Hedgie Sunday

Packers +7   2 stars

The Hedgie's only Bowl Game

A month ago against UNC  Malik Rosier  (Miami's starting QB) hurt his shoulder.  It wasn't broken  so he toughed it out the rest of the season.  Just this Thursday he revealed how hurt it really was.  He could hardly pick up a ball in practice & this  clearly affected the Miami offense the past few games. 
 In determining Bowl game angles it's often about motivation and time off. Let's remember these players are 18-22 year olds .  In this instance the time off has helped Miami .  Rosier admitted he's got zip on his passes again and his accuracy is back.  He needed the 3 weeks off.  Miami in general was banged up the past month so this time off  has helped them more than others.  This also is a home game. The 'canes have an opportunity to win in the Orange Bowl in a meaningful game and erase their past two poor performances.  Wisconsin's QB Horibrook led the Big 10 with 15 INTERCEPTIONS. Miami is well known for it's TURNOVER CHAIN and should be able to exploit the Badger  QB.   

  Hedgie has noticed the line opened as Wisconsin -6.5 and the line has moved down to -4  in some spots.  This signifies some big early action on the underdog.   The Hedgie will follow this trend and get the best possible line as soon as possible.   

MIAMI +5     4 stars

Hedgie Sunday

Jets +7  2 stars

Bucs +10.5  2 stars

Jags -4  1 star

Falcons +6  2 stars

Bengals +3.5  2 stars

Hedgie Saturday

Colts +14.5  (-120)     3 stars

Packers +9    1 star

Hedgie Sunday

Eagles  -7  (-120)  3 stars       (if -7.5   make it 2 stars)

Bills  -3   3 stars

Pats  -2.5   2 stars


Browns/Ravens OVER 42  2 stars

*JETS +10 FIRST HALF

4 Stars 

After last week embarrassing admission  of ‘QUIT ’
 From the jets O coordinator last   Week  Jets will show pride early ....

Hedgie Saturday

Bears +6  1 star


Chargers pickem   3 stars

Hedgie Sunday

Seahawks +3    1 star

Chiefs -3.5  1 star

Panthers +3   3 stars

Texans/49ers  OVER 45  3 stars

Ravens +6  3 stars

Hedgie Sunday

Packers -2.5   3 stars

Lions +3  3 stars

Chargers/Browns  UNDER 44  3 stars

49ers  +3  2 stars


stay tuned for more late additions....

Saturday Hedgie

Just one play today :


TCU/Oklahoma  UNDER 65    3 stars

Sunday Hedgie - late add on

Don't love today's card....late games more intriguing...starting off the day:

Bears +14.5  (-120)   2 stars

6.5 point Teaser:  Titans +3.5  and UNDER 52.5   1 star  


stay tune for later post....broncos start Paxton Lynch  and Cards going with Blaine Gabbert....



Denver/Oakland  OVER 41   2 stars

Hedgie Saturday

Florida/ Fla State   UNDER 44.5   4 stars

Duke +12  3 stars

Temple -3.5   1 star

Hedgie Friday

Navy +4.5   1 star


The Midshipmen are on a nice Spread run   going 6-1  on the road their last 7.....Houston has not been good at home  ....  6-12-1  ATS  last 19 games....

HAPPY THANKSGIVING 🦃

Lions +2.5
    3 Stars ⭐️⭐️⭐️

Teaser : CHARGERS +5.5 & UNDER 53.5

   2 Stars ⭐️⭐️


Giants +7.5   2 stars

Hedgie Sunday

The Hedgie is full after a delicious Saturday Sandwich   but wants some Sunday Dessert....

Lions -3   3 stars

Rams +2   2 stars 

Packers +2   2 stars

Cowboys + 6.5  (-120)   -  3D  "desperate divisional dog'      (at home)   3 stars

notes & leans: 

Andy Reid has an exceptional record coming off bye weeks. The giants defense seem to have given up but Eli is still fighting and getting in sync with his offense.  at the right price a teaser chiefs -3 & 38.5 is probably worth a star

The Pats stayed in Colorado last week after their game in Denver.  This allowed them to acclimate even further to high altitude as they prepare for their game in Mexico City which is also high altitude.  pats-7  might even catch -6.5  could be worth a star   

The Hedgie is going to munch on a Gigantic Sandwich tomorrow....

