NFL SUNDAY WEEK 16

1PM Falcons +11 1 star  

4:05PM Broncos +3 1 star

4:05Pm TEASER :   Panthers +7.5 & Rams +7.5 2  Stars

NFL SUNDAY

 1pm BEARS +3 3 stars

1pm TEASER :  Colts -1 & 49ers +3 2 stars

1pm TEASER :  Seahawks -0.5 & UNDER 49.5 2 stars

stay tuned for late additions...

Hedgie Saturday 2 NFL & 1 NCAA Play.

 4:30pm.  TEASER Packers -2 & OVER 45.5  3 stars

8:15pm Broncos +3  FIRST HALF 2 stars 

           Hedgie suspects Bills may have a slow start / hangover after a great win vs Steelers last week. They now travel to Mile High where Denver has player well early in games.  

      11/22  -Led the Dolphins 13-10 first half. eventually won 20-13

     11/29 - discard NO QBS  vs saints

     12/6 - Lead the Chiefs 10-9 First Half before losing 22-16

     12/13 - lead Panthers 13-7  then prevailed 32-27

     The Broncos are thin in the secondary and Bills O coordinator Brian Daboll is one of the best.   Hedgie suspects the Bills will come in and start slow but adjust and find ways to exploit the Broncos secondary with Diggs & co.     The money has actually come in on Broncos and pushed line from +6 to +5.5.    Hedgie's best angle is Broncos first half +3. 

7:00 pm Stanford +7 2 stars 

THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL

 

The Raiders have scored over 30 points in 4 of their last 6 games . The Chargers were the #2 offense in the  NFL  and after a three game slump appear to be back.  Keenan Allen is questionable but will play at some capacity .   The Raiders are 9-3-1 OVER this season and Hedgie thinks tonight gives some nice added value with the line dropping from 54 open  to  51.5....

OVER 51.5  3 stars 

Hedgie Sunday

 Titans / Jags OVER 52.5  3 stars

Packers/ Lions OVER 55  2 stars

Raiders/Colts OVER 52 2 stars

Teaser:  Chiefs -1 & Titans -1 2 stars 

Hedgie taking a break today.....

NFL SUNDAY

 Lions +3 3 stars 

Dolphins / Bengals UNDER 43 1 star 

Rams -2.5 2 stars 

Raiders -7 (-120) 3 stars 

HEDGIE SATURDAY

 Duke Over 61 3 stars 

UCLA over 55.5 2 stars 

HEDGIE SUNDAY. NFL WEEK 12 - 3 plays

(Former Wake Forest QB Kendall Hinton will be Broncos QB today)

 1:00 PM  Titans @ Colts - 

     These two team played just 2 weeks ago and the Colts got the best of the Titans in a 34-17 win.  That score was a bit misleading since the Colts had TWO BLOCKED PUNTS one of which went for a TD.  The Colts have some injuries this time :   DT Buckner , DE Autry and LE Okereke are all ruled out for the Colts. While RB J Taylor will also miss due to covid 19.   The Titans are 5-1 ATS  their last 6 games when avenging a same season loss. The Titans have a road warrior mentality and Hedgie suspects will win this game outright.

     TITANS +3 3 stars 

1:00 pm. Bills / Chargers 

     Strong Trends here as the Chargers have gone OVER in 7 straight games while the Bills are 7-2-1 OVER in their games.  Josh Allen is starting to really gel with WR Diggs and The Chargers and Herbert have the #2 offense n the NFL

          OVER 51.5  2 stars

4:05 PM  Saints @ Broncos

     This will be one of the more interesting games of the season as the Broncos have ALL FOUR QUARTERBACKS INELIGIBLE DUE TO COVID 19.   

      Vegas has already adjusted this line from Saints -5.5 and 43.5 Total to Saints -15. and 36.5 Total.

  Kendall Hinton was brought up from the Broncos practice squad. He was a QB at Wake Forest but primarily a running QB.   With Taysom Hill under center for NO and Hinton for Denver expect to see  A LOT OF WILDCAT . This game should easily stay....

