NFL Rookies may TEASE you with Potential.....but the Hedgie likes Teasing and Fading Rookie QBs for Profits

 

Trevor Lawrence had made 3 starts in the NFL . He's still adjusting to the faster speeds and trying to figure out defenses.  He's thrown 5 TDs and & 7 INTs.  His QBR rating is a lowly 23.1 which is 30th in the NFL.   

So are the Bengals good enough to lay over a full touchdown (-7.5)  to the Jags !? Vegas isn't stupid and they know there's always that chance for a backdoor cover.  The Jags gave a scare to the  Cardinals last week until Lawrence threw a PICK SIX.... 

So the Hedgie will continue to Tease good teams vs the Rookie QBs until the trend stops...

TEASERS  :

BENGALS -1.5 & SAINTS -1 (Saints fist home game and Gmen really struggling ) 3  STARS 

BENGALS -1.5 & LIONS +8.5  (Lions showing a lot of fight while Bears look lost)  2 STARS

BENGALS -1.5 & TITANS -1  (Jets QB Wilson is 31st in QBR behind an injured Oline) 1 STAR

BENGALS -1.5 & BUCS -1  (Pats OLINE also struggling and Belechik cant throw any schemes at                                                          TB12 that he hasn't already seen)                   2 STARS

The Key here is believing in the Bengals .  They are coming off a great road win over rival Steelers and are now 2-1. Their defense is better than expected and Joe Burrow is rounding back into form and has new rookie toy Chase to throw to.  Urban Meyer is also adjusting to the NFL and the Jags look  sloppy.

The Hedgie is coming off another good Saturday going 3-1-1

Welcome to the NFL Boys.  Lawrence and Fields both starting today will running for their lives as they still try to adjust to reading NFL defenses....TEASER SPECIAL BELOW

1pm ET     Bengals +3 (-120)  2 stars 

    Steelers are very banged up . Big Ben has an injured Pectoral muscle but will give it a go. JT Watt has been ruled OUT amongst other players.  Bengals will be competitive and maybe even pull the upset.

1PM ET    Colts +6 (-120)  1 star

     Colts QB Carson Wentz is a game time decision with ailing ankles. HC Reich has options and may go with Jacob Eason or Brett Hundley.  In Hedgie's opinion neither is much of a downgrade and this game is all about the Colts being focused and not slipping to 0-3 which would ruin their playoff chances.  This will be a hard fought game.

1PM ET    Pats -2.5 (-120 ) 3 stars

     The Saints have been on the road now for a MONTH !  This is their 3rd road game and Hedgie thinks Bill Belechik will have a nice game plan vs  QB Winston. 

TEASERS :  This  Week's card  looks like a teaser week.  Let's not forget  The Hedgie already has 2 open teasers from early in the week : Panthers -2 / Cardinals -1...Panther's -2 / Ravens -1.5

Today also looks appealing and when playing with house money let's keep it going :

1PM ET :  TEASER : CARDINALS -2 & BROWNS -1  2 stars

       Both Rookie QBs start today and will most assuredly have trouble reading their opponent's NFL defense. Cards and Browns both have good defenses and should confuse and harass both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields. 

Hedgie Saturday NCAFF

Notre  Dame +6.5 2 stars 

South Carolina +5.5 1 star 

Boston college +1 2 stars 

Iowa UNDER 44 1 star

Washington -7 (-115) 2 stars 

Hedgie's Humpday Thoughts

 

Texans QB Tyrod Taylor started the season off red hot but just last week injured his Hamstring and if not officially ruled out he soon will be.   Deshaun Watson will not be playing which leaves the Texans with rookie QB Davis Mills who will have to prepare on a short week vs a surging Carolina Panthers.

      The Hedgier doesn't like laying a full touchdown or more on the road vs a divisional foe. The current line is Panthers -7.5.  This line is already creeping higher and if we learned anything from week 1 it's that the vegas bookmakers do NOT want to get burned on TEASERS.  Week 1 the public loaded up on BUCS TEASERS and theline went from -7.5 to -9. Well, when the Bucs won 31-29 and nly by 2 points alot f those late teasers were BURNED. But the Early Teasers cashed in !

   SO let's be EARLY this week !   There are some attractive favorites to tease down this week :

PANTHERS -1.5 & CARDINALS -1.5  ( Cards at Jags )

PANTHERS -1.5 & BROWNS -1.5 (Browns hosting Bears . Dalton dinged up might not start)

PANTHERS -1.5 & RAVENS -1.5 (Ravens @ Detroit )

   All 1 star 

The Hedgie is off to a 3-1 start this week....

