4:35pm Bills @ Texans
Hedgie was waiting to verify Will Fuller's status in this game. He's an integral part of their offense and is the one weapon that stretches the defenses and opens their whole offense up. Fuller is OUT for today's game with a groin injury.
The Bills are 7-1 ATS on the road this year while the Texans have not fared well as a home favorite only going 1-5 ATS. This line opened Texans -3 with a total of 39.5. It has since been bet to Texans -2.5 and the total up to 44.
JJ WATT makes an early return from a torn pectoral muscle. Most healing for this type of injury is 4 months. JJ WATT is coming back after just 2 months. This will no doubt give the texans a big boost in ENERGY. Watt will be able to harass Josh Allen a bit but Allen is a big boy and a dual threat with his legs. Hedgie's not sure Watt will even finish this game. Bill Obrien is only 1-3 in the playoffs. Coaching edge to the Bills here.
The Bills defense allows only 15 PPG . Their strength is their pass defense. Hedgie sees the Texans game plan more run oriented with Carlos Hyde. This may also lend to a lower scoring game. The Texans have struggled on defense at times as well.
This game sets up a bit like the Bills Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys were 7 point favorites and the Bills showed up and played a tough smashmouth game and earned a WIN 26-15
These Wildcards games are setting up nicely for TEASERS..with all the value bettors can get crossing over key numbers . like 3,4,6,7...if you can still get BILLS +3 the its worth 1 star ,sure. But the HEDGIE's favorite play today is two fold :
TEASER : BILLS +8.5 and UNDER 50 2 stars
Prediction: Bills 23 - Texans 20
8:15 pm Titans @ Pats
Some interesting stats to digest here . The recent loss of the Pats to the Dolphins has the media and everyone wondering what this Pats team is really all about. They could have really used a bye . But here they are and the best coach / QB tandem ever will certainly be ready. Belechik and Brady are 6-0 ATS vs Tannehill at Gillett Stadium. But this Titans team is hot. Tannehill has led this team to a 6-3-1 ATS record and since he took over as started he has the BEST QB RATING in the NFL at 117.6. Tannehill needs Derek Henry to make the play action passing game work. Henry lead the NFL in Rushing and is healthy. Normally the Hedgie would grab the 5 points on the Titans here. But just a few weeks ago the Hedgie grabbed 6.5 points with the Bills and they lost a hard fought battle 17-24. There's something special about the Pats and the playoffs. But as Belechik's staff over the years takes opportunities around the league is that magic starting to fade? The Dolphins would NEVER beat the Pats in foxborough week 17 in the past...Coach Flores came from Belechik's staff last year and his Dolphins were ready . Titans HC Mike Vrabel played for 8 years on the Pats under Belechik. He also will have his team ready for this game. Hedgie still leans to the Titans with the points ....BUT PREFERS .....
TEASER : Bills +8.5 & Titans +11 3 stars
Stay Tuned for an added post at 745pm...there's rain expected at Foxborough and depending on the outcome there may be an additional teaser on Titans & the Total...
Good Luck & Happy New Year !
- Hedgie