THUNDEROUS DOMES

There is no doubt the home dome crowd will play a role in today's game. Hedgie was shocked the 'mature' Chargers choked so much. Snaps over the head of Rivers and missed FG's by Keating are about as bad as it gets. You have to give the J-E-T-S a lot of credit however. They have a proven method of winning and a certain swagger. Today that will end because of a few variables that are too tough to overcome. Playing in a loud raucous crowd will be very difficult for a rookie QB and Oline. The Jets will have to stick to the run game which they are very good at. This time they face a Colts team that is MUCH BETTER at TACKLING than their past two foes. Expect LB Brackett to have a big day tackling and perhaps pick Sanchez. On the Offensive side Peyton Manning is 4-0 against Rex Ryan defenses when Rex was the coordinator in Baltimore. He's better at any QB in the game at adjusting and taking what the defense gives. Expect a HUGE day from Dallas Clark in the middle of the field. He's currenlty 5-1 at sportsbooks to score the first TD. The line has been creeping back higher with news that Colt's DB powers will not start but backup Lacey has started 9 games this yr and will do just fine vs Sanchez. This game looks to be a low scoring slugfest chess match. The Colts have not blown out teams this year so laying 8+ might be a bit of a reach. Hedgie sides with UNDER 40 in the game. Colts 24 - Jets 13 2 stars

This is Hedgie's favorite game of the Day. The storylines are incredible with Brett Farve & Drew Brees and the paths they both took to get here. Once again the home dome crowd will be an x-factor. New Orleans hasn't been to a superbowl in 43 years. This team led by Drew Brees is the soul of the town. Drees Brees is quotes as saying that when he took the job of QB after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 : "This was my calling" . Dan Pasquerelli ,espn sportswriter, says he takes multiple advils when he covers the games because the noise literally gives him pouding headaches. The Viking are a great home team and thrive on their own Dome crowd but have proven to be vulnerable on the road with only going 1-4 ATS on the road. Another key factor is HEALTH. The vikes come in a tad banged up. DT's Ray Edwards and Kevin Williams are not 100% and going up against an underrated Saints OLine. Also, Percy Harvin is expected to play but don't expect him 100% either. Wouldn't be surprised if the Dome noise alone gives him migraines! The best athlete on the field today is a healthy REGGIE BUSH. He's clearly back to full strength after last weeks performance vs Cards. With a vikes shaky secondary , Drew Brees on a mission and Reggie Bush at full strength Hedgie can't see Saints losing this one. Money is coming in on the vikes so might be able to catch -3 on this game. Either way SAINTS -3.5 3 stars

hedgie post by noon sunday..

colts/jets...money coming in on colts and creeping back to the over with colts DB Powers downgraded to doubtful

vikes/saints .. most money on vikes +3.5 and over 53....hedgie watching percy harvin status very closely

sunday playoffs

Cowboys +3 2 stars

defense is playing great. the vikes Oline really struggled the last 4 weeks of the season. 3 points is great value here

* UPDATE* also, vikes/boys UNDER 45.5 2 stars ed werder reporting from the field that after talking to brett farve that their will be an emphasis on the running game to keep dallas defense at bay. a little game plan revealed which should keep the clock ticking

Chargers -7 2 stars

this is a different chargers team than in years past. they have all been together and are a mature team. they will be well prepared and rivers has been playing at a high level. revis is a great cb but he can't cover jackson, floyd and gates all at once. gates poses a huge problem for the jets. if the jets get down they simply can't rely on a rookie qb to bring them back. money has been coming in on the jets so might be able to catch -6.5 at kickoff

NFL PLAYOFFS

The hedgie needed to clear his head from the past couple weeks and go to a remote island to get back on track. This formula has worked in the past and hedgie expects it work again.