        UNDER 36.5 2 stars

HEDGIE SATURDAY

12:00 pm Texas Tech/ Okl St OVER 53 2 stars

12:00 pm  SMU/ECU OVER 67 3 stars 

3:30 pm   AUBURN/ BAMA OVER 62.5 3 stars

8:00 pm Arizona +11 3  Stars

NCAA

 South Florida / CFU OVER 68   2 stars

Happy Thanksgiving !

 TEXANS -3 1 star

Teaser : Football team +9  & UNDER 52.5 1 star

NFL WEEK 11

CHIEFS -7 (-115) 4 stars 

      Andy Reid is stellar off a bye week.  Revenge spot as Raiders only team to give Chiefs a loss/ Raiders been dealing with covid issues as well.   

Ravens /Titans UNDER 50 2 stars -

  heavy dose of D Henry as ravens are banged up up front and havent been able to stop the run recently. 

Hedgie NCAA Week 12

 Iowa -1 3 stars

Cinci/ Central Fla UNDER 65.5 2 stars

stay tuned for additional early morning  release ....

Hedgie has it's first 5 star of the season

 

The Ravens are the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.  The Patriots are depleted in many ways and currently have the 25th rush defense in the NFL.   These two teams are rivals and the Ravens will not take the Pats lightly.   The Pats are off a short week in which they almost lost to the Jets with Joe Flacco at QB.  Normally ,  this would be a circle the bandwagon kind of game for Belechick and the Pats. But let's not forget the Pats had a league high 8 players opt out at the beginning of the season.  This included starters such as Safety Patrick Chung and Linebacker Dont'a Hightower .   No need to over think this one.  Bet it early as the line will be higher than -7 by kickoff when people start analyzing the sunday night game .

RAVENS -7 5 STARS

Dolphins/Chargers OVER 48 3 stars

Cardinals -2.5  3 stars

Rams -2.5 1 star 

Vikings -3 1 star  (MNF )

SATURDAY HEDGIE....Coming off a 5-0 saturday .....

 Michigan +6.5  2 stars

Kentucky/ Vandy. UNDER 42 2 stars

Florida/Arkansas OVER 60 3 stars

NFL SUNDAY...Can Hedgie stay HOT after a 5-0 Saturday !!!?

Raiders/Chargers OVER 52.5 4 stars -

 6 of 7 Raiders games have gone over. Toss out the Zeta wind game in Cleveland last week.   Chargers are fast starters and have the #2  (417 ypg) offense. No Joey Bosa today helps the over too

 Texans -6.5 (-115)  3 stars 

 QB Watson is hot while the beat up Jags are without QB Minshew and will be starting Rookie QB. Luton.

TEASER :  RAVENS +6  & UNDER 53.5 -  3 stars  

 two very strong defenses. Ravens LT Stanley is out.  Ravens defense fast and will give QB Rivers trouble.  Colts also most likely without WR TY Hilton.  Not much scoring here . bounceback for Ravens

NCAA HEDGIE SATURDAY

 Baylor +14. 3 stars

Arizona St +11.5 3 stars

Notre Dame +5.5 2 stars

Oklahoma/Kansas OVER 63.5 2 stars

Tulane -3. 2 stars

NFL SUNDAY - ZETA WEEKEND UPDATE

 Yesterday the Iowa / NW game hit UNDER 47....the other 3 plays are all active today..

Pats/Bills UNDER 41  Friday....today 40.5   still 1 star

Brown/ Raiders UNDER 51 Friday ...today 47 ...pass at that number

Bears / Saints UNDER 44 Friday...today 42.5 pass

ADD ON Plays:

COLTS -3 (-120) 2 stars  

TEASER :  Packers Pickem & Titans -1 2 stars 

Hedgie Alert - It's a Cold & Windy ZETA WEEKEND ... (time sensitive - get plays in sooner than later)

 

This weekend a chill and strong winds will sweep through the midwest and up to the North Atlantic...Hedgie has targeted  some games that was leaning UNDER  and now is pulling the trigger on those games BEFORE the lines move down....

