Sunday, February 5, 2017

SB PROPS

Luke Bryant Over 127.5 nations anthem

Davonte Freeman 9/1 first td

Tiololo 35/1 first td

Edelman over 95.5 yards

Hedgie last play of a GREAT SEASON...

It's been a great season for the Hedgie and the Hedgie has a lot to thank for the Falcon's who went 9-0 over at home in the Georgia Dome .  The line for this game has been stuck at Pats -3 and the Total is the Highest ever set at 59.  The Public is on the Pats and the books have been occasionally adjusting the juice to Pats -3  (-115) or (-120) . But Expect the line to stay at -3 by kickoff.  There's a lot of wiseguy money that likes the Falcons to keep the pot balanced.  Just yesterday at CG Technology Casino in Vegas a person put $1.1m on the Falcons at +3  to win $1m. The Public is also on the OVER 59  but that's being evened out by alot of wise guy money on the under.   
   So How does the Hedgie see the last game of the season playing out?    There are so many factors statistics and angles to take.  It's a great chess match in many ways.But The Hedgie's biggest focus is on the Pats Offense vs the Falcons D.  The Falcons are missing 2 players that to many are talking about.  Adrian Clayborn was the Falcons best interior lineman and he tore a biceps vs the Seahawks and is out.  The reason this is big is because the best way to impact and affect Tom Brady  is up the middle.  Brady is the quickest at getting the ball out of his hands and although the Falcons have great speed  in guys like Vic Beasley The Hedgie doesn't see them making an impact from the outside rush.   Big advantage Patriots especially  when they can change gears and attack up the middle with a big back like Legarrette Blount .  The Falcons also lost their best defender earlier in the season in Desmond Trufant.  The Falcons now rely on DBs  Jalen Collins,  5'10" Robert Alford and undrafted 5'9" Brian Poole.  Hedgie thinks Poole is going to be exploited hard by the Pats.
   Make no mistake The Falcons have a great offense and the Pats will have their hands full.   They boats the #1  defense  in the league in points allowed with just under 16 ppg.  This argument could be flawed in that the Pats really didn't play against potent offenses this year.  However, their strengths are not getting beat by the deep ball.  They were top 5 in the league at allowing only 16 pass plays of 30 yards or more all season.  They were also best in the league at Yards After Catch with a league low  4.1 YAC statistic.   This bodes well for the Pats bend but don't break and occasionally stopping the Falcons from a TD  but rather holding them to a FG.  
          Another tangible to consider is the returning health of  Dion Lewis.  He's had a big impact in the playoffs and with his return the Pats are utilizing no huddle more with him on the field which creates even more nightmares for opposing defenses.  
     With the Pats 2nd in the league in kickoffs and 3rd in punts there should not be many big plays in the kicking game.  Both teams also had a league low 11 giveaways.  Both teams protect the ball well. The Hedgie doesn't think there will be many turnovers which also cold lead to higher scoring affairs.
    The Falcons have been blitzing moren the playoffs but will have a hard decision to make in this game  . Brady is #1 in the NFL vs the bltiz.  He's throw  11 TDs and 0 ints vs the blitz this year.

      The Hedgie sees the Falcons coming out earlier and scoring but as the game wears on Belechick will adjust and Brady and the offense will be too much for the falcons to handle.  If the Pats get a lead you'll see a heavy dose of Blount which will also chew up alot of clock. 



UNDER 59    3 stars  - since 1967  9 Super Bowls   had totals listed in the 50s  and were predicted to be high scoring. The Under went  6-3.  

     Pats -3    2 stars

Patriots  30   Falcons  24




PROP PLAYS also coming and will be posted  LATER today....let's not forget about the Hedgie's call for 1st TD  in Super Bowl  XLII  when he posted  a bet on Gary Russell of the Steelers to score the first TD of the game  vs the Cards   at  33/1  !!!



Good luck !!
        


Sunday, January 22, 2017

Hedgie




Two Hot Quarterbacks. Two so so defenses.  When these teams met earlier in the season on October 30th   the Falcons won  33-32.  The Falcs are 9-0 OVER this year. Ride the trend....   

Falcons  40   Packers  35


OVER  60  4 stars


Packers +6 1 star


Late Game  :  leaning Steelers with +6 or more    1 star

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Hedgie NFL SUNDAY



Last week Jordy Nelson took a shot in the game that broke two ribs.  He's been declared inactive today.  However, most of the money keeps flowing in on the Packers and the Over. At Sportsbook.ag  79% of the money is on the over.   
   When these teams met earlier in the season the Cowboys Oline dominated and the Hedgie sees more of the same.  The Packers have won 7 straight and are here because of Aaron Rogers but the cowboys have the recipe to run the ball and keep the packers offense off the field. This will also chew up alot of the clock.   Hedgie leans cowboys and under and prefers a teaser....

TEASER:  Cowboys +1.5  & UNDER 60   (6.5 points -120)       3 stars



  The Chiefs / Steelers game time was changed due to a pending ice storm.  This has affected the line a bit too.  Money is in on the home team and has flowed in on the under  b/c of the weather conditions.    However,  if you look at this closer  there is an opportunity to go against this trend.   First of all the Chiefs are without  Linebacker Derrick Johnson and that has hurt them especially vs teams that can run the ball like the Steelers.  The Steelers are coming in hot and confident.  They already beat the Chiefs earlier this year.  Andy Reid will have his team ready and   is  19-3  coming off a bye week in his coaching career.  But the chiefs don't blow teams out.   
   Also, although there may be some icy conditions keep in mind that Arrowhead field is HEATED.  This will not be an ice bowl.  If anything the field will be wet.   So the Hedgie sees another opportunity to use a teaser to take the Steelers up over a touchdown and the total for scoring abover  37.5  with the recent dip in the line...

TEASER:  STeelers +8.5  and OVER 37.5   2 stars

Saturday, January 14, 2017

NFL PLAYOFFS



It's hard to go against the heavy trends this season.  The falcons have a great offense and have gone OVER the total 13-2-1 this year and 8-0 OVER at home.   Hedgie has benefitted form this all season and its not time to over think this trend....
   Seattle has a great defense  but Kam Chancellor is not particularly good in coverage and will be exploited.  Seattle signed Devin Hester recently and they may get a boost in their return game which will help scoring. 
     The Falcons also have been bet up from  -4 to -6.....today Hedgie will continue to ride the over and play a tease with falcons over as well...

OVER 51    4 stars


Teaser:   Falcons pickem  & OVER  45   3 stars




Can you name this guy ?    Thought so.....
Earlier this season the Pats and Texans were both 2-0. The Texans came to foxboro and were embarrassed 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at QB.  Today will be more of the same.   With the vegas lines inflated towards the pats and under Hedgie prefers  teasing it....


Teaser: Pats -9.5  and UNDER  50.5  3 stars

Pats  30   Texans 13

The Hedgie is posting today by 230pm..