It is impossible however to not feel the nearby pain and suffering in the neighboring country of Haiti. There are many heavy hearts today and aproximately 24 NFL players have ties to Haiti including Colts WR Pierre Garcon, Saints RB Pierre Thomas, Saints LB Johnathan Vilma, Chargers CB Antonio Cromartie, and Cardinals CB Dominique Rogers-Cromartie who will all be playing this weekend. The best way to contribute to the cause by simply text messegng "HAITI' to 90999. A $10 donating will go the Red Cross and a charge will appear on your cell phone bill. Another reputable organization to donate to is Wyclef Jean's Yele.org.

On to pigskin - the hedgie sees alot of inflated TOTALS based on last weeks scores.

In the Saints/Cards game 57.5 is the highest posted Total in the last 20 years for a playoff game. Yes, both offenses are prolific but the hedgie expects to see some defensive adjustments with some bend-don't-break schemes. Pierre Thomas is back for the Saints and he provides the Saints offense with a tougher run oriented mindset which will help chew some clock. Looking back all season if you used 57 as the Total the Cards would have been 2 Over and 15 Under while the Saints 6 Over and 10 Under. The cards defensive unit called a players only defense meeting to focus on better 'Tackling' and fundamentals. With better tackling comes more clock time. Hedgie sees this game with the Saints getting a lead and pounding Thomas to wear down a tired Cards defense in the 4th quarter....

UNDER 57.5 4 stars

The Hedgie loves RAY RAY. Last week he was so prepared he was stealing Tom Bradys play calls and the defense knew exactly where the ball was going. If not for the imposters on the Patriots defense last weeks game would have stayed Under the posted 43.5 As soon as that game was over Ray Ray was studying the Colts on the plane ride home. The Colts and Ravens know each other very well. For the Ravens to win they will need to rely on their run game and Peyton will be forced to dink and dunk in the passing game to earn his points.

UNDER 44 2 stars

wildcard sunday

pats/ravens UNDER 43.5 3 stars

cards/packers...PASS

NFL WIldcard

Bengals/Jets OVER 33.5 3 stars
Throw last week's game out. Once the Bengals got down they stuck with a vanilla gameplan knowing that they would face the Jets this week. This line is simply too low based partly on last week's score. The Jets will be aggressive and trying to force turnovers and although it's cold in Cinci the winds are light. This game should fall in the 37-41 range


Dallas/Philly UNDER 45.5 1 star
Dallas defense has been playing well lately while the O-line has been opening holes for the run game. Expect a big dose of marion barber and the dallas 3 headed backfield. Also, Eags are UNDER 9 of their last 12 postseason games under Andy Reid.

one ball , one strike , 1 million dollars...

Both Defenses ranked #2 and #3 in yardage and #1 and #8 in points. Neither team turns the ball over much and in a National Championship game both teams' offenses should be somewhat close to the vest. As witnessed in the Gtech/ Iowa game offenses tend to get out of sync or rhythm when not playing in awhile thus giving defenses an edge. Both teams' last game was Dec 5th. that's quite a layoff.
80% of the betting public is on Alabama pushing the line to -4 in many spots. Hedgie sees some value in Texas here but prefers to bowl his last ball on....
UNDER 46 3 stars

ice cold hedgie done for season???

this is hedgie's performance yesterday:

4 bowl picks...4 losers

what's better than being on a chilly streak and waking to a mailbox full of hate mail !!?

it's bad enough that hedgie is hemmoraging cash from all orafices . getting bombarded with negative comments is just the ICING that makes the hedgie realize it's probably a good time to shut it down for awhile....

discipline is key in the gambling world and it's clear the hedgie has no grasp on the college football bowls right now. so there will be no more posts in college bowls the rest of this season. there aren't many left anyway but for those that care hedgie was leaning to 'under 45.5' in the texas/bama game......

the hedgie will however try to end the season on a good note with something it's had success with: THE NFL

so for the loyal followers that have been supportive in years past and continue to be now, here is hopefully a full slate of games to get the new year started on track......