SATURDAY :  

IOWA / NORTHWESTERN   330pm   Iowa City expecting high winds...UNDER 47  2 stars 

SUNDAY :

Pats/Bills  UNDER 41  2 stars  -  Pats without  2 WRs  Edelman and Harry.  Expect  a big run package from the Pats 

Browns/ Raiders  UNDER 51 2 stars -  with high winds Baker Mayfield will struggle passing the ball especially with star WR  Beckham out.  Raiders and Gruden will attack the Browns weaker run defense with heavy dose of Jones.   

Bears/Saints  UNDER 44 2 stars   -  Saints on grass and most likely with star Wrs  Thomas and Emmanuel.  Brees arm strength not what it used to be so expect a heavy dose of  RB Kamara.  Bears will rely on their defense to try and win this one.  

These plays aren't sexy like  'ZETA JONES' but The Hedgie is here to make money .......

Stay tuned for more plays......

HEDGIE ALERT : Thursday Night play...coming off a 4-1 NFL weekend...

 

The Falcons are 1-6 and have already fired their head coach.  After their latest heartbreaking loss the media is calling for change.   Matt Ryan is a veteran and this team will continue to fight under new HC Raheem Morris.   Ryan and the offense is actually playing well.  The past 2 games Ryans has thrown 5 TDs and 0 Ints .  Tonight the Falcons head to play Carolina who is 3-4 and won their last meeting in week 5  23-16

    The Panthers were hoping to get back RB McCaffery tonight but he  has been ruled out.   With rain and wind in the forecast the Hedgie sees this as a tough divisional battle.  The  preferred play is :

TEASER :  Falcons +8.5 and UNDER 57.5  3 stars

NFL SUNDAY

 Packers -3 (-115) 4 stars - perfect bounceback spot fort Rogers & Co vs Texans terrible defense

Panthers +6.5 - 3 stars . Saints without top WRs. Thomas & Emmanual.  Panthers O Coordinator Brady and QB Bridgewater return to N.O. and are really clicking on same page

Lions +2   3 stars -  can't buy into the Falcons after last week's win.  Big day for Stafford

Bucs -5  2 stars - Bucs really gelling.  Defense is legit and Raiders entire OLine had to quarantine this week over void fears.  4 starters return but Tackle Brown is out.

Bears +6.5 (-115) - 1 star    With Foles as starter bears are a balance team with a strong D.  Just too many points for the Rams to give

NCAA WEEK 7 - BIG SLATE TODAY. - 7 PLAYS !

 Va Tech / Wake Forest  OVER 68 3 stars

NC State  +15  3 stars

Tulane +21 3 stars

Cincinnati +2.5 3 stars

Penn State -6 2 stars

Iowa -3 (-115)  2 stars

Kentucky -3.5 1 star

NFL WEEK 6

 Lions -3  3 stars

Packers -1.5 2 stars

Broncos/ Patriots UNDER 44.5 2 stars

Steelers -3  1 star

NCAA. SATURDAY Oct 17th

 UVA/ Wake Forest OVER 57 3 stars

Auburns -2.5 3 stars

Kentucky +6.5 2 stars

Central Florida -2.5 1 star

NFL WEEK 5

 Bengals +13  1 star. 

 Lamar Jackson missed some practice this week but is fine.  But the Ravens hav e not been playing sharp lately and 13 is too many to a Divisional foe who's 4-0. ATS and playing with confidence and hope behind QB Burrow

Teaser : Panthers +8 and OVER 48 - 2 stars 

  Hard to back the injury riddled Falcons here even if it's a 'desperation' home game.  They are coming off a short week and the Panthers have been playing well lately . Teddy Bridgewater has a great record as an underdog and Coach Rhule is doing a good job having his team ready.   

Steelers -7  3 stars 

   Steelers have had extra rest to prepare after an early bye week due to the Titans Covid problems.  Eagles played well out west last week but come in very banged up along the OLINE missing Brooks and Peters while Lane Johnson is hobbled.  Terrible spot against a string blitz happy defense.  