The Auburn Tigers just played an emotional home game as a 2 pt  underdog vs #1 ranked Georgia last week  and layed a can of whoopass on the bulldogs winning  40-17. They racked up 488 yards of offense vs a formidable D and now get to rest vs a small foe this saturday while they have guess who on deck !!?   BAMA  in the all-important  Iron Bowl.    Two Big Games with an less important non conference game in the middle is called a SANDWICH and The Hedgie intends to pull up a chair to this one.....

Don't tell the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks that this game tomorrow doesn't matter.  Two weeks ago they beat App St 52-45 and are now fresh off a bye . Saturday  may be the superbowl for the Warhawks.   And Since Auburn is 0-3  ATS this year when laying 21 or more points the Hedgie will make this a 5 star play !  

Sept 2  Auburn -34.5  vs Georgia Southern   W  41-7  No Cover

Sept 16  Auburn  -41  vs Mercer W  24-10  No Cover

Oct 7  Auburn -21.5  vs Mississippi W  44-23  No Cover

Saturday Nov 18 

 LOUISIANA MONROE  +37  5 STARS

Temple  +14   2 stars

Cal +16  2 stars

Hedgie Sunday

Browns +10.5  3 stars

Chargers +6  2 stars

Bills +3  2 stars

Steelers/Colts UNDER 46  2 stars


stay tuned  for a possible  late pick addition 3:45pm-4pm post....

Hedgie Saturday

Today only two plays....

South Carolina -5.5   3 stars


Oklahoma  -5.5  (-120)   1 star

Hedgie Sunday

Seattle -7   (this line has moved up  . so 7.5 is one less star and 8 as well)   5 stars

  The Redskins are coming off two tough divisional games and have multiple injuries. As of friday their were 13 players listed as OUT. To make matters worse they travel across the country to play at one of the toughest venues in Seattle with a patchwork offense line.  Seattle is down a bit this year but has a solid defense and QB Wilson starting to play better.  Seahawks win by 14  and Hedgie will look to fade them next week when they travel to AZ most likely as big favorites.


Titans -3.5   3 stars   coming off a bye week titans should be fresh at home and able to establish a run game vs ravens who only rank 25ht vs run this yr.   Flacco should start post cocussion last week but he's having a down year so it's not relavant

Saints -6.5   2 stars

Broncos +7.5   (if you cant get 7.5  wait til closer to kickoff  as most money is in on eags) 1 star

Eagles without star Tackle J Peters will struggle vs the denver defense.  Simien benched for aweful play and hedgie sees Osweiler as an upgrade at that position

Bengals +7    1 star   all the money in on Jags so should be able to get +7  by kickoff. Bengals have a good defense and will load the box and force Bortles to throw which will lead to a costly turnover and allow Bengals to stay close

Hedgie Saturday

Oklahoma +2.5  3 stars

Arizona +7.5  3 stars

Florida +3  2 stars

South Carolina +24.5  2 stars

Texas +7  1 star

Hedgie Sunday - late addition COWBOYS -3

Vikings/Browns  UNDER 38.5     2 stars

Bills -2   1 star

49ers  +12.5   2 stars

Pats/Chargers UNDER 48  2 stars


late add on:

COWBOYS -3  4 stars  
     - redskins without   three starting Olineman
    (Williams, Scherff and Long all a scratch and Moses is questionable)

Hedgie Saturday - 4 plays

Nebraska +5    3 stars  - coming off a bye the Cornhuskers should take care biz  . Hedgie thinks wins outright

Tennessee  +4   3 stars  - a bowl bid and coach Jones job is on the line .  Tennessee has dominated this series and has played a tougher schedule - Vols win outright

Texas A&M  +2.5   3 stars - coming in off a bye will help the True Fresh QB be better prepared   

Florida +14.5  (-120)   2 stars  - largest outdoor cocktail party , hedgie sees Fla keeping this close...too many points as Georgia has been getting alot of hype as they should.  Ga by 7 

Is the Hedgie back on track after a 4-1 Saturday !??

