TEASER : Saints +7 & OVER 42.5 1STAR
PANTHERS +4.5 2STAR
STEELERS +11.5 1 STAR
LIONS +4 1 STAR
PATRIOTS -2.5 (-120) 2 STARS
CARDINALS +4.5 1 STAR
SAN FRAN PICKEM 3 STARS
Sunday, October 30, 2022
Hedgie does not do Burpees on planes......
Apparently Russell Wilson was studying film and doing 'knee highs' and 'burpees' on the 8 hour flight to London. He's likely to return from injury but to the Hedgie this is NOT a huge motivator or vote of confidence to his teammates. Maybe just get some sleep with the rest of your teammates and play better ?
The Vegas line was Jaguars -4 and with the news of Wilson's return the line has fallen all the way to Jags -1.5. and even Jags-1 in some spots. London is a home field advantage for the Jags as they've played multiple games there now. The Jags traded away RB Robinson to the JETS but they plan to feature Travis Etienne more in the offense anyway. Hedgie likes the added value and of the line move and the public misperception that Wilson will all of a sudden play well.
JAGS -1 2 STARS
more picks coming by noon
Saturday, October 29, 2022
Hedgie Saturday. ( all small plays - bigger plays tomorrow in NFL)
3:30pm Nebraska +7.5 1 STAR
3:30pm Central Florida -1 1 STAR
7:00Pm Kentucky +12 1 STAR
7:30pm Michigan State +23 1 STAR
10:30pm San Diego St / Fresno St OVER 42.5 2 STARS ( Fresno QB is back. get in sooner)
add : NORTHWESTERN +11.5 2 stars
Thursday, October 27, 2022
NFL THURSDAY FOOTBALL
The Bucs are struggling and not the same team they were a year ago. Rumors of Brady and Gisele getting divorced certainly can't help. Tom may be the GOAT ...BUT you think he can just flip a switch on a short week and make his whole team better? His O line has been struggling , his WRs have had injuries and the defense who used to be #1 vs the run are now #17 .
Here come the Ravens and their stout run game. The Ravens have been struggling as well but on a short week I'll take Lamar Jackson and his ability to improvise. This line has also moved from Ravens -2 to Ravens +2 . Hedgie likes Ravens BUT wit the prime time UNDERS hitting over 60% this season Hedgie like a TEASER the MOST .
RAVENS +8 & UNDER 52.5 2 STARS
P.S Denny McCarthy is off to a nice start in The Butterfield Bermuda Championship..
Wednesday, October 26, 2022
PGA BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP
The PGA's next stop is at Port Royal Bermuda. It's a beautiful site with a fairly weak field. Bettors may not be as interested but this is where the HEDGIE gets excited to make some money . The past three winners have been :
2021 - Lucas Herbert -15
2020 - Brian Gay -15
2019 - Brendan Todd -24
This week there are some storms out in the Atlantic that will bring thunderstorms and additional wind. SO the Hedgie will look for some good ball strikers that have had success in coastal tournaments . Hedgie loves Denny McCarthy who's probably the best player in this field . But with odds at 16-1 the Hedgie will not take too much exposure as he's the chalk. HOWEVER, it's important to shop lines . Hedgie did find McCarthy at 19.5 -1 and is making a play there . Here we go:
McCarthy 16-1 ( buy at lower odds , YES) 19-1
Detry 20-1 Pass
Power 22-1 Pass
Hubbard 22-1 Pass
Hardy 25-1 Pass
Rai 25-1 Pass (found 33-1 ! place 5th in recent Italian Open has 4 wins on the DP Tour. great ball striker
Meronk 25-1 Pass
Lower 28-1 Pass
Rodgers 28-1 Pass
______________________________________________________
All these players are solid and viable BUT the Hedgie thinks there are plenty of longer shots with just as good a chance to WIN :
Will Gordon 53-1 another Korn Ferry Grad who's been hot . Gordon finished T5 in 2 tourneys this august before winning the Boise Open
Kevin Yu 90-1 - graduated Korn ferry Tour has been playing well . Finished 7th in Puerto Rico Open and has made cut in all three PGA starts this fall
Scott Piercy 100-1 - old veteran who placed 14th in 2020 here, Wont get frazzled by the conditions
Brian Gay - 210-1 another old vet who's won this tourney in the past . Gay is 50 now but clearly a horse for the course. He WON in 2020 , finished 3rd in 2019 and 3rd in 2021.