Teaser :  The Football Team +14 & OVER 39.5.  3  stars 

(6.5 point teaser -120)

  Football Team made the right move to Kyle Allen at QB. He knows Scott Turner's the system well from running it in Carolina and had success.   Allen is also a leader and the team will be behind him. The NFC east is still up for grabs and the Football Team still has hope regardless of how futile it is.    Rams have travelled well but also have had a brutal schedule on trip to the east coast.  Sean McVay has made some nice offensive adjustments this season and would like nothing more than to beat his old team.  Leaning over but love the teaser based on the Washington QB change

Considering.  Cardinals in a teaser with Steelers....Jets. OL Becton out will be brutal for the immobile Flacco ...

Lines have moved quite a bit and Hedgie is leaning towards later games. so stay tuned...possible plays :

  Vikings at +7....Colts was a lean but not without star LB Leonard... NYG at the right price...will post later today.....stay tuned !

NCAA SATURDAY

 NAVY / TEMPLE   UNDER 51  2 stars   - Navy has really struggled on offense scoring only 10 points the past 10 Quarters  while Temple is playing its first game of 2020. Temple will no doubt be rusty and Navy will control this tempo.  

Kansas State +10  vs TCU   3 stars  -  TCU coming off a big win and not typically a good favorite .  Since 2016  TCU is just 5-15-1  as a favorite.   On the other hand  Kansas St  is 7-2  as an underdog  with it's 2nd yr coach Chris Klieman.  

NCAA FRIDAY NIGHT

 Louisville-5 3 stars 

NFL WEEK 4

 BUCS -7  3 stars  

Cardinals -3 2 stars

stay tuned for later games. some lines are moving....

NCAA Week 5

 Texas -10   (-118)   3 stars

Arkansas +17.5 (-115) 3 stars

don't forget to shop lines if possible...these days there are a lot of discrepancies and they all add up over the course of a season...

NFL THURSDAY NIGHT

 

The 0-3 Jets host  the 0-3 Broncos who start rookie QB  Breet Rypien. This is the 9th starting QB for the Broncos since Peyton Manning retired.    Jets are favored by 1 with a low total set at 41.  Considering the bad turf at MetLife Stadium  the Hedgie will PASS and stay focused on the weekend.....  for those action junkies perhaps a broncos /under teaser  would work....

NFL WEEK 3

 

The Washington Football Team is down their best OLineman and already has the 2nd worst offense in the NFL.  RT Moses is also questionable.  The money is coming in on the Browns and the line has gone from -7 to -7.5.  The Browns have historically not been a good covering team laying points. Hedgie prefers a teaser here as favorite play :

TEASER     BROWNS -1 & UNDER 51     3 STARS

Cardinals -5.5  1 STAR

Patriots -6.5  2 STARS

Texans +4.5  2 STARS

Falcons -3  2 STARS

NCAA

 BYU -14      2 stars

DUKE/UVA UNDER 46 2 stars

NFL WEEK 2

 Rams +2. 2 stars

Packers/Lions OVER 50 1 star

Bucs/Panthers OVER 46.5  1 star

stay tuned for sunday am thoughts ....

Hedgie's first College Football play of the season....

 WAKE FOREST. PICKEM   3 stars

Wake has already had a game and many practices. They are well coached and will improve each week.  On the other hand NC State had to cancel their first game due to Covid 19 and has also had to cancel many practices.    Wolfpack will be rusty .. Take Wake Forest 

Hedgie starts the Season 4-2.....

The Hedgie typically likes to fade rookie QBs.   Last week Joe Burrow showed his wheels off and ran for a 23 yard TD.  He also brought the Bengals down for a potential game winning TD in the 4th Q.  Burrow showed poise while Baker and the Browns played poorly in a 38-6 loss in Baltimore.  

  The Hedgie doe not think the Browns should be favored by 6 here but will stay patient and not back the rookie QB just yet .   Money is coming in on OVER 42 and has pushed that up to 43.5....

A teaser on the dog & over is tempting but Hedgie will PASS  and prepare for the weekend...

 

The Hedgie is off to a 1-0 start ...

