruled OUT amongst other players. Bengals will be competitive and maybe even pull the upset.
1PM ET Colts +6 (-120) 1 star
Colts QB Carson Wentz is a game time decision with ailing ankles. HC Reich has options and may go with Jacob Eason or Brett Hundley. In Hedgie's opinion neither is much of a downgrade and this game is all about the Colts being focused and not slipping to 0-3 which would ruin their playoff chances. This will be a hard fought game.
1PM ET Pats -2.5 (-120 ) 3 stars
The Saints have been on the road now for a MONTH ! This is their 3rd road game and Hedgie thinks Bill Belechik will have a nice game plan vs QB Winston.
TEASERS : This Week's card looks like a teaser week. Let's not forget The Hedgie already has 2 open teasers from early in the week : Panthers -2 / Cardinals -1...Panther's -2 / Ravens -1.5
Today also looks appealing and when playing with house money let's keep it going :
1PM ET : TEASER : CARDINALS -2 & BROWNS -1 2 stars
Both Rookie QBs start today and will most assuredly have trouble reading their opponent's NFL defense. Cards and Browns both have good defenses and should confuse and harass both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields.
Saturday, September 25, 2021
Hedgie Saturday NCAFF
Notre Dame +6.5 2 stars
South Carolina +5.5 1 star
Boston college +1 2 stars
Iowa UNDER 44 1 star
Washington -7 (-115) 2 stars
Wednesday, September 22, 2021
Hedgie's Humpday Thoughts
Texans QB Tyrod Taylor started the season off red hot but just last week injured his Hamstring and if not officially ruled out he soon will be. Deshaun Watson will not be playing which leaves the Texans with rookie QB Davis Mills who will have to prepare on a short week vs a surging Carolina Panthers.
The Hedgier doesn't like laying a full touchdown or more on the road vs a divisional foe. The current line is Panthers -7.5. This line is already creeping higher and if we learned anything from week 1 it's that the vegas bookmakers do NOT want to get burned on TEASERS. Week 1 the public loaded up on BUCS TEASERS and theline went from -7.5 to -9. Well, when the Bucs won 31-29 and nly by 2 points alot f those late teasers were BURNED. But the Early Teasers cashed in !
SO let's be EARLY this week ! There are some attractive favorites to tease down this week :
PANTHERS -1.5 & CARDINALS -1.5 ( Cards at Jags )
PANTHERS -1.5 & BROWNS -1.5 (Browns hosting Bears . Dalton dinged up might not start)
PANTHERS -1.5 & RAVENS -1.5 (Ravens @ Detroit )
All 1 star
Sunday, September 19, 2021
The Hedgie is off to a 3-1 start this week....
This is a pic of LAST YEAR'S Raiders Oline ....They no longer have Brown at LT , WOOD was injured Week 1 and Inconito is not playing today either. 1st rd Draft pick Leatherwood is going up against WATT . The Steelers D will Feast today
as per Wednesday early post :
1PM ET : Panthers +3.5 2 star - (see wednesday analysis - update : 8 Saints assistants will not be available for this game due to Covid Protocols). Home Division Dog +3.5 is the play
1PM ET : Steelers -5 3 stars (see wednesday analysis. since then Josh Jacob RB has been scratched also. The Raiders have a short week, travel west to east for an early start , and have plenty of injuries. starting guard Wood is out and rookie LT Leatherwood makes his debut road start and will go against TJ WATT. Lay the points and will be incorporating a teaser
425pm ET : Chargers -3 vs Cowboys 1 star . Dak and the Dallas offense looked good vs the Bucs. But the Cowboys continue to battle injuries. No WR Gallup this game and starting tackle Collins is out starting a 5 game suspension. MORE IMPORTANTLY the suspect Dallas defense will be without star DE LAWRENCE ....AND DT Gregory will miss due to covid. Tough spot for America's Team which always tends have have extra public betting support. Great value with
CHARGERS -3
PS if you like betting player props consider Justin Hebert OVER 300 passing yards
EXOTIC TEASER : 3 TEAM 6 Point Teaser. : $100 pays +150
PATS pickem / STEELERS Pickem / BRONCOS pickem 3 stars
These lines have ALL been moving higher all week. Belechik and Fangio vs rookie Qbs and the Steelers hosting Raiders banged up and short week is the theme.
