It's a big weekend ahead and as a bettor you could make an argument for ANY of the teams you WANT to win. So let's be careful and not bet on who we 'want' or give too much credence to our 'recency biases'...
Having said that let's look at some meaningful trends and historical stats..
Wildcard last week : UNDER 4-0
Divisional Round since 2010 : OVER 24-12
Divisional Rounds sine 2011 : FAVORITES of 9 or more points are 8-2 ATS
Divisional Rounds since 2016: HOME TEAMS 6-0 ATS on Saturday 1-4 ATS on Sunday
The past 3 years Divisional Rounds OVERS 8-4 ...
NOON : FCS Championship JMU vs North Dakota State
This line opened pickem and 52 total. Both these teams are very good. ND St #1 15-0 vs JMU #2 14-1 . Both teams have strong defenses and first year Head Coaches who play a bit conservative. The play here was earlier in the week when it became apparent there would be high 25mph winds. SO the UNDER has been bet all way action from 52 down to 47. It could still be a small play under but Hedgie sees some money in on ND st and would prefer a tease getting one of these teams over a full TD. Right now there are some . ND st -1.5s out there . So the play is :
TEASER : JMU +7.5 and UNDER 53 2 stars
4:35pm : Vikings @ 49ers
The Hedgie has bet ON this Viking Team a lot this year . There's a lot to like as Kirk Cousin's has had a great statistical year and thrives when he can establish the run with RB Cook and execute play action. Zimmer is a great defensive coach and you saw what they did to the Saints last weekend. BUT , they now much travel on a short week (only 6 days) after a hard fought OT game n the dome and go play a well rested and healthier San Fran team outdoors on grass. The 49 ers are getting 3 defensive starters back and Hedgie thinks this will be the difference. With the speedy Dee Ford back this will allow San Fran to put a lot of pressure on Cousins. When chased out of the pocket Cousins is at his worst. He tends to makle poor decisions. Not many teams can force this as the Vikes prefer the running game and play action. But the 49ers can and will . On the other side of the ball the 49ers also have a strong running game and once they establish the run with their 3 headed backfield of Mossert , Breida and Coleman then the play action will open up. The 49ers added WR Sanders at the trade deadline. The combo of Sanders Deebo Samuels and TE Kittle really opened up the offense for Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy G as the season wore on. As this game wears on the 49ers will pull away. Perhaps we'll see a bad Cousins INT as well so a little more scoring is possible with teams knowing this could be their last game of the season. As mentioned above the stats and trends point to the home favorite and the over......
San Fran -7 2 stars
OVER 44 1 star
TEASER : San Fran -1 & OVER 3 stars
8:15 Titans @ Ravens
What a great upset for the Titans last week ! Vrable stole a page from Belechik by establishing the run , getting a lead, manipulating the game clock down and playing field position . And it worked. That's who this team is. A run first team behind NFL rushing leader Travis Henry with Ryan Tannehill making plays off play action. The Titan WRs came into their own as the year wore on as well and rookie AJ Brown is a real threat on the outside.
BUT once again this road warrior team must now play their 3rd week in a row ON THE ROAD on a SHORT WEEK. Henry has carried the ball 66 times the past 2 games and hedgie wonders if this team will run out of gas. The Ravens are the leagues best team statistically . They won home field throughout and average over 30 points per game behind a strong defense and MVP QB Lamar Jackson. Starting RB Ingram is questionable with a calf but Hedgie is not concerned. He will probably play but backup GUS Edwards is also very good and RB Justice Hill is coming on strong as well. The Ravens are the highest scoring team in the first quarter this year. with a +94 point differential. They are very well coached and will be ready . They also have the best kicker in the NFL who they relied on when the 49ers came to town. The 49ers gave the Ravens all they could handle earlier in the season and with the game tied 17-17 . Justin Tucker hit a 49 yarder with no time left. Tucker is the most accurate kicker in NFL History and he provides the Ravens with a huge advantage. Speaking of Kickers , have you ever heard of Greg Joseph? The Titans signed him late in the season and he's made all his PATS BUT HAS YET TO ATTEMPT A FG this year . Hedgie sees a missed FG saturday night from Joseph which will hurt the Titans. Missed FGs also lead to opponents points ! After missed FGs this year . NFL teams converted to points 84% of the time. So rather than thinking of a missed FG as a lean towards the under it can also lead to a quick strike and good field position for the opponent. Once again the well rested team who earned home field advantage should prevail and cover. Oh ya, one last note - Titans LB Brown who got hurt in the Pats game is ruled out. He's very good at covering TEs which s a strength of the Ravens offense. Since there is rain in the forecast and the line has moved up from Ravens -9 & 47 . to Ravens -10 and 47 the HEDGIE will stick with just one play this game:
TEASER : RAVENS -3 and OVER 41 3 stars (you can still get -9.5 and do a 6.5 point teaser)
EXOTIC TEASER : It's been another good year for the Hedgie so why not throw in a 6 team Teaser Saturday Slammer ! Take 6.5 points and get 5/5 - 1
JMU +7.5
JMU / ND State UNDER 52.5
San Fran -0.5
San Fran / Vikings OVER 37.5
Ravens -3
Ravens/Titans OVER 40.5
$100 wins $550