The NFL is under way and we got a first hand look at some of the nuances we'll see.  The Chiefs started where they left off and dominated the Texans.  Typically the defenses will be ahead of the offenses at this stage especially with no preseason.  There were some UNDERS to be had earlier in the week but those lines  have come down.
 

  Here we go:

Falcons +1.5   1 star - The Falcons HC Dan Quinn was about to lose his job last year at 1-7. But the team rallied and finished strong with a 6-2 record.  Hedgie thinks this will carry over into week 1. The seahawks are getting alot of attention as a great road team and they were last yr. But Hedgie thinks this is a bad spot vs an overlooked Falcons team.

Panthers +3 1 star - This line has jumped from a pickem all the way to Las Vegas Raiders -3.  Not sure why.  Once again a team traveling across country for an early start tyically does not  fare well.  Panthers have a new look but Teddy Bridewater under center is a vet and is. 16-2 ATS as an underdog.  

Cardinals +7   2 stars - a divisional foe Hedgie thinks QB Murray will improve in his 2nd year and now has a superstar WR in Hopkins.  Word out of Cards camp is that the offense is humming at a very fast pace.  Super Bowl losers usually have a hangover and are 3-18 ATS week 1 of the following season

TEASER;  Packers +8.5. & Bears +8.5 -  NFC NORTH /Black & Blue Teaser - this will be a hard fought division and Hedgie loves grabbing points across key numbers like. 3,4,6,7....      1 star 

3 team 10 point UNDER TEASER -  1 star sticking with the theme that the defenses will be ahead of the offenses these 3 games fit nicely . young QBs vs strong defenses.  

   BILLS/JETS UNDER 49

  CHARGERS /BENGALS UNDER 51.5

 EAGS/ Washington UNDER 52 

 

Well Folks,  It's been a crazy year and this photo sums up 2020 for The Hedgie.   It's hard to believe the NFL season begins tonight with the Chiefs hosting the Texans at Arrowhead with only 17,000 allowed in attendance.  

There is a lot of new info and trends to be watching and be sure that The Hedgie is all over that ! That's what excites the Hedgie most....home field advantages will be different ;  Covid 19 IR lists ;  no preseasons ....some new angles for sure...

Tonight The Chiefs are favored by too much over a team that made the playoffs last year and beat the Chiefs last year as well...

So tonight let's start the season with a 1 star teaser:

Texans +15.5 and OVER 47.5 

SUPER BOWL

The Vegas Oddsmakers opened The Super Bowl Chiefs -1 and 51 Total.  The money has been coming in on the Chiefs so far which has pushed most lines up to Chiefs -1 . But more noticeably the total has gone from 51 to 54.5 in most spots. 

  One can make many arguments for either side here and the Super Bowl is typically an over analyzed game.  The Hedgie will keep it simple . In a game with a small spread that vegas has rated to be a close matchup Hedgie prefers the team with he better rushing game and better defense and that's the San Fransisco 49ers.

  Mahomes will be the best player on the field and there's a lot of sentiment for Andy Reid to get his first SB victory.  But Hedgie sees the 49ers as the more complete team and here are a few of the keys that Hedgie is focused on:

1) Mahomes and Chiefs passing offense - the public has seen the past two week s Mahomes light up defenses and drop 86 points on their opponents. But that was vs poor pass defenses (Texans 29th and Titans 24th).  The 49ers are the #1 pass defense in the NFL. Mahomes will not have the same success

2) Mahomes Efficiency - Mahomes career stats are 76 TDS  vs 17 INTS and he has some nice stats very teams that play zone defense.  BUT the 49ers as mentioned are the #1 pass defense. The key here is that they don't need to blitz much. The 49er defensive Line is the heart and soul of this team and they boast 4 first round draft picks . Nick Bosa , Dee Ford, Deforest Buckner and Arik Armistead will wreak havoc.  The interesting stat for the Hedgie is that of the 17 Ints that Mahomes has thrown 16 of them have come vs a 4 man front. Mahomes picks apart any team that blitzes him but the 49ers wont need to much and the Hedgie sees an INT in this game by Patrick