Saturday, September 18, 2021
The Hedgie starts the week with a Friday win and has 3 plays today...
2:30pm. Purdue @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame's renovated visitor tunnel won't fit Purdue's Famously Large Drum and Notre Dame won't allow the drum through the home side tunnel. This is because ND is planning on drumming Purdue themselves. The fighting Irish have started the season 0-2 ATS and won a couple close games but Hedgie thinks the #12 ranked team in the nation will tighten up a few mistakes and get healthy at home today . Purdue top RB Horvath is out 4-8 weeks after breaking his fibula last week as well. Irish n a drumming...
Notre Dame -7 (-120) 3 stars
3:30pm Alabama @ Florida
Hedgie posted an early take on the Florida Gators +15.5 on Wednesday night. You can look back and see analysis. Today the line sits Bama -14. Anything +15 or more is a 1 star play. Keep an eye on the lines.
Florida +15.5 1 star
6pm East Carolina @ Marshall
Marshall is off to a great start this year with their offense averaging 46.5 points per game. The ECU Pirates are making their first road trip of the year and have historically not been a competitive road team. It's Marshalls defense that'll get the cover here.
Marshall -10 2 stars
Friday, September 17, 2021
Thursday, September 16, 2021
NFL THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Remember last years playoffs? Taylor Heinicke got an unlikely start vs the Bucs at home and led the Washington Football Team in a very scrappy battle vs the eventual SB Champs. Due to Fitzpatrick's week 1 injury Heinicke gets the start again tonight vs the Ny Giants . Both teams are 0-1 and Washington is -3.5 favorite . The Total opened up at 43 and has been bet down to 40.5 . This game has all the makings of a tight low scoring defensive battle . Hedgie will stay away from this game tonight and enjoy watching the crafty Heinicke . The NY Giants OLINE is a mess, they have no TE Engram tonight and star RB Barkley is still not 100% healthy.
To Recap yesterday's post and Hedgie early action this week :
NFL : Carolina Panthers +3.5 1 star
NFL : Steelers -5 1 star
NCAAF : Florida +15.5 1 star
More plays coming tomorrow....
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
As Draftkings expands and add millions of new gamblers....so does The The Hedgie's ability to catch the best LINES !
DRAFTKINGS now operates legally in 14 States . And more states will be coming online soon.
As a result there are hundreds of thousands of new bettors in the country. This new found action will move the betting lines from state to state and across the country . It's important to have multiple outlets and not just Draftkings for instance. Fan Duel & BetMGM are other options as well and they all have varying prices on the games.
Also that makes lines MORE AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE WEEK. The Hedgie loves this and will try to post some early or midweek thoughts throughout the season.
This week there are a few opportunities the Hedgie is trying to seize upon.
The New Orleans Saints just blew out the Packers last week and now must travel to a division foe in Carolina. The Saints also have had a corona virus breakout of 6 offensive staff and a player (8 Total in the organization). This can only be a distraction. The line was originally a bit high ( An overreaction to the week 1 win) . The Panthers were looking attractive at +4 or +3.5. But now with the rona news the line will be creeping down and money will be bet on the Panthers. If you can get the Panthers at +3.5 or more it's a 1 star 'take'
Another opening line that looks like an early 'take' is the Pittsburgh Steelers -5 hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders just got an emotional home game Monday night thrilling win over the Baltimore Ravens and now must travel across the country , on a short week, to an early time zone and have their starting Guard Wood out for the season with a torn ACL. This does NOT setup well vs a Steelers team with a very good defense. Lay the -5 NOW before t goes higher. 1 star
In College ball there's a YUGE game at the Swamp. Florida hosts Alabama as a double digit dog and this crowd will be wild. Bama's QB Young is making his first career road start and it's a lot of points to be laying . The line is already moving Florida's favor. If you can get the Florida Gators at +15.5 or +15 its a 'take'. The line will be creeping towards 14 and maybe even lower so grab as an early 1 star play
Hedgie will have more plays for Saturday and Sunday but as the betting landscaper changes across the country The Hedgie will evolve , adapt and capitalize with the changes.
Thursday Nights game Washington hosting the NY Giants -3.5 and 41 as the total. With Ryan Fitzpatrick out this game feels like a defensive slugfest but the line opened at 43 and has already come down with the news. This will most likely be a 'pass' come kickoff .
Good Luck as Always !