Jags  -3  4 stars

Vikings -4  2 stars

Packers/Saints  OVER 47  2 stars

Falcons  +3.5  3 stars

Hedgie Saturday

Notre Dame -3.5  2 stars     Irish fresh off a bye.  USC dealing with some injuries. Tough Schedule spot for Trojans.  QB Sam Darnold as great as he can be still turns the ball over too much

Ge Tech -4    3 stars   Currently The Yellow Jackets are one of only 4 teams that are Undefeated during the spread.  They are 5-0  ATS in Vegas .  Clearly this team has been underrated so far.  This week however the money is in on Wake Forest as they are perceived to be a solid defensive team vs the option.  This line has dipped from  Ga tech -6  to Ga tech -4.  Hedgie will stay with the current vegas betting trend and side with the yellow jackets ...might even get -3.5...GA Tech  by 7-8 pts

Mich State -5.5  1 stars    another game where money has come in on the underdog.  Hedgie thinks this is a good line and the Spartans take care of biz and win by 10


Maryland/Wisconsin OVER 50.5   2 stars



TEASER :   Penn State -2.5  and UNDER 50   2 stars   (6.5 points  -120)

    Hedgie is leaning Penn State-9  and UNDER as this is the feature game of the week.  Penn State is the better team  but Michigan has a dominant defense.  It's a WHITEOUT game at Penn State with over 106,000 fans . Edge Penn St...

The HEdgie had a nice week off to study film and has A FIVE STAR play for THURSDAY NIGHT

On October 1st  during the Raiders Broncos game David Carr was sacked and fractured his vertebrae.    He came back last week and played vs the Chargers and looked tentative. Now he's playing on a short week as well.  The Hedgie has no doubt that Carr is tough.  But he doesn't look ready to play good football !     Also, the Raiders Oline has some injuries and hasn't played up to expectations.  They are on an 0-4 skid and it appears David Carr is trying to be the savior. Sometimes a wounded team on a losing streak will come out and play great.  The Giants did this last week in Denver. But this Raiders skid looks more injury based.   This is a tough spot for them . The Chiefs have owned the Raiders in this Rivalry lately.  They's won the last 5 meetings and are 4-1 ATS  in that span.  They are coming off their first loss of the season  and the Chiefs are 14-3  ATS  their last 17 road games.  Hedgie expects an effort like week 1  when they traveled to New England and took care of business.    Expect to see alot of  Kareem Hunt vs the 23rd ranked run defense.  

CHIEFS     24  Raiders 13  


CHIEFS  -3  5 stars 

Chiefs / Raiders UNDER 46.5   2 stars  (for the Raiders to have any chance they must run Lynch all night  which lends itself to the under)

The Hedgie is going to take a KNEE this weekend and protest.....

RECENT LOSING .........




BE BACK NEXT WEEK !!

Thursday NIght Hedgie

Hedgie just dippin toe in tonight  after a misfire on CAM......

Last year  Carson Wentz did not have Lane Johnson as his tackle and struggled mightily .  Lane has been ruled out for tonight and the Eags take to the road on a short week.   Hedgie likes TEASING the Panthers  with 6.5 points  to +3.5  and thinks Eagles will struggle a bit on offense without Lane as well.    

TEASER:  Panthers +3.5  and UNDER 51     1 star

Hedgie Sunday

Lions -2  4 stars
  Carolina is getting a lot of respect for beating the Pats on the road last week.  But they now have their 2nd straight road game vs a more Balanced Lions team with a much better defense.  Cam Newton had a distraction filled  week after insulting a female reporter and having his major sponsor , Dannon, drop him.   Let's not forget the Panthers #1 target (Greg Olsen)  is out for the season. 

 Packers +3  (-120)    3 stars
     Hedgie happy to grab A Rogers anywhere plus a FG.  The main reason for this play is the 10 days of rest the Packers have had since their last Thursday game to get HEALTHIER


Teaser:    Steelers -1.5  &  OVER 36.5  2 stars

Saturday Hedgie

Hedgie has 3 plays away from the major conferences today...

