Saturday, February 6, 2016

SB 50


Hedgie sees Luke Kueckly and the panthers lighting up Stogies after this one is over……BUT the Broncos are getting slighted due to tight games they won vs the panthers who steamrolled their way into the super bowl. 
When this line opened it was Panthers -3.5 and over/under 46.  ALL the money has flowed in on the Panthers and the Under  now making the line in most spots Panthers -5.5 and 44.5 .
It's clear that if the Broncos are going to win,  it will not be on Peyton's arm yet on their #1 defense and a strong running game.  Gameplans and matchups is what this boils down to and Denver does NOT want to get in a shootout against the fast starting Panthers.  
So in this game which is always overanalyzed the Hedgie will make a value play on a teaser.
It's been a great year so far and this is not the game the hedgie swings hard. 

TEASER:  Broncos +11.5 ans UNDER 50.5  2 stars

Panthers 24  Broncos  17



PROPS:

First Player to score a TD :  GREG OLSEN  7.5/1  

MVP:  how about LUKE KUECKLY at 18/1 !
if this plays out to be a defensive game as most think the Kueckly has a legitimate shot. He's will be on the field all 4 quarters, has 4 INTS for TDs this season and will most likely amass over 10 tackles.  Just two superbowls ago guess who won the MVP?   Malcom Smith LB for the Seahawks when they player Peyton Manning.  He had 1 INT for a TD a fumble recovery and 9 tackles.  THis sounds like a typical game for LUKE.   At 18/1  it's worth a shot !


Good Luck  !  possibly more props before kickoff….

one final Prop:   CJ ANDERSON OVER 60.5 rushing yards
 3 stars

Sunday, January 24, 2016

NFL Championship Sunday

The Hedgie knows these games all get over analyzed . So the approach today is 'CURRENT FORM'. 

 The past couple weeks the Patriots are getting healthier while Peyton Manning did not look sharp last week. The Broncos also have great stats regarding their defense but one of their top cornerback (harris)  has an ailing shoulder.  The betting public is all over the Pats with 85% wagered thus far. And sometimes the public is right….

Pats -3  3 stars

 Same goes for the Panthers Cardinals matchup. The current form of the Cardinals is a bit shaky. Palmer did not look great vs the Packers last week and although statistically their defense is among the best they also have lost Db Mathieu and a starting LB Okafur down the stretch.  Advantage Panthers

Panthers -3  4 stars

The Cardinals also are a blitz happy team  With current forms this lends itself to a Panthers/OVER 
 Teaser: 
 Panthers +3.5  and Over 40.5   (6.5 pts  -120)     2 stars


Good Luck !

Sunday, January 17, 2016

NFL Playoffs

Seattle/Carolina    PASS


Denver -7    3 stars

Saturday, January 16, 2016

NFL PLAYOFFS

(hedgie is traveling so will keep the commentary to a minimum)

PATS -4.5  1 star
   Chiefs Maclin has a high ankle sprain and Hedgie weighs this heavily. Plus Edelman is back and should provide a boost 


CARDS -7 (-120)   3 stars   -  similar result as the last meeting  

Monday, January 11, 2016

NCAA National Championship


Hedgie is putting his money on Bama based on the D line.  They are the #1 scoring defense in the country and if you watched them play Michigan State you may have overheard the Spartan's QB Cook mutter  ' They are F***ing Everywhere'  .  Bama was a 10 point favorite that game and won 38-0

  Bama - 6  (-115)     3 stars

Bama / Clemson  UNDER 51  3 stars

Sunday, January 10, 2016

WILDCARD SUNDAY



A few hours before kickoff in minny and the forecast is for -3 degrees and 'FEELS LIKE'  -18
These tow teams met earlier this year and the seahawks spanks the vikes 38-7. The Hedgie puts very little weight into this other than the two teams now know each other.  That game the Vikes were banged up on defense.  This game the Vikes come in healthy and on a bit of a roll.  The Seahawks were favored by 5.5 until yesterday it was announced Marshawn Lynch would not play.  The Hedgie sees a hard fought ground game with some 3 and outs and a game of field position….Vikes pull the upset...
          Vikes  20    Seahawks  16

Vikings +5   2 stars

UNDER 40   3 stars


The Redskins are hot right now.  The Packers are not.   The Skins are 5-2  Against the spread last 7  . The Packers are 1-4  ATS last 5.  Why is this game basically a pick em?   The Packers are a public team. They have a proven Rogers at QB and have been here before. That will attract aloof of the betting money.    The skins are not proven……YET
   If you look at stats alone  Kirk Cousins might be the hottest QB in the playoffs right now.  Jordan Reed may best the best TE in the league at the moment.  Hedgie sees a Cousins/Reed TD  that will get this team  to the next round…. The Hedgie LIKES THAT…...This game sets up well for the home team…..

  Redskins    27      Packers  23

Redskins pickem   3 stars

OVER 45    2 stars