Sunday, January 15, 2017


Last week Jordy Nelson took a shot in the game that broke two ribs.  He's been declared inactive today.  However, most of the money keeps flowing in on the Packers and the Over. At  79% of the money is on the over.   
   When these teams met earlier in the season the Cowboys Oline dominated and the Hedgie sees more of the same.  The Packers have won 7 straight and are here because of Aaron Rogers but the cowboys have the recipe to run the ball and keep the packers offense off the field. This will also chew up alot of the clock.   Hedgie leans cowboys and under and prefers a teaser....

TEASER:  Cowboys +1.5  & UNDER 60   (6.5 points -120)       3 stars

  The Chiefs / Steelers game time was changed due to a pending ice storm.  This has affected the line a bit too.  Money is in on the home team and has flowed in on the under  b/c of the weather conditions.    However,  if you look at this closer  there is an opportunity to go against this trend.   First of all the Chiefs are without  Linebacker Derrick Johnson and that has hurt them especially vs teams that can run the ball like the Steelers.  The Steelers are coming in hot and confident.  They already beat the Chiefs earlier this year.  Andy Reid will have his team ready and   is  19-3  coming off a bye week in his coaching career.  But the chiefs don't blow teams out.   
   Also, although there may be some icy conditions keep in mind that Arrowhead field is HEATED.  This will not be an ice bowl.  If anything the field will be wet.   So the Hedgie sees another opportunity to use a teaser to take the Steelers up over a touchdown and the total for scoring abover  37.5  with the recent dip in the line...

TEASER:  STeelers +8.5  and OVER 37.5   2 stars

Saturday, January 14, 2017


It's hard to go against the heavy trends this season.  The falcons have a great offense and have gone OVER the total 13-2-1 this year and 8-0 OVER at home.   Hedgie has benefitted form this all season and its not time to over think this trend....
   Seattle has a great defense  but Kam Chancellor is not particularly good in coverage and will be exploited.  Seattle signed Devin Hester recently and they may get a boost in their return game which will help scoring. 
     The Falcons also have been bet up from  -4 to Hedgie will continue to ride the over and play a tease with falcons over as well...

OVER 51    4 stars

Teaser:   Falcons pickem  & OVER  45   3 stars

Can you name this guy ?    Thought so.....
Earlier this season the Pats and Texans were both 2-0. The Texans came to foxboro and were embarrassed 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at QB.  Today will be more of the same.   With the vegas lines inflated towards the pats and under Hedgie prefers  teasing it....

Teaser: Pats -9.5  and UNDER  50.5  3 stars

Pats  30   Texans 13

The Hedgie is posting today by 230pm..

Sunday, January 8, 2017

Wildcard Weekend - Hedgie has 3 plays on sunday

Dolphins starting QB  Tannehill will miss today's game vs the Steelers. But The Hedgie thinks Matt Moore is just fine and gives the Dolphins a chance to win.   In Coach Adam Gase's offense Moore seems to fit better.  He has  a 105.6 passer rating vs Tannehill's 93.5 and averages  8.3  yards per pass vs Tannehill's  7.7.   
     The tall task for the Dolphins here will be their banged up secondary. Byron Maxwell is doubful and Rambo is ailing.   The Hedgie expects some big plays in this game from both teams....

Steelers/Dolphins  OVER 46.5     4 stars

TEASER:  Dolphins +17.5  & Over 40.5    3 stars

The Giants defense is playing great. Hedgie sees 'Snacks' Harrison having a big game and helping to slow down Rogers and Co.   

Giants +5.5    2 stars

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Hedgie WIldcard Weekend

The Lions have lost their luster by losing the last three games.  This is also coincidentally when Stafford injured his right hand.   Another key factor is the Lions are still without Theo Riddick.  Tall order to head into Seattle on a short week.    Although Seattle has been less dominant at home only going 4-3-1 this year vs the vegas spread  this sets up for a nice Teaser.   Seattle averages  28 ppg at home.      
   TEASER:  SEAHAWKS  -2.5  &  OVER 37     3 stars

This is Connor Cook. He was the Raiders 4th round selection and the 100th pick in the 2016 draft.  He will be making his first start on the road today vs the #1 ranked defense in Houston.   Expect a conservative gameplan and a tight low scoring game. Best betting angle is a home team teaser..

TEASER:  TEXANS +3  & UNDER 43.5    2 stars

Sunday, January 1, 2017

Happy Hedgie New Year

The Chiefs can win the AFC WEST outright IF they beat the Chargers and the Broncos beat the Raiders.  The broncos are at home and currently favored by 1.5  over their hated rivals.

Chiefs -4   3 stars  - The chargers are a divisional rival and you can bet Phillip Rivers will want to win what might be the last home game in Dan diego.  BUT this chargers team has an NFL high  19 players that have been put on IR.  Melvin Gordon will not play today either.  The Chargers are just too depleted. Most players will be thinking about where they will be living next year rather than giving it their all to beat the chiefs.

Teaser:  Raiders +8.5  & UNDER 47.5   3 stars - Raiders will most likely employ a 6th O-lineman and pound the rock all day with Matt McGloin under center. That's the Raiders strength while stopping the run is currently the Broncos weakness . Its a good matchup for Oakland.

Falcons/ Saints OVER 57  5 stars   - Falcs are the best OVER team in the NFL going  12-2-1 this season and a perfect  7-0 at home.  Drew Brees and the Saints  have nothing to lose here. Hedgie sees a similiar result to their last matchup which produced  75 points

Teaser: Giants +14 & OVER 39   2 stars

Teaser:  Bills  +3 & OVER 36  1 star