Sunday, September 12, 2021
The Hedgie was 2-0 Saturday and now is ready for the full slate of Week 1 in the NFL
1 PM : Steelers / Bills
Big Ben Roethlisburger showed up to training camp in great shape after going on a strict diet. He acknowledged he doesn't eat avacado ice cream like tom brady but by Ben's appearances maybe he'll be referred to as 'Medium Ben' by the end of this season. The Steelers have a new offensive coordinator and philosphy and drafted Najee Harris as their first pick. The main concern here is the Steelers O Line but draft pick Harris is a great pass catching RB and Big Ben will be more nimble. The Steelers are great road warriors going 10-3 Ats their past 13. so if Hedgie sees +7 that will be a play. But with the explosive Bills Offense this game points more towards...
OVER 48 3 stars
1PM: Colts/ Seahawks
The Seahawks have been an amazing 12-1 in the Eastern Time zone straight up since 2018 (as per espn) . The past 2 seasons Russell Wilson is also 8-2 outright ....HOWEVER only 3-6-1 against the spread. The Colts are legit . Hedgie loves HC Frank Reich who worked in Carson Wentz in his past successes. Wentz and star Guard Nelson were both recovering from injuries and there was some uncertainty about their status. But BOTH WILL GO today which is why Hedgie loves the Home Dog. Hedgie believes Vegas had shaded a little too high the Seahawks based on the recent public perception and media attention that Russell Wilson gets. Wilson had very little work in the preseason so Hedgie will gladly take ....
COLTS +3 3 stars
1 PM: Jaguars /Texans
The Texans offseason was a disaster. There's almost no positive news coming from this franchise. While in Jacksonville there's plenty of hype. The Jags have a new Head Coach in Urban Meyer and drafted the #1 pick QB Trevor LAwrence. Both will be making their debuts today n the NFL. The Hedgie knows the Texans are in rebuild mode. But these are professionals and behind the leadership of QB Tyrod Taylor will give max effort in this spot (week 1) . Home Divisional Dogs week 1 also hit at an above average rate. So the contrarian play here is ...
TEXANS +3 1 star
4:25PM Packers/ Saints
Due to Hurricane IDA this game was moved from New Orleans to Jacksonville. There's alot of logistics that goes into moving an entire team on short notice. The players have also had to deal with family emergencies and distractions that come with a Hurricane ripping through their home town. The vegas line didn't move much off this news. Packers have been favored by -3 , 3.5. maybe -4 agt some spots. Sean Peyton is ne of the best coaches around and Hedgie doesn't love the idea of going against a good saints team as a home dog. However, Aaron Rogers is the opponent and after a tumultuous offseason Hedgie thinks He will come out firing . Rogers is a great game manager as opposed to the new saints starting QB (Jameis Winston) and Hedgie thinks Rogers will find a way to win. Hedgie's best angle in this gamne is to best the Packer to simply win outright on the Monelyline. Thats. anywhere from -185 to -175 depending on the sportsbook.
PACKERS -175 MONEYLINE 1 star
4:25PM Broncos /Giants
The Broncos have a legitimate defense and are on the upswing. But under HC Fangio have NEVER WON IN SEPTEMBER . The Hedgie thinks this game is a big focus for Denver and thus the announcement that veteran Teddy Bridgewater would start game 1.
BRONCOS -3 2 stars
NFC WEST TEASER SPECIAL
This is a very popular public play but the public is often right these days. The Rams an d 49ers both have high aspirations this year and both have very good teams. The rams opened -7.5 vs the Bears while the 49ers opened -7.5 vs the Lions. Both these lines are climbing so the 6 point teaser is very important on EXECUTION of the line. Many witnessed the same affect on the Bucs vs Cowboys. That line climbed from -7.5 to -9 or even higher and the public got BURNED when the final score was 31-29. SO The Hedgie will play the teaser only at. -8 or -8.5 or better n both lines...currently the play is :
TEASER : RAMS -2 & 49ers -2.5 1 star
Saturday, September 11, 2021
A light Saturday for The Hedgie....Never Forget
Thursday, September 9, 2021
The Hedgie's Opening NFL Play of the 2021 Season is Tonight !