TOP 10:
Denny McCarthy +210
Russel Knox +400
DFS Lineup :
McCarthy $10,400
Knox $9,200
Shelton $9,100
Piercy $7,300
Kevin Yu $7,300
Brian Gay $6,700
GOOD LUCK !
email: Thehedgieblog@gmail.com
Sunday, October 23, 2022
NFL SUNDAY. WEEK 7
Ravens /Browns OVER 45.5 3 STARS. The Browns defense has been TERRIBLE this season. Many think D coordinator Joe Woods will be let go or replaced...AFTER the bye week. SO we get. the same ole defense this week vs an explosive Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have had their own troubles. SO far in 2022 UNDERS have been hitting 60% but not this game !
Lions +7 2 STARS. - Dak is back ! and the line reflects. However , his first start in awhile and QB Cooper Rush was playing well. Hedgie likes the Lions in their comfortable underdog role. also coming off a bye
Giants +3.5 1 STAR (make sure you get the 'hook'). This line says Barkley's shoulder is hurting. But HC Daboll has been pushing all the right buttons. Hedgie does not trust Jags
Panthers +13 2 STARS. McCaffery was traded and the line jumped. BUT the Pathers have been playing without McCaffery alot anyway. With Brady struggling this is too many points
Titans -2 2 STARS
TEASER: Washington +10 & UNDER 47.5 1 STAR. - Heineke gets he start at QB and Hedgie thinks this is an upgrade. Packers not healthy will lean ion their duo or RBs and keep the clock moving
Saturday, October 22, 2022
HEDGIE NCAA SATURDAY
3:30PM UCLA +6.5 2 STARS - Chip Kelly 0-3 thus far vs his old school Oregon. UCLA off a bye
3:30PM LIBERTY +7 (vs Byu) 2 STARS - HC Hugh Freeze calling this 'biggest game in history of Liberty'
7:00PM Air Force -2 1 STAR - AF at home and the running game seems to have found its rhythm
7:30pm Penn State -5 3 STARS - 'WHITE OUT ' Game at PSU Both QB's dinged up. If Minnesota's Tanner can not go it's a freshman QB up next
Thursday, October 20, 2022
NFL Thursday NIGHT
Hopkins is BACK from his 6 game suspension and this will no doubt help the Cardinal offense. But WR Brown was injured last week and the Cards trade for Robbie Anderson is going to take time to develop. The Primetime games have been UNDER a lot this season so the total is low. Hedgie thinks the play tonight is :
TEASER : SAINTS +8.5 and OVER 37.5 2 STARS
Wednesday, October 19, 2022
Hedgie Golf Wednesday - PGA heads to CONGAREE
The PGA Tour heads to Congaree South Carolina with a loaded field . The Course plays 7655 yards with Bermuda Greens. This Tom Fazio design features a lot of sand off the fairways and it will be playing firm and fast . Handicapping the event The Hedgie will put an emphasis on Driving Accuracy & Distance combined with the best Bermuda grass putters. Rory McIlroy is the prohibitive favorite at 6-1 but the Hedgie's betting angles are to look for a winner with mid to long shot odds. One handicapping angle will be weather or not the Players returning from the ZOZO in Japan will be tired and affected with the new time zone.