3) Jimmy G -  Hedgie believes Jimmy G is taking unfair criticism for being a game manager. He's simply done whats been asked of him to win.  The 49ers did not need to pass the ball much vs the Vikings or Packers once the lead was established. But in the regular season when they did need him Jimmy G came up big in a win at New Orleans and led them to a 48-46 Win on the road and threw for 349 yards.   Bill Belechik did not want to trade Jimmy G when they did.  He saw him as a QB that could win the big game . He's a stud and fully capable

4) TOTALS:  of the 53 Super Bowls 11 of them have had an Over/Under in the 50s. Of those 11 games  IF you had TEASED them UP and taken the UNDER that record resulted in 10-1 .  As this line rises from 51 to 54.5  to 55 in some spots and perhaps 56 at kickoff . you can tease this game to above 60 !.....so which team do you tease with...?   As the Hedgie builds his case for the 49ers . it's also important to note that the 49ers did not lose a game by more than 7 points all season...
    Dec 21 - Loss to Rams 34-31
    Dec 15 - Loss to Falcons 29-22 (wild finish 14 points final 10 seconds)
   Dec 1- Loss @ . Ravens  20-17
   Nov 11th - Loss vs Seahawks 24-27

 

The Hedgie thinks the 49ers D-Line will be the difference...

TEASER :  49ers +7.5 and UNDER 61  3 stars 


some PROPS will be released Sunday at some point before kickoff...stay tuned...

DRE GREENLAW  UNDER 5.5 TACKLES & ASSISTS
   - Greenlaw is the stud who stopped Seattle at the one inch line in week 17.  His stat line was 6 vs the Packers and 4 vs the Vikings. Both those teams play more 2 WR base sets which required Greenlaw on the field more. The Chiefs play out of a 3 WR set mostly. And now that LB Alexander is getting healthier Greenlaw may not see the field much

FIRST TD of GAME -  TE KITTLE 10-1 
    Kittle is Jimmy G's Favorite target and this is just pure value based on the lack of 49er passing the past 2 games

hope to add more props in the day ....

The Hedgie will be posting at . 2pm...

no time for analysis...

Titans +7.5  2 stars

   (chiefs DT chris jones being injured swayed the hedgie's mind here .  Vrable's moto all week has been .  'WHY CHANGE NOW?'     Titans dominate in the trenches and hedgie likes the points

TEASER: niners -2 & over 40  2 stars - niners better in all facets of the game. packers healthier and rogers will make some plays but not enough

NFL Sunday Playoffs

3:05pm   Texans @ Chiefs 
   
   Will Fuller is a go for the Texans and that really opens up their offense.  In week 6 these two teams met and the Texans came away with a 31-24 W.  The Chiefs have played better defense as of late but this game still lends itself to high scoring .  Texans secondary  is a weakness that Mahomes and the Chiefs should be able to exploit.

   OVER 51  2 stars 

  Teaser:  Chiefs -3 and over 45 1 star 


6:40 pm  Seahawks @ Packers 
        The Packers offense is now more run based featuring RB Jones.  The Seahawks are 8-1 on the road this year . The seahawks like to run the ball and keep things close so QB Wilson can win the game in the 4th Q.    

    TEASER :  Seahawks +10.5 and UNDER 52 . 2 stars 

NFL . DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS . SATURDAY & FCS Championship

It's a big weekend ahead and as a bettor you could make an argument for ANY of the teams you WANT to win.  So let's  be careful and not bet on who we 'want'  or give too much credence to our 'recency biases'...

Having said that let's look at some meaningful trends and historical stats..

Wildcard last week :   UNDER 4-0

Divisional Round since 2010 :  OVER 24-12

Divisional Rounds sine 2011 :  FAVORITES of 9 or more points are  8-2  ATS

Divisional Rounds since 2016: HOME TEAMS   6-0 ATS on Saturday  1-4 ATS on Sunday 

The past 3 years Divisional Rounds OVERS 8-4 ...

