The Super Bowl has many storylines and angles with two weeks til gametime. The Hedgie has been focused on Gronk as a major factor in this game. He was recently cleared to play in the past 48 hours.
Interestingly there have been some large multi milliondollar wagers placed on the eagles. This has driven the opening line down form Pats -6.5 to Pats -4. There are even some Pats -3.5s out there.
The over / under has been set at 48. In a few spots it's climbed. The betting public generally likes to see scoring so this line may creep up to 49 or 49.5 by kickoff.
Hedgie will try and keep it simple. Both defenses have good stats. One stat that sticks out is the Eagles ON THE ROAD. The Hedgie bet Eags both home games where they average giving up nly 12.4 Points per Game. However, The Eags give up this season an ave of 23.5 on the road. Also, under Doug Pederson the eags have allowed 24.7 PPG in 16 road games which has produced an 11-4-1 OVER mark.
This game script seems to set up as one where Brady will throw alot. Gronk is healthy and the Pats Rbs having a speed advantage over the Eags linebackers . Also, the Eags like to rotate their D-Linemen and keep them all fresh. What do you think Brady will do to combat that? NO Huddle perhaps?
Hedgie leans towards Pats -4 and even Better 3.5 if you can find it. Also leaning towards over 48.
REFEREES : Gene Steretore will be heading the officiating crew. Upon review this crew tends to call more pass defense calls than normal. So expect a couple penalties in that area which also lends itself to more scoring
As the game gets closer to kickooff Hedgie thinks Pats money will flow in (especially when people see the big ole beast gronk warming up). The line will move around today as the money flows in different directions...
As of now Hedgie is seeing :
Pats -3.5 & 48.5 at one of his spots ....and Pats -4.5 & 49 in another (sportsbook.ag)
The irresitable play of the day is a 7 point TEASER (-130) :
In the end it's Gronk who gives the headache and helps Brady open up the passing game...
PATS +3.5 & OVER 41.5 3 stars
some fun PROPS to consider:
First Half UNDER 24 - slight hedge here but the Pats are a 2nd half team and tend to go under in the first half
Dion Lewis OVER 49.5 yards rushing
Lewis OVER 4 Receptions
Tom Brady OVER 25 completions
NO SCORE FIRST 6 MINUTES (-125)
First Player to score TD......Stay Tuned...
danny amendola 13/1 (sportsbook.ag)