Tulsa +5.5   2 stars

New Mexico State +13.5   3 stars

Fresno State -17  2 stars

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Louisville is  3-0 against NC State since they been a member of the ACC.  Last year they drubbed them to the tune of  54-13 as well.   So tonight NC State gets a shot at revenge.  Louisville is without is't top WR , Jaylen Smith ,  and Hedgie likes the Thursday Night Home Dog Angle...

NC State +3.5    2 stars


NFL :   no play - leaning BUCS  +5.5  but line dropping with news that GRONK is questionable...

MNF

Believe it or not the Skins are 10-2 ATS their last 12 road games .... Andy Reid and the chiefs are not historically good in the favored role.
   All skins that were questionable are ACTIVE : swerringer ; crowder ; reed ; Kelly ... feels like skins will be up for this one ...

Redskins +7 2 stars 

Hedgie Sunday - 4 plays

Steelers -3    3 stars

Giants +3  (-120)  3 stars

Bengals -3  2 stars

Titans -2  2 stars

Hedgie Saturday

Northwestern +17 (-120). 1 star

Michigan state -3.5 1 star

Oklahoma st/ Tex tech OVER 84 1 star

Air Firce pickem 1 star

Oregon / Cal OVER 67 2 stars

Thursday night NFL

Packers Oline banged up.  Bears better than many think.
TEASER : bears +14 & UNDER 51.5
  1 star

NFL SUNDAY Just two plays

Lions/Falcons OVER 50.5   4 stars

Chiefs  -3    2 stars

Saturday Ncaa 11 plays....FEAR THE HEDGIE

Maryland -3.5  (-115)    4 stars  -  Terps look like the real deal this year and UFC hasn't played a game in over 3 weeks due to Hurricane Irma

NC State +13  3 stars  -  Fla St first game since Hurricane Irma and losing their starting QB....

Wake Forest -5   2 stars

Florida -1.5   2 stars  - Florida regaining confidence after last minute Win last week.  They are 9-1 Against the Spread  the last 10 vs Kentucky and have their number

Mich St +3.5    2 stars

Georgia/Miss St  UNDER 48   3 stars  -  two really good defenses ; MSU  allowing 9.3ppg  GA allowing 14.3  ppg

San Diego St  -3     2 stars - HC Rocky Long knows how to prepare his team for the option from his days at New Mexico .The Aztecs could run the table this year and make a solid bowl

New Mexico/Tulsa  OVER 67.5   2 stars

Auburn/Missouri  UNDER 60  1 star

North Carolina +1  1 star

VA Tech / ODU  OVER 52  1 star   -  Tech QB JAckson is hot ..hokies may score  52 themselves

Thursday - no strong opinion .. niners& under teaser? 1 star ..

Rams offense stats are over bloated ... niners have played two tough defenses ... niners & under feels right ....1 star
(Commentary sparse as Hedgie adjusts to hurricane Irma )
  Ty

Late Sunday add on .. Falcons -3 two stars

Packers oline men inactive ....

The Hedgie went 3-0-1 yesterday and is looking to build today with a 5 star ..

Tough spot for the Miami Dolphins here.   Their first game was cancelled due to Hurricane Irma. Then on top of worrying about their families and homes they've had to move out west and prepare for their first game in San Diego displaced for a full week.  You'll hear them talking about how they've been focused but the Hedgie doesn't buy it. They also are starting their season  at QB with a guy who was going to be a  Sunday Football Fox Host  in Jay Cutler.  
 The Chargers on the other hand have a game under their belt.  Early in the season it's great for teams to knock off the rust and see where they can improve.  The Chargers started slowly in Denver last week but came on strong in the 4th quarter and almost stole a W as  Phillip Rivers was  sharp.   Today, they open in their new home stadium  in Los Angeles at the StubHub center which holds 27,000.   The line has bounced between 3.5 and 5.5 but on game day you should be able to get :

CHARGERS -3.5        5 stars

Chargers   27    Dolphins 17


Chiefs  -4.5    2 stars      

Bills +7   1 star

Add ons :

Bears +7 2 stars 

Seahawks -13.5 1 star

this Saturday The Hedgie is 'TOTAL' ly focused....