NOON :  FCS Championship   JMU vs North Dakota State

    This line opened pickem and 52 total.  Both these teams are very good.  ND St #1   15-0 vs  JMU #2 14-1 . Both teams have strong defenses and first year Head Coaches who play a bit conservative.  The play here was earlier in the week when it became apparent there would be high 25mph winds.  SO the UNDER has been bet all way action from 52 down to 47.  It could still be a small play under but Hedgie sees some money in on ND st and would prefer a tease getting one of these teams over a full TD.  Right now there are some . ND st -1.5s out there .   So the play is :

    TEASER :  JMU +7.5 and UNDER 53  2 stars

4:35pm :  Vikings @  49ers 

   The Hedgie  has bet ON this Viking Team a lot this year . There's a lot to like as Kirk Cousin's has had a great statistical year and thrives when he can establish the run with RB Cook and execute play action.  Zimmer is a great defensive coach and you saw what they did to the Saints last weekend.  BUT , they now much travel on a short week (only 6 days) after a hard fought OT game n the dome and go play a well rested and healthier San Fran team outdoors on grass.  The 49 ers are getting 3 defensive starters back and Hedgie thinks this will be the difference. With the speedy Dee Ford back this will allow San Fran to put a lot of pressure on Cousins.    When chased out of the pocket Cousins is at his worst. He tends to makle poor decisions. Not many teams can force this  as the Vikes prefer the running game and play action. But the 49ers can and will .  On the other side of the ball the 49ers also have a strong running game and once they establish the run with their 3 headed backfield of Mossert , Breida and Coleman then the play action will open up.  The 49ers added WR Sanders at the trade deadline. The combo of Sanders Deebo Samuels and TE Kittle really opened up the offense for Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy G as the season wore on. As this game wears on the 49ers will pull away.  Perhaps we'll see a bad Cousins INT as well so a little more scoring is possible with teams knowing this could be their last game of the season.  As mentioned above the stats and trends point to the home favorite and the over......

   San Fran -7  2 stars 

   OVER 44 1 star

  TEASER : San Fran -1 & OVER 3 stars 

8:15   Titans @  Ravens

    What a great upset for the Titans last week !  Vrable stole a page from Belechik by establishing the run , getting a lead, manipulating  the game clock down and playing field position . And it worked.  That's who this team is. A run first team behind NFL rushing leader Travis Henry with Ryan Tannehill making plays off play action.  The Titan WRs  came into their own as the year wore on as well and  rookie AJ Brown is a real threat on the outside.

    BUT once again this road warrior team must now play their 3rd week in a row ON THE ROAD on a SHORT WEEK.  Henry has carried the ball 66 times the past 2 games and hedgie wonders if this team will run out of gas.  The Ravens are the leagues best team statistically . They won home field throughout and average over 30 points per game behind a strong defense and MVP QB Lamar Jackson.  Starting RB Ingram is questionable with a calf but Hedgie is not concerned. He will probably play but backup GUS Edwards is also very good and RB Justice Hill is coming on strong as well.  The Ravens are the highest scoring team in the first quarter this year. with a +94 point differential.  They are very well coached and will be ready .  They also have the best kicker in the NFL who they relied on when the 49ers came to town. The 49ers gave the Ravens all they could handle earlier in the season and with the game tied 17-17 . Justin Tucker hit a 49 yarder with no time left.   Tucker is the most accurate kicker in NFL History and he provides the Ravens with a huge advantage. Speaking of Kickers , have you ever heard of Greg Joseph?  The Titans signed him late in the season and he's made all his PATS BUT HAS YET TO ATTEMPT A FG this year .  Hedgie sees a missed FG saturday night from Joseph which will hurt the Titans.  Missed FGs also lead to opponents points !  After missed FGs this year . NFL teams converted to points 84% of the time.  So rather than thinking of a missed FG as a lean towards the under it can also lead to a quick strike and good field position for the opponent.  Once again the well rested team who earned home field advantage should prevail and cover.   Oh ya, one last  note -  Titans LB Brown who got hurt in the Pats game is ruled out. He's very good at covering TEs which s a strength of the Ravens offense. Since there is rain in the forecast and the line has moved up from Ravens -9  & 47 . to Ravens -10 and 47 the HEDGIE will stick with just one play this game:

   TEASER :  RAVENS -3 and OVER 41  3 stars    (you can still get -9.5 and do a 6.5 point teaser)

EXOTIC TEASER :   It's been another good year for the Hedgie  so why not throw in a 6 team Teaser Saturday Slammer !    Take 6.5 points and get   5/5  - 1

   JMU +7.5

   JMU / ND State UNDER 52.5

   San Fran -0.5

   San Fran / Vikings OVER 37.5

   Ravens -3

   Ravens/Titans OVER 40.5

  

    $100 wins $550 

  

The HEdgie was 2-0 yesterday and will be posting late again today....