Cleveland/Jacksonville UNDER 36 3 stars

neither team has much to play for here and with 25 MPH WINDS and temps n the low teens the hedgie can't see much scoring here at all. browns have been riding jerome harrison and the jags only real weapon has been MJD. hedgie sees alot of running and clock churning in this ho hummer.....

Philly/Dallas EAGS +3 3 stars

eags arethe hottest team in the nfc right now with 6 straight wins. a win here would give eags the 2nd seed in the nfc and with mcnabb passing for 2 straight 300 yard games and the eags getting jeremy maclin back there are just too many weapons for the cowboys to deal with

Bengals/Jets Bengals +10 3 stars

nbc chose this as their primetime flex game for 835pm kickoff. the motivation apears to be all on the jets side for this one. BUT this bengals team wants to keep momentum going. Marvin Lewis knows all too well getting crushed in the final game of 2005 vs the chiefs and carrying that into a playoff loss. This is a different bengals team that has bonded through 2 deaths this yr (Vicky Zimmer (mike zimmer wife) and Chris Henry). Quotes from Cincinatti Enquirer yesterday from Marvin Lewis:

"We're probably in a similar situation but actually there is more to play for," Lewis said. "That was a different team. We're in a different state.

"We're going to play to win a football game. We're going to go ahead and end this thing the right way and keep this momentum we've had. Since the meltdown in San Diego and the lapses in Minnesota, we've played good football the last 6-7 weeks and want to continue playing that way."

And Carson Palmer:

"Yeah. Just momentum-wise and confidence-wise, playing against the best defense in the league and going out and being successful gets you rolling for that next week in the Wild Card game," Palmer said. "We want to play because we like to win, we like to compete, but also because this is as good as the competition gets on offense."

add this all up and the fact that the meadowlands will be cold and windy with a prediction for a low scoring game (34 over/under) gives reason to believe the bengals will keep this within the number.

Atlanta/Tampa Bay Falcons -1.5 2 stars

most think this game lacks motivation but the hedgi sees th falcons getting healthier and wanting to end their season with a Win which would give the franchise the first back to back winning seasons in Franchise history. The falcons win when they run the ball. The bucs have given up 150 yards or more in 5 of their last 7 games. nuf said...

Denver/Kansas City UNDER 38 2 stars

the broncos can sneak into the playoff with a jets or ravens setback. with josh mcdaniels mysteriously suspending brandon marshall and tony scheffler this leaves the game in hte hands of the denver defense which should be able to contain KC. the chiefs need to run the ball with jamal charles to have a chance and the bronocs thin at wr (also possibly without eddie royal) will rely on the ground game and it's defense....

TEASER: Chargers +3.5 & Steelers +3.5 2 stars

a RARE teaser from the hedgie here. Chargers want to stay sharp and keep win streak going and even with backups in 2nd half Billy Voleck should be able to come away with a win. Not to mention Jim Zorn's last game as skins coach and traveling to west coast makes hedgie wonder if skins have any gas left in tank. Norv Turner was the first scapegoat coach fired by Daniel Snyder and i'm sure he'll have a good gameplan to stick it to Snyder's club

Steelers are the defending Super Bowl Champs and still have an outside shot at making the playoffs. Mike Tomlin's tam will not hand the trophy over without a serious fight...

BEST OF LUCK TO ALL !!!!

* the hedgie does this analysis on ALL IT's GAMES and backs all it's recommendations with it's own dough. It's time consuming especially for a free blog site. The loyal followers know this but it's a reminder to those who may be new to the site. Depending on today's outcomes the hedgie may or may not be posting any more this season. remember , it's a MARATHON not a sprint. You can be assured to see the hedgie blogging again by next August if not sooner....

bowling continues....

No Illinois +7 2 stars

South Carolina -3 (-120) 3 stars

Okl St +3.5 (-120) 1 star

Arkansas -7 (-120) 1 star

* buying the half point on a few key numbers today

happy new years

florida state + 3 2 stars

cinci +13 3 stars