This is a pic of LAST YEAR'S Raiders Oline ....They no longer have Brown at LT  , WOOD was injured Week 1 and Inconito is not playing today either.  1st rd Draft pick Leatherwood is going up against WATT . The Steelers D will Feast today

as per Wednesday early post :

1PM ET :  Panthers +3.5 2 star  -  (see wednesday analysis - update : 8 Saints assistants will not be available for this game due to Covid Protocols).    Home Division Dog +3.5 is the play  

1PM ET :  Steelers -5 3 stars (see wednesday analysis.  since then Josh Jacob RB has been scratched also.  The Raiders have a short week, travel west to east for an early start , and have plenty of injuries.  starting guard Wood is out and rookie LT Leatherwood makes his debut road start and will go against TJ WATT.  Lay the points and will be incorporating a teaser

425pm ET :  Chargers -3 vs Cowboys 1 star .  Dak and the Dallas offense looked good vs the Bucs.  But the Cowboys continue to battle injuries.  No WR Gallup this game and starting tackle Collins is out starting a 5 game suspension.   MORE IMPORTANTLY the suspect Dallas defense will be without star DE LAWRENCE ....AND DT Gregory will miss due to covid.    Tough spot for America's Team which always tends have have extra public betting support.  Great value  with 

   CHARGERS -3 

     PS if you like betting player props consider Justin Hebert OVER 300 passing yards 

EXOTIC TEASER :   3 TEAM 6 Point Teaser. :  $100 pays +150 

PATS pickem / STEELERS Pickem / BRONCOS pickem  3 stars 

  These lines have ALL been moving higher all week.  Belechik and Fangio vs rookie Qbs and the Steelers hosting Raiders banged up and short week is the theme.  

The Hedgie starts the week with a Friday win and has 3 plays today...

 

2:30pm. Purdue @ Notre Dame

     Notre Dame's renovated visitor tunnel won't fit Purdue's Famously Large Drum and Notre Dame won't allow the drum through the home side tunnel.  This is because ND is planning on drumming Purdue themselves.   The fighting Irish have started the season 0-2 ATS and won a couple close games but Hedgie thinks the #12 ranked team in the nation  will tighten up a few mistakes and get healthy at home today . Purdue top RB Horvath is out 4-8 weeks after breaking his fibula last week as well.  Irish n a drumming...

    Notre Dame -7 (-120)  3 stars 

3:30pm Alabama @ Florida

       Hedgie posted an early take on the Florida Gators +15.5 on Wednesday night.   You can look back and see analysis.  Today the line sits Bama -14.  Anything +15 or more is a 1 star play.  Keep an eye on the lines.  

    Florida +15.5 1 star

6pm East Carolina @ Marshall

    Marshall is off to a great start this year with their offense averaging 46.5 points per game. The ECU Pirates are making their first road trip of the year and have historically not been a competitive road team. It's Marshalls defense that'll get the cover here. 

   Marshall -10  2 stars  

FRIDAY NIGHT NCAAF

 Illinois +7 1 star

NFL THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

 

Remember last years playoffs?  Taylor Heinicke got an unlikely start vs the Bucs at home and led the Washington Football Team in a very scrappy battle vs the eventual SB Champs.  Due to Fitzpatrick's week 1 injury Heinicke gets the start again tonight vs the Ny Giants .  Both teams are 0-1 and Washington is -3.5 favorite . The Total opened up at 43 and has been bet down to 40.5 . This game has all the makings of a tight low scoring defensive battle . Hedgie will stay away from this game tonight and enjoy watching the crafty Heinicke .  The NY Giants OLINE is a mess, they have no TE Engram tonight and star RB Barkley is still not 100% healthy. 

 To Recap yesterday's post and Hedgie early action this week :

NFL : Carolina Panthers +3.5 1 star 

NFL :  Steelers -5 1 star

NCAAF : Florida +15.5  1 star 

More plays coming tomorrow....

 

As Draftkings expands and add millions of new gamblers....so does The The Hedgie's ability to catch the best LINES !

 

DRAFTKINGS now operates legally in 14 States .  And more states will be coming online soon.  

As a result there are hundreds of thousands of new bettors in the country.  This new found action will move the betting lines from state to state and across the country .  It's important to have multiple outlets and not just Draftkings for instance.  Fan Duel   & BetMGM are other options as well and they all have varying prices on the games.   