 |
| The Super Bowl Champion Bucs Return ALL 22 Starters Tonight opens a new NFL Season with the Tampa Bay Bucs hosting the Dallas Cowboys. This line has been Bucs -6.5 for the past month . Dak Prescott appears ready to start his first game since last year when he broke his leg in a gruesome injury . HOWEVER, his Offensive line is NOT READY and banged up. 4 time pro bowler Zach Martin is on the Covid 19 list and will not play. Connor Williams has had limited reps and La'el Collins has been dealing with neck stingers the past month. On the other hand the Bucs are completely healthy and Tom Brady is in sync with his offense just as he was when the season finished. Last year it took Brady and his offense 6 weeks to really gel. Now as per star WR. Mike Evans ' We are miles ahead of where we were last year'. So where is the spread now ? On game night? The Hedgie clearly loves the Bucs -6.5. BUT that line is no longer here. The betting public knows all this recent news and is ALL OVER THE BUCS. The line has gone to Bucs -9 and in some spots Bucs -10. The total has gone from. 51 to 52. The Bucs are the only side here tonight and for the few that got down on the earlier line the The Hedgie recommends : TEASER : BUCS -3 and OVER 46 2 stars Prediction : Bucs 33 - Boys 20 |
Friday, September 3, 2021
Opening Saturday of the 2021 Season starts tomorrow ! The Hedgie has 3 plays
12:00 Pm ET : Western Michigan @ Michigan
Just can't trust Harbaugh laying a big number like this . Michigan is 4-11 against the spread it's last 15 non conference opponents. Grab the points with the better Qb in Kaleb Eleby.
Western Michigan +17 1 star
12:00 pm ET : Penn State @ Wisconsin
Penn State finished last season on a hot streak . HC Franklin has a nice 8-3 ats record as a road dog last 11 games. This feels like too many points to be spotting in this big ten battle. There is also money coming in on Penn St as many lines are now +5.5. Hedgie found +6 (-115) so if you play the nittany lions it's best to grab the points now .
Penn State +6 (-115) 1 star
4:30 ET : UL- Lafayette @ Texas
Coach Bill Napier's Rajun Cajuns are ranked 23rd in the nation and are riding a 7 game win streak . #19 Texas starts are new era with new Head Coach Steve Sarkesian and a new starting QB Hudson Card. 9 points feels like a bit much to being laying.
UL-Lafayette +9 2 stars
Best of luck this season !
Thursday, August 5, 2021
Thursday, March 18, 2021
MADNESS IS HERE !
6:27PM Thursday
Drake's leading scorer , Shaquan Hemphill , is back after breaking his foot Feb 10th. He practiced this week and will play. Even if not 100% this is an emotional boost to a team that's already a polished squad
DRAKE -2 3 stars
9:57 PM Thursday
UCLA/MICH ST UNDER 135 1 star
Sunday, February 7, 2021
SUPER BOWL 55
To The Hedgie this game comes down to the interior linemen. The Bucs defense with JPP and Shaq Barrett are surging right now . Last game A Rogers was running for his life. This game BOTH Chiefs Starting Tacklers are OUT. LT Fischer is as good as it gets and he tore his achilles last game.
This game will be played on grass and Hedgie sees this as a 15 round heavyweight game going the distance. Chiefs will need to establish the run to keep the pressure off Mahomes and the Bucs will exploit the Chiefs 32nd ranked run defense . This eventually will allow Brady to work the play action...
BUCS 27
CHIEFS 24
BUCS +3 3 stars
UNDER 56 2 stars
PARLAY BUCS & UNDER 1 star
Prop Play: Decent value on Clyde Edwards Helaire to score first TD at 12-1. He's been practicing all week and ulilized in the run & pass game
Half Star
Sunday, January 24, 2021
HEDGIE NFL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND
 |
PACKERS -3.5 4 STARS (if you can catch Packers -120 there's value in that price but now that AB has been ruled out for the Bucs its only climbing higher). Bucs 3rd straight road game . Packers at home in the cold. Revenge from earlier in season. A lot of intangibles favor the Packers here
Bucs/Packers UNDER 52.5 1 star
Bills +3.5 2 stars - O-coodinator Daboll has the Bills offense humming. The addition of WR Diggs has been a huge positive addition to the Bills. Josh Allen is playing his best while Chiefs star Mahomes is not only recovering from concussion protocol but has a toe injury. Chiefs might be 15-2 BUT THEY HAVE NOT COVERED IN 9 STRAIGHT GAMES.