Sunday, November 27, 2022

WEEK 12 NFL

 



Last Season the Titans lost to the Bengals 19-16 in a BRUTAL home loss . Tannehill threw a terrible INT to cost the Titans the game.  Today is chance for payback.  The Bengals will be without WR Chase and RB Mixon.   The line has dropped from Bengals -2.5 to Bengals -1.  The money is flowing in on the right side.


TITANS +1   3 STARS


Washington -3.5 1 STAR

Washington/Falcons OVER 40.5 1 STAR

Jags +4 1 STAR  (home dog rested ) 

TEASER : BUCS +3 & UNDER 48 1 STAR  ( high winds today ) 



Small Card today.  Be disciplined 


thehedgieblog@gmail.com


Saturday, November 26, 2022

Will Hedgie Stay HOT !? Coming off a 7-2 Star Weighted Turkey Day !

Indiana +11 1 STAR

Buffalo -4 1 STAR

James Madison -13.5 1 STAR

LSU -9.5 1 STAR

Vanderbilt +14.5 1 STAR

Texas Tech +2.5 (-115) 2 STARS

Hawaii /San Jose St. OVER 58 2 STARS

USC -4 3 STARS 




Thursday, November 24, 2022

THANKSGIVING FOOTBALL !

 


These days there's not a lot of home field advantage in the NFL.  Thanksgiving Day in Detroit is a day there IS home field advantage.  The Bills played in Detroit last week due to the Stow Storm in Buffalo. Their travel plans have been a disaster.  Not sure how they flew back Sunday , practiced and put together a gameplan in such short notice.  The Bills are more talented and should prevail in the end. But Hedgie still wonders about Josh Allen's ARM health.  Last week was a run heavy gameplan - to preserve that right arm ??    The Lions have won 2 straight and will be fighting hard under HC Dan Campbell.   

   The Bills got off to a slow start last week and were down 3-7 after 1s Q vs  the Browns.  Hedgie sees a similiar game script.  


 LIONS +3 1st Quarter   2 STARS

LIONS +10   3 STARS

Giants +10 PASS -TOO BANGED UP 

Vikings -2.5  1 STAR (only if -2.5)  - Don't overreact , Vikings will bounce back

TEASER :  Vikings +3.5 & UNDER 48.5  2 STARS

3 TEAM TURKEY TEASER ( 10 points )

   1) Bills Lions  OVER 44.5 ( down from 54.5) 

    2) Dallas  PICKEM ( down to zero from -10) 

    3) Vikings +8.5 ( up from -2.5)




    

Sunday, November 20, 2022

NFL WEEK 11. - Hedgie coming off a 5-1 Star Weighted Saturday !


Due to a Heavy Snowstorm that hit Orchard Park with up tp 77 inches of Snow the game was moved to Detroit.  The Bills held zoom practices and were able to fly out to Detroit Saturday afternoon. Most sportsbooks cancelled the original bets where the line opened. Buffalo -8 and 48. The line reopened at Bills -7.5 and 49.5 . The total adjusted higher due to Ford Field being indoors.  

1PM  Browns / Bills PASS.  too many variables and Bills had some players with the Flu this week

1PM     Panthers +13.5 1 STAR     Baker gets the Start . Lamar Jackson had the flu friday. 

1PM     Washington -3 ( -115)    1 STAR   Heineke gets start.   Commanders have            momentum)

1PM      Giants -3 (-115)  1 STAR    (Huge Coaching advantage ) 

1PM     Jets +3.5  3 STARS.  ( Matt Patricia as O coordinator. QB Mac Jones REALLY    struggling)

1PM    Jets +9.5 and UNDER 44 1 STAR

1PM      Falcons -2.5  2 STARS      Money been flowing on the Bears all week   QB Fields has been playing  well.  Bears RB Herbert was placed  on IR and the Falcons  have had 10  days to prepare.