So here we go :
Jordan Spieth 28-1 coming off a dominant 5-0-0 record at the Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow Hedgie thinks his success will carry forward much like Tom Kim's
Viktor Hovland 29-1 Hovland has really been playing well recently and has posted a couple TOP 5s in his past three starts
Sepp Straka 90-1 after a string of missed cuts he seems to have found something. last 5 starts 45th ; 2nd ; 27th ; 2nd ; 7th
Sepp TOP 20: +230 ( 2.3 to 1)
Rickie Fowler 90-1 Rickie is back ! He switched coaches to Butch Harmon and is finding immediate success with a steeper more reliable swing . Finished 2nd in ZOZO and has confidence back
Rickie TOP 20 : +175
Russell Henley 110-1 great price for a former Georgia bulldog who putts well on Bermuda. He finished 3rd in the 2020 CJ Cup at Shadow Creek ( another Fazio design)
For all you DRAFTKINGS Tournament DFS Players ,two Hedgie Lineups this week :
Scheffler $10,400 McIlroy $11,100
Fitzpatrick $9,800 Hovland $9,200
Wise $7,800 Speith $8,800
Fowler $7,400 Straka $7,400
Putnam $7,400 Mitchell $7,200
Stallings $7,200 L. Hodges $6,300
Feel Free to write questions or comments : Thehedgieblog@gmail.com
Sunday, October 16, 2022
NFL WEEK 6
Dolphins +3.5 1 STAR - Vikings 1-4 ATS and traveling to the heat of South Florida. Don't trust Kirk Cousins on the road here. Make sure get the 'hook' +3.5
Falcons +4.5 2 STARS - San Fran in a brutal scheduling spot having their 2nd east coast road game. The Niners have a slew of injuries and the Falcons are the only 5-0 team ATS this year.
Panthers +10.5 4 STARS - Panthers fired head coach Rhule and QB Baker Mayfield is out with injury. Baker was playing very poorly so QB PJ WALKER is an UPGRADE here. The Rams O-LINE is still a mess. Last week Cowboys only required 10 passes and 76 yards to beat the Rams last week. Panthers have the formula to keep this game close.
Bills -2.5 3 STARS
Bills/Chiefs OVER 54 2 STARS
Saturday, October 15, 2022
Wednesday, October 12, 2022
Hedgie and the ZOZO Championship. (PGA )
TO WIN :
Tyrell Hatton 28-1
Mito Pereira 33-1
Sepp Straka 48-1
TOP 20 :
Straka +130
Mito +145
Cam Davis +145
Lucas Herbert +150
Matt Wallace +230
HEDGIE DFS DRAFTKING LINEUP:
Sunjae Im $10,000
MITO. $8300
Stallings $8200
Sepp Straka $7900
Munoz $8100
Kitayama $7500
Sunday, October 9, 2022
NFL WEEK 5 - EARLY LONDON GAME. - late additional Teaser. Vikings -2.5. & Browns +7.5
Over the past 15 seasons teams favored by at least 7 points in international games are 7-0 ATS ( 6-0 London) Reports are that Daniel Jones will play but he's not 100%. This sets up nicely to use the Packers in TEASERS.
NFC NORTH SPECIAL: Packers -1.5 & Vikings -1.5 3 stars
Packers -1.5 & Titans +6 1 Star (no idea why money is coming in on Commanders and driving spread to a pickem
TEASER : VIKINGS -2.5 & BROWNS +7.5. 1 star
Dolphins -3 2 STARS (make sure get -3 and not 3.5). Teddy Bridgewater ( also known as "teddy Covers') is a very capable backup and veteran who will step in and run the same offense.
Cowboys +5.5 1 STAR - Keep an eye on Polland and Lamb. They both made the trip and are expected to play. Dallas is 9-1 ATS it's past 10 road games and their D line matches up well against shaky Rams OLINE. Lean under as well
Bengals +3.5 1 star (make sure get the 'hook' at 3.5 )
DRAFTKINGS DFS LINEUP
QB J Allen $8200
RB Robinson $6300
RB Stevenson $5500
WR Diggs $8400
WR Kirk $6600
WR K Philips $3900
TE Freiermuth $4100
FLEX Higbee $4300
DST Cowboys $2500
Feel free to email thehedgieblog@gmail.com with comments and/or suggestions
Good Luck Today !