Late post:

  all teasers:

   Saints -1 and UNDER 56  1 star

   Saints -1 and Seahawks +7 . 1 star

   Seahawks +7 and UNDER 51 1 star

Hedgie Wildcard Weekend ! Happy New Year

4:35pm  Bills @ Texans 
    Hedgie was waiting to verify Will Fuller's status in this game.  He's an integral part of their offense and is the one weapon that stretches the defenses and opens their whole offense up.  Fuller is OUT for today's game with a groin injury.  
    The Bills are 7-1 ATS  on the road this year while the Texans have not fared well as a home favorite only going 1-5 ATS.  This line opened Texans -3 with a total of 39.5.  It has since been bet to Texans -2.5 and the total up to 44.
     JJ WATT makes an early return from a torn pectoral muscle.  Most healing for this type of injury is 4 months.  JJ WATT is coming back after just 2 months. This will no doubt give the texans a big boost in ENERGY.  Watt will be able to harass Josh Allen a bit but Allen is a big boy and a dual threat with his legs.  Hedgie's not sure Watt will even finish this game.  Bill Obrien is only 1-3 in the playoffs. Coaching edge to the Bills here.
    The Bills defense allows only 15 PPG . Their strength is their pass defense.  Hedgie sees the Texans game plan more run oriented with Carlos Hyde. This may also lend to a lower scoring game.  The Texans have struggled on defense at times as well.
      This game sets up a bit like the Bills Cowboys on Thanksgiving.  The Cowboys were 7 point favorites and the Bills showed up and played a tough smashmouth game and earned a WIN 26-15
        These Wildcards games  are setting up nicely for TEASERS..with all the value bettors can get crossing over key numbers . like 3,4,6,7...if you can still get BILLS +3 the its worth 1 star ,sure.   But the HEDGIE's favorite play today is two fold :

TEASER : BILLS +8.5  and UNDER 50  2 stars

Prediction:  Bills  23 - Texans 20 

8:15 pm  Titans @ Pats 

    Some interesting stats to digest here .  The recent loss of the Pats to the Dolphins has the media and everyone wondering what this Pats team is really all about.  They could have really used a bye . But here they are and the best coach / QB tandem ever will certainly be ready.  Belechik and Brady are 6-0 ATS vs Tannehill at Gillett Stadium.    But this Titans team is hot. Tannehill has led this team to a 6-3-1 ATS record and since he took over as started he has the BEST QB RATING in the NFL at 117.6.    Tannehill needs Derek Henry to make the play action passing game work.  Henry lead the NFL in Rushing and is healthy.   Normally the Hedgie would grab the 5 points on the Titans here.  But just a few weeks ago the Hedgie grabbed 6.5 points with the Bills and they lost a hard fought battle 17-24.  There's something special about the Pats and the playoffs.  But as Belechik's staff over the years takes opportunities around the league is that magic starting to fade?   The Dolphins would NEVER beat the Pats in foxborough week 17 in the past...Coach Flores came from Belechik's staff last year and his Dolphins were ready .  Titans HC Mike Vrabel played for 8 years on the Pats under Belechik.  He also will have his team ready for this game.  Hedgie still leans to the Titans with the points ....BUT PREFERS .....

TEASER :   Bills +8.5   & Titans +11   3 stars 


Stay Tuned for an added post at 745pm...there's rain expected at Foxborough and depending on the outcome there may be an additional teaser on Titans & the Total...

Good Luck & Happy New Year !  
    - Hedgie