4:05PM     Raiders +3 1 STAR  (only if +3) 

4:25PM      TEASER : VIKINGS +8 & OVER 42.5  1 STAR








Saturday, November 19, 2022

College Football Saturday Week 12


                                (Uconn defeated Liberty to become bowl eligible last week )


 12:00 PM     Connecticut +11 1 star  - Huskies are now bowl eligible at 6-5 and                                                                             are 9-2 ATS under HC  Jim Mora


7:30pm        Arkansas +2.5 1 Star


12:00PM     Illinois +18  1 star. - cold and windy. 2 string defenses. too many point                                     to lay for michigan  who has a  game on deck with Ohio State


11:00PM     Hawaii +11  3 STARS         Rainbows been playing well lately and are                                                                             5-1 ATS past 6 games

Thursday, November 17, 2022

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

 



The Titans have a few starters out on this short week . But the Hedgie  thinks HC Mike Vrable  is a better coach and will have his team ready as a home underdog tonight.  QB  Tannehill is back under center and the Packers best defensive player Rashon Gary  is out for the season from a torn ACL 2 weeks ago.  

   Expect a low scoring game as both teams want to establish the run.   Money has been in on the Packers at -3  so wait and take...


TITANS +3.5 (-115)  1 STAR 

TEASER :  Titans +9 & UNDER 47  1 STAR 

RSM CLASSIC - Late Entry but if paying attention before tee off...(Finau withdrew)

 Keith Mitchell   30-1 

Webb Simpson 60-1

Scott Stallings  83-1

Nick Hardy 90-1

Ben Griffin  98-1



TOP 20 :

Keith Mitchell +190

Nick Hardy  +260



sorry for the late post 

Sunday, November 13, 2022

NFL WEEK 10 ...Hedgie coming off a 10-3 Star weighted saturday !


 



Seahawks +3 (-115)    3 STARS.   you should be able to get +3 by kickoff.  This game is in GERMANY and listed as a Bucs home game which it obviously is not.  Bucs should have beat the Rams handily last week and did not because they are just not that good.  Bucs 23rd ranked run defense will have their hands full with Seahawks RB Walker III

Steelers  Pickem   -   3 STARS - TJ Watt is back. Steelers off a bye and get a banged up Saints team 

Vikings +7 -  4 STARS  this line opened Bills -8 then when QB Allen was thought to be out dropped to -3.5. Allen was announced ACTIVE today but HEDGIE DOES NOT BUY IT.  The Bills have been playing coy all week and it just does not make sense to have Josh Allen out there risking further injury to his elbow.  It requires rest and the Bills have their sites set on a SB.  QB Keenum is servicable and Hedgie thinks will get most if not all of the snaps today.  but this line should be more like Bills -3.  

Bears -2.5 - 3 STARS -  Lions first game on grass . QB Goff notorious for playing poorly in cold weather. Bears and QB Fields have been surging the past 3 weeks.  


TEASER :  Seahawks +8.5 & 49ers -1.5. 2 STARS


Saturday, November 12, 2022

NCAA FOOTBALL SATURDAY WEEK 11



Jimbo Fisher signed the largest guaranteed contract in College Football history last year.   The Team is on a 5 game losing streak has injuries and travels to Auburn tonight as a 1 point favorite.  Auburn is also on a 5 game losing streak but already fired their coach and the players seemingly will want to play hard and get a win for their newly promoted coach, Cadillac Williams.   


Fisher's buyout if he is fired at the conclusion of each season: 

  • 2022: $85,950,000
  • 2023: $76,800,000
  • 2024: $67,550,000
  • 2025: $58,200,000
  • 2026: $48,750,000
  • 2027: $39,200,000
  • 2028: $29,550,000
  • 2029: $19,800,000
  • 2030: $9,950,000


12:00PM - West Virginia +8.5 1 STAR

4:00 PM - South Carolina +8.5 1 STAR

12:00PM - Arkansas +4 1 STAR

7:30PM - Auburn -1  2 STARS

12:00PM - Illinois -6 (-115)  2 STARS

7:30PM - TCU +7.5 (-120)  3 STARS

3:30PM - Mississippi  +11.5 3 STARS


Wednesday, November 9, 2022

HEDGIE PGA TOUR STOP - HOUSTON MEMORIAL PARK

 


So far this Fall the PGA tour has seen a lot of Chalk in the winner's circle :


11/6      Mayakoba                       Russell Henley         50-1  (19th highest) 

10/30   Butterfield Bermuda        Seamus Power        18-1   (3rd highest) 

10/23    CJ Cup                            Rory McIlroy            6-1  (FAVORITE) 

10/16    ZOZO                             Keegan Bradley        37-1  (16th highest) 

10/9        Shriners                        Tom Kim                 22-1   (5th Highest) 


Usually by now we have a couple  longer shots that hit the board but as the Fall swing comes to an end we now head to Houston where Memorial Park will play very tough.  These current players tend to play in tougher conditions better  and/or hit the long ball which  will be an advantage here.  Pendrith was super hot this past summer and named to the International presidents Cup team. Mitchell  and Steele are  great Drivers of the golf ball.  Dahmen has been HOT lately. Straka is mispriced , has been HOT as well  and won on a similiarly difficult course last year at the Honda ( also has bermuda greens) .  Wise has been rounding into form and tough courses tend to fit his style of play.  Shriners  64th ;  CJ Cup 6th ; Mayakoba 15th .  Coming off  a 64 last Sunday Hedgie  is  Bullish on WISE this week ....