Kansas St / Vandy  UNDER 49.5   3 stars

Wyoming/Oregon   OVER 59.5   3 stars

Tulsa/Toledo  OVER 69  2 stars

Baylor +14    2 stars    (QB Zach Smith back under center)

no play tonight....but hedgie feels a five star coming this weekend....stay tuned

Hedgie Week 1

Cardinals/Lions  OVER 48  3 stars

Falcons/Bears OVER 48  2 stars

Seahawks +3  2 stars

Hedgie Saturday

Michigan St  -6.5   3 stars

Iowa  -3   2 stars

The Hedgie was hoping IRMA would be a TEASER......

But she's not.......and she's a distracting bitch...

So today just a small Teaser  6.5 points :

Pats -2.5  & OVER 41.5     1 star

(typically hedgie will be looking at the chiefs as a big dog but Pats are 18-6-2 in their last 26 home games and the chiefs are starting a rookie rb  after  S. Ware got hurt.   Goodell will be in the house and the hedgie things the Pats will send a message with their high powered offense (even without edelman).

The Hedgie is opening the season with Two Plays....

   Some NFL scouts have already tabbed Wyoming QB  Josh Allen as the next Carson Wentz.   He's going to need to play like that today because Wyoming faces a tough Iowa team with a great Offensive line and two 1000 yard rushers from last season.  Wyoming gave up 42 points per games on the road last season.   The play today is  :
   Iowa/ Wyoming OVER 50.5   3 stars

Lovie Smith is in his 2nd season at Illinois and trying to revive the program.  They start the season with Chayce Crouch under center who's had only one start in his career and the team only returns 10 starters.  This team is a work in progress and is  1-5  against the spread in their last 6 home games.   On the other hand Ball State should be up to the challenge. They have won their last seven season openers and is 6-0 against the spread in it's past 6 games in September.  
    Ball State +6.5    3 stars

The HEDGIE is BACK !

Hedgie is well rested and ready for ANOTHER GREAT SEASON.....First pick will be this Saturday......stay tuned...

Final Play for the Hedgie for awhile....

The Line has gone from  UNC -2  an d 152  to  UNC -1  and 156.....

The Majority of money is in on Gonzaga  but the Hedgie's favorite angle is  Zags  getting back on defense to slow the  UNC  transition game....Hedgie sees  Big Men and ZOnes  and Gonzaga can play that game well...

Gonzaga  77   UNC  73

UNDER 156    3 stars

Final four game 1 ..UNDER 137.5. 1 star

Sunday Madness

When UNC and Kentucky met earlier in the season it was a good old fashioned shootout.  Kentucky won 103-100  in Las Vegas and The kentucky Freshman MONK scored 47 points ....

Today the total was set at 159 and has climbed to 161 for a good reason.....

Hedgie likes the OVER AGAIN       OVER 161    4 stars



Florida/South Carolina   UNDER 136.5     1 star
   two defensive minded foes who have played each other  twice already......

The Hedgie feasted with the Wilcats and Gators last night and today will keep rolling....

It took 63 games to get an OT march madness thriller and with the Gator's 82-81 win The Hedgie went to  5-0 Yesterday as a Half Point Favorite.....


Today:

Gonzaga / Xavier  UNDER 145   2 stars

Xavier +8.5  1 star

Oregon/Kansas   OVER 157    4 stars

Hedgie's coming off an 8-4-2 Star Weighted Thursday......

On December  3rd  11th ranked UCLA  went into Rupp Arena and defeated Kentucky  97-92.  Since then Kentucky has improved it's defense......John Calipari will have his young team poised to win this game.....  Kentucky  4 stars

Kentucky 86    UCLA  80




Florida  -0.5      1 star   (Gators are starting to peak at the right time .  Leaning under 131.5  as well)

SWEET 16

The Hedgie's  remains hot  and likes THE  CHALK tonight....

Michigan  -1    1 star

Kansas -5  2 stars

Gonzaga -3  2 stars

Arizona -7  3 stars

Michigan / Oregon UNDER 148.5  3 stars

West Va/ Gonzaga UNDER 150   3 stars

Sunday starter ..MICHIGAN +3.5 3 stars..

