Saturday, January 31, 2015

SUPER BOWL XLIX- gameday update



The Hedgie decided to head to Las Vegas this weekend to feel and taste the atmosphere.  Today there's a swarm of Seahawks fans all descending upon vegas and at least at the Golden Nugget they are  all impacting the line…..it's currently Seattle -1 and 47.5  which plays into the angle the hedgie will be taking this game.

 There are split opinions on how good Seattle's defense really is.  There's no doubt they are very good  but some tout them as an all time best  and if you look at this years statistics  they are very strong as well.  But the Hedgie will point out they have not played great quarterbacks down the stretch: Cam Newton , Shuan Hill,  Kapernick (who had a down year) Twice, The Cardinals Lindley and when they played the Eagles it was Sanchez.    When they have faced  good quarterbacks they have struggled at times.   
  Also, a lot of  sharp money is coming in on the UNDER. It opened at 49 and is now down to 47.5 and even 46.5 in some spots.  

  The Hedgie rarely goes BIG on this game since it's so over analyzed so for this game :

TEASER:   6.5 points PATS +7.5  and UNDER 53.5   2 stars

Prop bets:

1)  NO SCORE First 6:30 Minutes of the Game

2)  Le Garett Blount UNDER 62.5  rushing yards (sportsbook.ag)

3)  Marshawn Lynch UNDER 90.5  rushing yards  (sportsbook.ag)

4)  First Half  UNDER 23.5

5)  OVER 3.5 FGs for the game


 6)  First Player to score TD  :  Tim Wright  401/    (sportsbook,ag)



if you recall a previous Super Bowl between the Steelers and Cardinals the Hedgie made a prop bet  that Gary Russell the FB of the Steelers would score first TD and he HiT at 18/1

The Seahawks will be keying on Gronk all game and Tim Wright could be the one to exploit them over the middle.


Good Luck !!!



GAMEDAY UPDATE **

rodney harrison acknowledged that he watched cam chancellor in warmups and he does NOT look 100%.  this just reaffirm the pats play here.  if you don't like the teaser then play them at a pick em

hedge added to his teaser pats & under  

and also found a GRONK to score first TD prop at 7/1    so will add to that theme: the pats will attack the middle of seattle's secondary with both TEs

another note:  Seattle's K  Hauschka missed 6 FGs  all year.  THREE OF THEM CAME IN THIS STADIUM VS THE CARDS. Hmmmm….





Sunday, January 18, 2015

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY




This game has a lot to do with Roger's calf.  But the Hedgie went back and watched week 1 game and a lot has changed in 134 days.   Not only have players changed and injuries occurred the last score  packers 16 Seahawks 36  was a bit lopsided because packers Lineman BULAGA  went down.  he was replaced by Derek Sherrod  who let a couple big sacks occur which arguably change the entire game.

   The Seahawks have parted ways with Percy Harvin who got a lot of action week 1  and has an injury toPaul Richardson who tore his ACL last week vs Carolina.  

When this game was played week 1 The Seahawks were favored at home by  4.5  points.  Now the line opened at 7 and has been climbing to 8.5  as of this post .

 The Hedgie knows for the Packers to WIN outright they will have to play a fantastic game. But in the world of gambling The Hedgie loves searching for hidden value and getting over a touchdown in this spot feels like the right play. 

  Let's take a trip down Hedgie Memory Lane....last year the Seahawks hosted the Saints in this same game.  In week 13  they had blasted them at home  34-7  as 6.5 points favorites.  Just a few weeks later the Saints returned to the Championship game as  9.5  and/or 10 point dogs.  They put up a great fight and lost  23-15  .  (A HEDGIE COVER)

Look for more the same today.  The Packers will get some run game going with Lacy and Starks and Rogers will make a few really good throws  perhaps one to Jordy Nelson deep vs Maxwell.  

PACKERS  +8.5  3 stars


Last week starting Center Brian Stork went down vs the Ravens.   Considering how it took the Patriots all season to solidify their line after the sudden trade-off Logan Mankins in the preseason , The Hedgie this is something that is being overlooked by the bettors.   A lot of attention is being given to the Patriots last meeting with the colts where the ran all over them and also the media is more focused on more sensational stories as the Colts LB not making the trip for accused rape or Trent Richardson not making the trip as well. But the best player not being talked about who is out is STORK.  Vegas gives us some nice value here. Belechik likes to take away the opponents best Wr  which might happen with Revis and TY Hilton but Luck is playing great football and last week found 8 different receivers vs the Broncos.  

COLTS +7    4 Stars

Monday, January 12, 2015

Ncaa championship

Ohio state / oregon OVER 73 2 stars

Sunday, January 11, 2015

NFL PLAYOFF SUNDAY

Packers -5.5     3 stars

Packers/Cowboys OVER 51.5  2 stars

Broncos -7   3 stars

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Hedgie Playoff Saturday

RAVENS +7     3 stars


Sunday, January 4, 2015

WILDCARD SUNDAY

Colts/Bengals  UNDER 48.5  2 stars

Cowboys -6  2 stars