Saturday, October 8, 2022
Thursday, October 6, 2022
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL
The Russell Wilson lead Broncos are 2-2 and have not looked very good. The host the Colts on a short week and the Colts have looked worse. Both teams are dealing with injuries to star players and Colts lost star RB Taylor to a ankle injury while Broncos lost starting RB J Williams along with DE Gregory for this game. New HC Hackett is still getting used to being a HC and Hedgie doesn't quite trust him having his team ready to dominate on a short week .
While the Colts have looked bad they rose up and defeated the Chiefs at home as an underdog and Hedgie thinks they will give a good fight tonight. Colts RB Hines should have a big game running and receiving.
Thus far the UNDERS on Primetime have been 9-4. Hedgie leans under 42 but is more enticed by a TEASER :
COLTS +9.5 and UNDER 48 - 1 STAR
Wednesday, October 5, 2022
Hedgie Wednesday GOLF THOUGHTS
This week the PGA Tour heads to Vegas. It's early in the new season and the Hedgie likes to follow and focus on some of the young upcoming stars who have had recent success on the Korn Ferry or perhaps the PGA players who finished last yr on a high note but haven't tasted victory in awhile or even at all...
Unlike in the NFL or NCAA GOLF is much different when wagering...picking a WINNER is extremely hard and Hedgie does NOT like to chase the chalk. There are too many good players on tour in every field so paying up for a guy like Patrick Cantlay &-1 odds just isn't Hedgie's style.
Also, picking Winners is not like a 1-5 STAR rated system . 1 STAR is a real wager in Hedgie's book so picking winner's is often based on fractions of a star ....so for the Shriner's HERE WE GO:
TO WIN :
Cam Davis 47-1 .25 Star
Thomas Detry 75-1 .25 Star
FINSIH in TOP 10 :
Cam Davis +475 ( that's 4.75-1) .25 Star
Denny McCarthy +500 .25 Star
Kurt Kitayama +700 .25 Star
Rickie Fowler +650 .25 Star
FINISH TOP 20:
Denny McCarthy +230 .20 Star
Cam Davis +220 .20 Star
Thomas Detry +230 .20 Star
Rickie Fowler +260 .20 Star
Taylor Montgomery +150 .20 Star
All in for the Shriners 2.5 Stars Total in Play
For you DFS Draftkings Tourney Players here are Two Hedgie Lineups :
Cantlay $11,100 Cantlay $11,100
D McCarthy $8,400 Cam Davis $9,200
R . Fowler $7,800 R. Fowler $7,800
K. Lee $7,700 Kitayama $7,500
S Power $7,600 M Hubbard $7,400
A Putnam $7,300 L Hodges $7,000
Note that DFS is VERY different than outright gambling as you have to fit 6 golfers under a $50,000 salary cap . There are also many different type of tournaments . The Hedgie usually plays tournaments that are single entry ( one 1 lineup per tourney) or low amounts of entrees. And Also generally between 200-2000 total entrees. It's important to find your own style and preferences.
FOOTBALL thoughts coming tomorrow.....
Sunday, October 2, 2022
NFL WEEK 4. - The Hedgie has a 5 star !
The Commanders lost to the Eagles lasy week and QB Wentz was sacked 9 times ! The 24-8 loss was more lopsided than the score. Now the Commanders travel to Dallas and are only. 3 point underdogs vs a Dallas team that leads the NFL in SACKS with 13 !!
QB Cooper Rush has a clear handle on the offense and is playing efficiently . WR Gallop and TE Shultz may both return for the offense here as well.
The rumor on VIS radio this morning was that there's alot fo offshore money betting on the Commanders keeping this line at -3. But to the Hedgie this line makes no sense . It Should be Dallas -7 .
COWBOYS -3 5 STARS
Teaser : Cowboys +3 and Eagles -0.5 2 stars
Steelers -3 3 stars
Ravens +3.5 1 star ( Tough spot for Bills who played 90 snaps in the Florida heat last week and now must travel again with a banged up roster)
Houston +6.5 1 star
Chargers extremely banged up with Bosa out on IR and Star Left Tackle SLATER out as well. Keenan Allen wont play and WR Guyton was lost for season last week also. Tough spot on road to lay this much .
Saturday, October 1, 2022
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