  Also that makes lines MORE AVAILABLE EARLY IN THE WEEK.  The Hedgie loves this and will try to post some early or midweek thoughts throughout the season.

  This week there are a few opportunities the Hedgie is trying to seize upon. 

   The New Orleans Saints just blew out the Packers last week and now must travel to a division foe in Carolina.  The Saints also have had a corona virus breakout of 6 offensive staff and a player (8 Total in the organization).   This can only be a distraction.   The line was originally a bit high ( An overreaction to the week 1 win) . The Panthers were looking attractive at +4 or +3.5. But now with the rona news the line will be creeping down and money will be bet on the Panthers.  If you can get the Panthers at +3.5 or more it's a 1 star 'take'

   Another opening line that looks like an early 'take' is the Pittsburgh Steelers -5 hosting the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders just got an emotional home game Monday night thrilling win over the Baltimore Ravens and now must travel across the country , on a short week,  to an early time zone and have their starting Guard Wood out for the season with a torn ACL.  This does NOT setup well vs a Steelers team with a very good defense.    Lay the -5 NOW before t goes higher.  1 star 

In College ball there's a YUGE game at the Swamp.  Florida hosts Alabama as a double digit dog and this crowd will be wild.  Bama's QB Young is making his first career road start and it's a lot of points to be laying . The line is already moving  Florida's favor. If you can get the Florida Gators at +15.5 or +15 its a 'take'.  The line will be creeping towards 14 and maybe even lower so grab as an early 1 star play

Hedgie will have more plays for Saturday and Sunday but as the betting landscaper changes across the country The Hedgie will evolve , adapt and capitalize with the changes.

 Thursday Nights game  Washington hosting the NY Giants -3.5 and 41 as the total.  With Ryan Fitzpatrick out this game feels like a defensive slugfest but the line opened at 43 and has already come down with the news.  This will most likely be a 'pass' come kickoff .

  Good Luck as Always !

The Hedgie was 2-0 Saturday and now is ready for the full slate of Week 1 in the NFL

1 PM :    Steelers / Bills 

     Big Ben Roethlisburger showed up to training camp in great shape after going on a strict diet.  He acknowledged he doesn't eat avacado ice cream like tom brady but by Ben's appearances maybe he'll be referred to as 'Medium Ben' by the end of this season.  The Steelers have a new offensive coordinator and philosphy and drafted Najee Harris as their first pick.  The main concern here is the Steelers O Line but draft pick Harris is a great pass catching RB and Big Ben will be more nimble.   The Steelers are great road warriors going 10-3 Ats their past 13. so if Hedgie sees +7 that will be a play.  But with the explosive Bills Offense this game points more towards...

        OVER 48  3 stars

1PM:  Colts/ Seahawks 

     The Seahawks have been an amazing 12-1 in the Eastern Time zone straight up since 2018 (as per espn) .  The past 2 seasons Russell Wilson is also 8-2 outright ....HOWEVER only 3-6-1 against the spread.    The Colts are legit .  Hedgie loves HC Frank Reich who worked in Carson Wentz in his past successes.  Wentz and star Guard Nelson were both recovering from injuries and there was some uncertainty about their status. But BOTH WILL GO today which is why Hedgie loves the Home Dog. Hedgie believes Vegas had shaded a little too high the Seahawks based on the recent public perception and media attention that Russell Wilson gets.  Wilson had very little work in the preseason so Hedgie will gladly take ....

        COLTS +3  3 stars 

1 PM:  Jaguars /Texans

      The Texans offseason was a disaster.  There's almost no positive news coming from this franchise. While in Jacksonville there's plenty of hype. The Jags have a new Head Coach in Urban Meyer and drafted the #1 pick QB Trevor LAwrence. Both will be making their debuts today n the NFL.    The Hedgie knows the Texans are in rebuild mode. But these are professionals and behind the leadership of QB Tyrod Taylor will give max effort in this  spot (week 1) .  Home Divisional Dogs week 1 also hit at an above average rate. So the contrarian play here is ...