Wichita state +3.5 2 stars

Rhode Island +5 3 stars

Cincinnati +3.5 2 stars

Saturday Madness

Notre Dame  +3   1 star

Notre Dame / West Va  UNDER 149.5  1 star

Midd Tenn St +3    3 stars

Florida/UVA  UNDER 126  2 stars

Iowa St/ Purdue  OVER 152    4 stars

The Hedgie is 22-7 STAR WEIGHTED to open MARCH MADNESS....

Friday Madness:

Michigan -2.5  3 stars

Seton Hall pickem  3 stars

Seton Hall UNDER 147  2 stars

SMU -6  3 stars

SMU OVER 139  2 star

Michigan St +2.5  2 Stars

South Carolina -1   2 stars

Oregon OVER 153.5  4 stars

Dayton +7  1 star

Troy +20  3 stars

Kent State +18.5  3 stars

Rhode Island -1.5  1 star

UCLA/Kent St UNDER 162.5  1 star

Here we go ! The Hedgie has not cooled off since the Super Bowl...going 4-0 Last night !!!

Notre Dame -5.5   3 stars

UNCW +8   1 star

Iowa State/ Nevada OVER 156.5  4 stars

Minnesota +1.5  2 stars

Florida  -10   2 stars

VT +9  2 stars

ST Mary's  -4   3 stars

Gonzaga UNDER 157   3 4 stars


Hedgie always does a home run march madness busting  12 team parlay....today it's  450 units to win over  1 milly !

here it is:

Iowa st over 157.5
Nevada +6.5
North Dakota +17.5
St Mary's -5
Xavier +1.5
Vandy -2.5
Minnesota +1.5
Butler -10.5
UNWC + 8
Notre Dame -6.5
Gonxaga under 157
VCU under 128.5

The Hedgie is BACK !

After celebrating the Super Bowl victory and  Davonte Adam's 9/1  opening Touchdown The Hedgie is back to business and has been studying  College Hoops !!


The Hedgie was OVERjoyed to see some new experimental rules in place for the NIT & CBI tournaments.  The NCAA Mens committee wants to see if resttting the shot clock to  20 seconds when the offense is taking the ball out of the front court will increase the number of possessions for each team over the full course of a game, which may also.........INCREASE SCORING 

The Hedgie thinks this is an obvious goal and games will indeed increase in scoring.  This is not to mention no more  1&1  Free Throws.  2 shots will make a difference from the foul line as well. 

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-02-13/college-basketball-experimental-rules-approved-2017-nit



Having said that  The Hedgie has some SELECTIVE  NIT & CBI plays  before the real dance begins!

San Fran / Rice   OVER 155    2 stars

Ball State/ IPFW  OVER 165.5  2 stars

UNC Greenboro/ Syracuse  OVER 148 3 stars

Wyoming / E Washington OVER 162  1 star (the bettors on all over htis one and price has risen to from 156 to 162  so be careful)

SB PROPS

Luke Bryant Over 127.5 nations anthem

Davonte Freeman 9/1 first td

Tiololo 35/1 first td

Edelman over 95.5 yards

Hedgie last play of a GREAT SEASON...

