The Vegas Oddsmakers opened The Super Bowl Chiefs -1 and 51 Total. The money has been coming in on the Chiefs so far which has pushed most lines up to Chiefs -1 . But more noticeably the total has gone from 51 to 54.5 in most spots.
One can make many arguments for either side here and the Super Bowl is typically an over analyzed game. The Hedgie will keep it simple . In a game with a small spread that vegas has rated to be a close matchup Hedgie prefers the team with he better rushing game and better defense and that's the San Fransisco 49ers.
Mahomes will be the best player on the field and there's a lot of sentiment for Andy Reid to get his first SB victory. But Hedgie sees the 49ers as the more complete team and here are a few of the keys that Hedgie is focused on:
1) Mahomes and Chiefs passing offense - the public has seen the past two week s Mahomes light up defenses and drop 86 points on their opponents. But that was vs poor pass defenses (Texans 29th and Titans 24th). The 49ers are the #1 pass defense in the NFL. Mahomes will not have the same success
2) Mahomes Efficiency - Mahomes career stats are 76 TDS vs 17 INTS and he has some nice stats very teams that play zone defense. BUT the 49ers as mentioned are the #1 pass defense. The key here is that they don't need to blitz much. The 49er defensive Line is the heart and soul of this team and they boast 4 first round draft picks . Nick Bosa , Dee Ford, Deforest Buckner and Arik Armistead will wreak havoc. The interesting stat for the Hedgie is that of the 17 Ints that Mahomes has thrown 16 of them have come vs a 4 man front. Mahomes picks apart any team that blitzes him but the 49ers wont need to much and the Hedgie sees an INT in this game by Patrick
3) Jimmy G - Hedgie believes Jimmy G is taking unfair criticism for being a game manager. He's simply done whats been asked of him to win. The 49ers did not need to pass the ball much vs the Vikings or Packers once the lead was established. But in the regular season when they did need him Jimmy G came up big in a win at New Orleans and led them to a 48-46 Win on the road and threw for 349 yards. Bill Belechik did not want to trade Jimmy G when they did. He saw him as a QB that could win the big game . He's a stud and fully capable
4) TOTALS: of the 53 Super Bowls 11 of them have had an Over/Under in the 50s. Of those 11 games IF you had TEASED them UP and taken the UNDER that record resulted in 10-1 . As this line rises from 51 to 54.5 to 55 in some spots and perhaps 56 at kickoff . you can tease this game to above 60 !.....so which team do you tease with...? As the Hedgie builds his case for the 49ers . it's also important to note that the 49ers did not lose a game by more than 7 points all season...
Dec 21 - Loss to Rams 34-31
Dec 15 - Loss to Falcons 29-22 (wild finish 14 points final 10 seconds)
Dec 1- Loss @ . Ravens 20-17
Nov 11th - Loss vs Seahawks 24-27
The Hedgie thinks the 49ers D-Line will be the difference...
TEASER : 49ers +7.5 and UNDER 61 3 stars
some PROPS will be released Sunday at some point before kickoff...stay tuned...
DRE GREENLAW UNDER 5.5 TACKLES & ASSISTS
- Greenlaw is the stud who stopped Seattle at the one inch line in week 17. His stat line was 6 vs the Packers and 4 vs the Vikings. Both those teams play more 2 WR base sets which required Greenlaw on the field more. The Chiefs play out of a 3 WR set mostly. And now that LB Alexander is getting healthier Greenlaw may not see the field much
FIRST TD of GAME - TE KITTLE 10-1
Kittle is Jimmy G's Favorite target and this is just pure value based on the lack of 49er passing the past 2 games
hope to add more props in the day ....