Hedgie  WINNERS :            TOP 5                TOP 10                TOP 20

Aaron Wise  18-1               Wise +425           Wise +225            Wise EVEN

Joel Dahmen  50-1                                          Joel  +400             Joel +175

Taylor Pendrith 50-1

Keith Mitchell     65-1

Sepp Straka         80-1

B Steele             100-1

S Scheffler    (6-1  PASS)                            Scotty  EVEN 


Depending on where you shop for lines you can get some nice mispriced longshots 

Adam Long  120-1  small  ( most shops have him in the 80-1100 range) 

Fancisco Molinari   185-1 ! small  (most shops have him 100-125 range) 


DFS Lineups coming soon...Best of Luck !


Monday, November 7, 2022

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

 TEASER :  SAINTS +8 and UNDER 52  1 STAR 


small play , lot's of injuries    home team monday night getting more than a TD with a lot of running and clock churning  is the play ...

  Prediction: Ravens 24-Saints 23



fun player prop: Justice Hill    OVER 25.5  RUSHING Yards  (-120)

Sunday, November 6, 2022

NFL WEEK 9


                         Bucs DT Nicks is back and will help tremendously vs a terrible Rams OLine


Falcons +3 1 STAR

Vikings -3  2 STARS

Panthers +7.5 (-115)  2 STARS

Raiders -2  1 STAR

Seahawks +2 1 STAR

Bucs -2.5 (-120)  3 STARS

Saturday, November 5, 2022

NCAA WEEK 10 FOOTBALL


Tennessee QB Hooker has been playing great with 21 TDs and only 1 INT   If he protects the ball Tennessee covers and maybe Wins





 Army / Air Force UNDER 41        1 STAR


Kansas State +3  1 STAR (only if 3)


Purdue/ Iowa UNDER 40 1 STAR (heavy winds)


Texas A&M -2 (-115) 2 STARS


James Madison +7 2 STARS ( terrible schedule spot for Louisville)


Tennessee +10 (-120) 2 STARS


LSU +14 (-115)  2 STARS



EMAIL Comments :    thehedgieblog@gmail.com

Thursday, November 3, 2022

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL


 Brandin Cooks wanted to be traded and some teams were interested ( Cowboys & Rams) .  But the Texans couldn't come to terms by Tuesday's deadline and now Cooks has decided to sit out.  He posted a cryptic tweet and is clearly not happy with his team.  To make matters worse the Texans 2nd best WR Nico Collins is out with an injury also.  Where will the points come from? ?

    Philly is on a roll and runs the ball well. The Texans Defense is also bad and the Titans just ran ALL OVER them last week.  Hedgie never likes laying double digits in the NFL  but there is only one way to go here.   Eagles were -13. now. -13.5 and mostly -14.    Not sure why the Total has not crept down from 46 either.    So...

UNDER 46 1 STAR

and...

TEASER :  EAGLES -7.5. and UNDER 52 1 STAR

     

Wednesday, November 2, 2022

HEDGIE PGA - MAYAKOBA

 



                                                El Camaleon Mayakoba Golf Club 


WINNERS :                                    

GRILLO 40-1

TODD 40-1

KUCHAR 55-1

DAHMEN 66-1

KEVIN YU 108-1


TOP 20:

WISE  +105

GRILLO +175

POWER +190

KUCHAR +190

TODD +220

JJ SPAUN +250

DAHMEN +250

K YU +425


DFS LINEUPS:

    #1                            #2                    #3

Scheffler                Hovland              Finau

Power                    Wise                     Hoge

Kuchar                   Spaun                   Grillo

JJ Spaun                Dahmen                Spaun

Kevin YU                Svensson                Dahmen

CT Pan                    Kevin YU            R. Armour