It's been a great season for the Hedgie and the Hedgie has a lot to thank for the Falcon's who went 9-0 over at home in the Georgia Dome .  The line for this game has been stuck at Pats -3 and the Total is the Highest ever set at 59.  The Public is on the Pats and the books have been occasionally adjusting the juice to Pats -3  (-115) or (-120) . But Expect the line to stay at -3 by kickoff.  There's a lot of wiseguy money that likes the Falcons to keep the pot balanced.  Just yesterday at CG Technology Casino in Vegas a person put $1.1m on the Falcons at +3  to win $1m. The Public is also on the OVER 59  but that's being evened out by alot of wise guy money on the under.   
   So How does the Hedgie see the last game of the season playing out?    There are so many factors statistics and angles to take.  It's a great chess match in many ways.But The Hedgie's biggest focus is on the Pats Offense vs the Falcons D.  The Falcons are missing 2 players that to many are talking about.  Adrian Clayborn was the Falcons best interior lineman and he tore a biceps vs the Seahawks and is out.  The reason this is big is because the best way to impact and affect Tom Brady  is up the middle.  Brady is the quickest at getting the ball out of his hands and although the Falcons have great speed  in guys like Vic Beasley The Hedgie doesn't see them making an impact from the outside rush.   Big advantage Patriots especially  when they can change gears and attack up the middle with a big back like Legarrette Blount .  The Falcons also lost their best defender earlier in the season in Desmond Trufant.  The Falcons now rely on DBs  Jalen Collins,  5'10" Robert Alford and undrafted 5'9" Brian Poole.  Hedgie thinks Poole is going to be exploited hard by the Pats.
   Make no mistake The Falcons have a great offense and the Pats will have their hands full.   They boats the #1  defense  in the league in points allowed with just under 16 ppg.  This argument could be flawed in that the Pats really didn't play against potent offenses this year.  However, their strengths are not getting beat by the deep ball.  They were top 5 in the league at allowing only 16 pass plays of 30 yards or more all season.  They were also best in the league at Yards After Catch with a league low  4.1 YAC statistic.   This bodes well for the Pats bend but don't break and occasionally stopping the Falcons from a TD  but rather holding them to a FG.  
          Another tangible to consider is the returning health of  Dion Lewis.  He's had a big impact in the playoffs and with his return the Pats are utilizing no huddle more with him on the field which creates even more nightmares for opposing defenses.  
     With the Pats 2nd in the league in kickoffs and 3rd in punts there should not be many big plays in the kicking game.  Both teams also had a league low 11 giveaways.  Both teams protect the ball well. The Hedgie doesn't think there will be many turnovers which also cold lead to higher scoring affairs.
    The Falcons have been blitzing moren the playoffs but will have a hard decision to make in this game  . Brady is #1 in the NFL vs the bltiz.  He's throw  11 TDs and 0 ints vs the blitz this year.

      The Hedgie sees the Falcons coming out earlier and scoring but as the game wears on Belechick will adjust and Brady and the offense will be too much for the falcons to handle.  If the Pats get a lead you'll see a heavy dose of Blount which will also chew up alot of clock. 

UNDER 59    3 stars  - since 1967  9 Super Bowls   had totals listed in the 50s  and were predicted to be high scoring. The Under went  6-3.  

     Pats -3    2 stars

Patriots  30   Falcons  24




PROP PLAYS also coming and will be posted  LATER today....let's not forget about the Hedgie's call for 1st TD  in Super Bowl  XLII  when he posted  a bet on Gary Russell of the Steelers to score the first TD of the game  vs the Cards   at  33/1  !!!



Good luck !!
        

Hedgie

Two Hot Quarterbacks. Two so so defenses.  When these teams met earlier in the season on October 30th   the Falcons won  33-32.  The Falcs are 9-0 OVER this year. Ride the trend....   

Falcons  40   Packers  35


OVER  60  4 stars


Packers +6 1 star


Late Game  :  leaning Steelers with +6 or more    1 star

Hedgie NFL SUNDAY

Last week Jordy Nelson took a shot in the game that broke two ribs.  He's been declared inactive today.  However, most of the money keeps flowing in on the Packers and the Over. At Sportsbook.ag  79% of the money is on the over.   
   When these teams met earlier in the season the Cowboys Oline dominated and the Hedgie sees more of the same.  The Packers have won 7 straight and are here because of Aaron Rogers but the cowboys have the recipe to run the ball and keep the packers offense off the field. This will also chew up alot of the clock.   Hedgie leans cowboys and under and prefers a teaser....

TEASER:  Cowboys +1.5  & UNDER 60   (6.5 points -120)       3 stars

  The Chiefs / Steelers game time was changed due to a pending ice storm.  This has affected the line a bit too.  Money is in on the home team and has flowed in on the under  b/c of the weather conditions.    However,  if you look at this closer  there is an opportunity to go against this trend.   First of all the Chiefs are without  Linebacker Derrick Johnson and that has hurt them especially vs teams that can run the ball like the Steelers.  The Steelers are coming in hot and confident.  They already beat the Chiefs earlier this year.  Andy Reid will have his team ready and   is  19-3  coming off a bye week in his coaching career.  But the chiefs don't blow teams out.   
   Also, although there may be some icy conditions keep in mind that Arrowhead field is HEATED.  This will not be an ice bowl.  If anything the field will be wet.   So the Hedgie sees another opportunity to use a teaser to take the Steelers up over a touchdown and the total for scoring abover  37.5  with the recent dip in the line...

