NFL Sunday Week 4

Panthers -6.5  vs Falcs      3 stars

Saints  -4  vs Niners       2 stars

Skins +10.5  at Cowboys   1 star

NCAA Saturday

Wisconsin  - 5.5     over Michigan        

             2 stars - mich offense still not working

UAB +26.5  at South Carolina            

            2 stars  - usc  goes with new qb and 3 starters benched

Washington -3 vs Stanford                    

           1 star  - willingham gets the home win after a bye

NCAA Friday NIght

UCONN/LOUISVILLE OVER 51 1/2 1 star

more picks will be released for saturday later tonight. good luck

NFL SUNDAY - WEEK 3

hedgie traveling so will not post commentary. more important to get the picks up. good luck !

Chiefs +6        1 star

Vikings -3     2 stars

Packers/Cowboys  UNDER 51 1/2   2 stars

College Football

Texas A&M  +2 1/2   vs  Miami      1 star

Va Tech + 3 1/2   at UNC             2 stars

no time for analysis , sorry   (want to get the picks up)

MNF

Every Monday The Hedgie gets emails  'Who do you like tonight!?  

The Monday nighter is always a tough chaser night.  It takes discipline to back off and save those chips for a better night. Thats what the hedgie is doing tonight.  

GUN TO HEAD  if you can catch the eagles +7 that's prob the right side based on Andy Reid and his road spread record.......   

Tonight is just a scouting mission for the next opportunity.....

    good luck to all

NFL

Circle the wagons for a 4 STAR PLAY The Bills looked impressive last week on offense , defense , and special teams. Trent Edwards had a passer rating of 96 and they also get back pro bowl holdout OT Jason Peters this week.

The Jags on the other hand are a MESS ! One of their backup tackles , Collier, was critically wounded when shot several times which has to affect the psyche of a team. And when they traveled to Tennessee last week they lost 2 more starting O Linemen. Garrard was sacked 7 times last week (the most in week 1 ) and had a passer rating of 68.

The public perception of the Jags is that they are a superbowl contender and could possibly upend the Colts in the AFC South. That's the reason for this wrong line. Things change quickly in the NFL wand the Hedgie wil capiltalize on the wrong line....

Oh by the way, there is ONE MORE REASON THE BILLS WILL WIN....
MARCUS STROUD - this guy is a beast ! The former 3 time pro bowler with Jacksonville was traded to the Bills this past offseason and he wasn't particularly happy about it. When asked Stroud says "it's just another game" But when teammate safety Donte Whitner was asked of his teammates return to Jacksonville he replied " When they look at the film, they're going to be, Why did we let this guy go? "
Stroud is going to decimate an already banged up Jags Oline. Hedgie gives the Bills a good chance to win outright. Take BILLS +5 1/2
4 STARS



ANOTHER PLAY: Tennessee Titans +1 at Cincinnati - how bad are the Bengals? Carson Palmer racked up under 100 yards last week and the Bengals looked lifeless. The TItans are a good physical road team and are a better team with Collins under center. 1 Star

TEASER: 2 team 6 1/2 point peaser - 2 STARS
Saints + 7 1/2 - Campbell still adjusting to Zorn's new offense and Saints are back
Patriots + 7 1/2 - Cassell will be fine and the pats are a veteran team. Plus Favre still
learning and limited in new offense. this line is an overreaction to Brady

Hurricane Ike & Calloege Football

Ike will affect many games this weekend. One game the Hedgie likes is Baylor playing their 3rd game in a row at home vs Washington St. Originally this game was Washington St -2. All the early betting has come in on Baylor. Washington State is pathtic. They lost to Cal 66-3 while Baylor is gaining some confidence. Thie game was switched to Friday night which shoudl help Baylor as well since they won't be traveling. Baylor - 2 1/2 2 stars (grab sooner than later as this line is moving)

Another game the Hedgie likes is Ohio State + 11 This is more of a value play. This line originally opened at -5 . Then when USC crsuhed a bad UVA team 52-7 the line jumped to -7. Then the injury news with Beannie Wells the line has moved even more. By the way Wells has not been totally ruled out and could still be a gametime decision. Gamesmanship by Tressel ?Hedgie sees this as an overreaction and good value. Take the +11 2 stars

last minute monday night play

Packers/Vikings OVER 37   1 star

   this line has been coming down from 40 for no real reason other than public perception of the vikings great defense.  the packers should be able to air it out and the vikes have plenty of weapons. this game should be in the low 40's.....

NFL Week 1

Opening week appears to be a tough card:

Bengals -1 ---> 1 star.     ravens going with a division 1 -aa starting qb flacco

Bills -1      ---> 1 star     seahawaks very banged up and bills made some nice additions on Defense

Teaser --->  Lions +3 1/2  & Saints + 3 1/2     1 star   (6 1/2 point 2 team teaser)

            Falcons starting rookie Qb Ryan  

            Very Big Game for Saints after last year opened 0-4   added some key ingredients 

                  in offseason which should help them get back to top of NFC south

This week has been tough to analyze with all the uncertainty.   some handicapping thoughts that came into play:

   -   how are jags dealing with Collier's shooting 

   -  everyone n the mother is betting dallas . line has jumped from -4.5 to -6 which is a big

        move in the nfl. derek anderson coming off concussion. jamal lewis might not start. but              dallas also loses newman (cb) in the secondary . leaning to over 48 1/2

    

  all in all there is just too much uncertainty to make any big plays this week.  there will be many more opportunities in the near future.......   good luck!

Hedgie Saturday College football

The Hedgie is traveling out west and will only make one play on a west coast game. 

Stanford +14.5  at Arizona State      1 star

   Stanford got blasted last season 41-3 and returns a solid team with confidence coming off last week's victory while Az State has lost some good players from last season. This game will be closer than the books think

Hedgie Releases first pick of the season...

Tonight the NFL opens with Giants hosting the Skins at 7pm. The eskins looked horrendous in the preseason as they adjusted to their new head coach and new system. the last 2 games they were outscored 71-6. The Giants struggled themselves with the loss of 5 defensive starters from their superbowl unit. Vegas opened the Gmen as 3.5 point favorites which thehedgie thought was low. The line has since been bet up to -4.5 which looks like the right side.....

But the hedgie will be patient tonight and instead maybe another play it likes more.....

The GAMECOCKS of South Carolina seek revenge at Vanderbilt tonight. Vandy dealt them a sneaky blow last season whcih styarted a 5 game skid foir them. the Cocks return 7 starters on offense and 10 on defense and look poised to be one of spurrier's better teams. Even after a pathetically slow start last week vs NC State the cocks shook off 4 ints from QB Beecher to cruise to a 34-0 victory.

This week the Ole Ball Coach starts the right QB in Chris Smelly and the Cocks roll early and get revenge

South Carolina - 10 2 stars

Football is back and The Hedgie is ready with a new look ! With GOLD at $806 an ounce it may be time to consider fillings like Marshaw Lynch

In the past followers have been occassionally frustrated when the site would not get picks up in a timely manner for kickoffs....the hedgie is constantly scouting teams and games. this means that posting picks to the site while traveling was always hard. well, that is now fixed ! posts will occur regularly now. for example, if the hedgie is traveling to new orleans and has turbulence due to hurricane gustav and passes by the saints plane en route to indianapolis you may see a posted pick or just random thought now when the hedgie's plane lands. this will be realtime so that you can capitalize on the lines before they move.
this year the hedgie will focus on 1-3 college games and 3 nfl games each week.
It's going to be a golden year!