          TEXANS +3  1 star

4:25PM Packers/ Saints 

      Due to Hurricane IDA this game was moved from New Orleans to Jacksonville.  There's alot of logistics that goes into moving an entire team on short notice.  The players have also had to deal with family emergencies and distractions that come with a Hurricane ripping through their home town.  The vegas line didn't move much off this news.  Packers have been favored by -3 , 3.5. maybe -4 agt some spots.    Sean Peyton is ne of the best coaches around and Hedgie doesn't love the idea of going against a good saints team as a home dog.  However,  Aaron Rogers is the opponent and after a tumultuous offseason Hedgie thinks He will come out firing .  Rogers is a great game manager as opposed to the new saints starting QB (Jameis Winston) and Hedgie thinks Rogers will find a way to win.   Hedgie's best angle in this gamne is to best the Packer to simply win outright on the Monelyline.  Thats. anywhere from -185 to -175 depending on the sportsbook. 

      PACKERS -175 MONEYLINE 1 star 

4:25PM Broncos /Giants 

    The Broncos have a legitimate defense and are on the upswing. But under HC Fangio have NEVER WON IN SEPTEMBER . The Hedgie thinks this game is a big focus for Denver and thus the announcement that veteran Teddy Bridgewater would start game 1.   

          BRONCOS -3  2 stars 

NFC WEST TEASER SPECIAL

     This is a very popular public play but the public is often right these days.  The Rams an d 49ers both have high aspirations this year and both have very good teams.  The rams opened -7.5  vs the Bears while the 49ers opened -7.5 vs the Lions.    Both these lines are climbing so the 6 point teaser is very important on EXECUTION of the line.   Many witnessed the same affect on the Bucs vs Cowboys. That line climbed from -7.5 to -9 or even higher and the public got BURNED when the final score was 31-29.  SO The Hedgie will play the teaser only at. -8 or -8.5 or better n both lines...currently the play is :

      TEASER : RAMS -2 & 49ers -2.5 1 star 

A light Saturday for The Hedgie....Never Forget

 

The Hedgie doesn't love today's card but does like two games to go OVER the Total :

Toledo / Notre Dame OVER 55 3 stars

UNC / Ga State  OVER 66 2 stars

Good Luck !

The Hedgie's Opening NFL Play of the 2021 Season is Tonight !

 

The Super Bowl Champion Bucs Return ALL 22 Starters 


Tonight opens a new NFL Season with the Tampa Bay Bucs hosting the Dallas Cowboys.  This line has been Bucs -6.5 for the  past month .  Dak Prescott appears ready to start his first game since last year when he broke his leg in a gruesome injury .  HOWEVER,  his Offensive line is NOT READY and banged up. 4 time pro bowler Zach Martin is on the Covid 19 list and will not play.   Connor Williams has had limited reps and La'el Collins has been dealing with neck stingers the past month.    
  On the other hand the Bucs are completely healthy and Tom Brady is in sync with his offense just as he was when the season finished.  Last year it took Brady and his offense  6 weeks to really gel. Now as per star WR. Mike Evans ' We are miles ahead of where we were last year'. 
So where is the spread now ?  On game night?     The Hedgie clearly loves the Bucs -6.5. BUT that line is no longer here.  The betting public  knows all this recent news and is ALL OVER THE BUCS. The line has gone to Bucs -9 and in some spots Bucs -10. The total has gone from. 51 to 52.  The Bucs are the only side here tonight and for the few that got down on the earlier line the The Hedgie recommends :

TEASER : BUCS -3 and OVER 46 2 stars 

Prediction : Bucs 33 - Boys 20

Opening Saturday of the 2021 Season starts tomorrow ! The Hedgie has 3 plays

 12:00 Pm ET : Western Michigan @ Michigan

    Just can't trust Harbaugh laying a big number like this . Michigan is 4-11 against the spread it's last 15 non conference opponents. Grab the points with the better Qb in Kaleb Eleby.

     Western Michigan +17  1 star 

12:00 pm ET  : Penn State @ Wisconsin

      Penn State finished last season on a hot streak .  HC Franklin has a nice 8-3 ats record as a road dog last 11 games. This feels like too many points to be spotting in this big ten battle.  There is also money coming in on Penn St as many lines are now +5.5.  Hedgie found +6 (-115) so if you play the nittany lions it's best to grab the points now .

          Penn State +6  (-115) 1 star

4:30 ET :  UL- Lafayette  @ Texas  

   Coach Bill Napier's Rajun Cajuns are ranked 23rd in the nation and are riding a 7 game win streak . #19 Texas starts are new era with new Head Coach Steve Sarkesian and a new starting QB Hudson Card.   9 points feels like a bit much to being laying.

    UL-Lafayette +9  2 stars

Best of luck this season !