TEASER:  STeelers +8.5  and OVER 37.5   2 stars

NFL PLAYOFFS

It's hard to go against the heavy trends this season.  The falcons have a great offense and have gone OVER the total 13-2-1 this year and 8-0 OVER at home.   Hedgie has benefitted form this all season and its not time to over think this trend....
   Seattle has a great defense  but Kam Chancellor is not particularly good in coverage and will be exploited.  Seattle signed Devin Hester recently and they may get a boost in their return game which will help scoring. 
     The Falcons also have been bet up from  -4 to -6.....today Hedgie will continue to ride the over and play a tease with falcons over as well...

OVER 51    4 stars


Teaser:   Falcons pickem  & OVER  45   3 stars

Can you name this guy ?    Thought so.....

Earlier this season the Pats and Texans were both 2-0. The Texans came to foxboro and were embarrassed 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at QB.  Today will be more of the same.   With the vegas lines inflated towards the pats and under Hedgie prefers  teasing it....

Teaser: Pats -9.5  and UNDER  50.5  3 stars

Pats  30   Texans 13

The Hedgie is posting today by 230pm..

Wildcard Weekend - Hedgie has 3 plays on sunday

Dolphins starting QB  Tannehill will miss today's game vs the Steelers. But The Hedgie thinks Matt Moore is just fine and gives the Dolphins a chance to win.   In Coach Adam Gase's offense Moore seems to fit better.  He has  a 105.6 passer rating vs Tannehill's 93.5 and averages  8.3  yards per pass vs Tannehill's  7.7.   
     The tall task for the Dolphins here will be their banged up secondary. Byron Maxwell is doubful and Rambo is ailing.   The Hedgie expects some big plays in this game from both teams....

Steelers/Dolphins  OVER 46.5     4 stars


TEASER:  Dolphins +17.5  & Over 40.5    3 stars

The Giants defense is playing great. Hedgie sees 'Snacks' Harrison having a big game and helping to slow down Rogers and Co.   

Giants +5.5    2 stars

Hedgie WIldcard Weekend

The Lions have lost their luster by losing the last three games.  This is also coincidentally when Stafford injured his right hand.   Another key factor is the Lions are still without Theo Riddick.  Tall order to head into Seattle on a short week.    Although Seattle has been less dominant at home only going 4-3-1 this year vs the vegas spread  this sets up for a nice Teaser.   Seattle averages  28 ppg at home.      
   TEASER:  SEAHAWKS  -2.5  &  OVER 37     3 stars

This is Connor Cook. He was the Raiders 4th round selection and the 100th pick in the 2016 draft.  He will be making his first start on the road today vs the #1 ranked defense in Houston.   Expect a conservative gameplan and a tight low scoring game. Best betting angle is a home team teaser..

TEASER:  TEXANS +3  & UNDER 43.5    2 stars

Happy Hedgie New Year

The Chiefs can win the AFC WEST outright IF they beat the Chargers and the Broncos beat the Raiders.  The broncos are at home and currently favored by 1.5  over their hated rivals.

Chiefs -4   3 stars  - The chargers are a divisional rival and you can bet Phillip Rivers will want to win what might be the last home game in Dan diego.  BUT this chargers team has an NFL high  19 players that have been put on IR.  Melvin Gordon will not play today either.  The Chargers are just too depleted. Most players will be thinking about where they will be living next year rather than giving it their all to beat the chiefs.

Teaser:  Raiders +8.5  & UNDER 47.5   3 stars - Raiders will most likely employ a 6th O-lineman and pound the rock all day with Matt McGloin under center. That's the Raiders strength while stopping the run is currently the Broncos weakness . Its a good matchup for Oakland.

Falcons/ Saints OVER 57  5 stars   - Falcs are the best OVER team in the NFL going  12-2-1 this season and a perfect  7-0 at home.  Drew Brees and the Saints  have nothing to lose here. Hedgie sees a similiar result to their last matchup which produced  75 points

Teaser: Giants +14 & OVER 39   2 stars

Teaser:  Bills  +3 & OVER 36  1 star