Michigan -7 (-120) 1 STAR
Georgia -5.5 2 STARS
The Eagles gift wrapped the Cowboys a 'W' on Christmas Eve yesterday and Hedgie found a lil coal in his stocking this am.....But the Steelers came through and we're on to the next !
1PM Packers @ Dolphins - all the money is in on the packers this week. Bettors are taking Rogers 'experience' , the Packers playoff hopes still alive , anbd Dolphins lost 3 straight....HOWEVER, The Dolphins last 3 were on the road and they are back home. Packers LT Bakhatiari will be OUT for this game. Is. QB Rogers hand healed?? Hedgie sees value on the Dolphins...if you WAIT you can probably get :
DOLPHINS -3 (-120) 3 STARS
HEDGIE STOCKING STUFFER TEASER :
3 TEAMS 6.5 Points - 1 STAR
Dolphins from -3.5 to +3
Broncos from -3 to +3.5
Bucs from -7.5 to -1
$100 pays out $135
LATE GAME SNOOZER : BUCS/CARDS
1st HALF UNDER 20 - 1 STAR
Tonight marks the 50th Anniversary of the Immaculate Reception and Franco was going to attend. He unfortunately passed this week. The Steelers were always planning on dedicating this game to Franco and that team But now it's become even more emotionally charged. The Steelers are playing hard for Mike Tomlin to keep his streak alive of never having a losing season. The Raiders are an indoor team and must now travel to a cold and windy three rivers stadium super charged with emotion.
STEELERS -2 5 STARS
Teaser : Steelers +4 & UNDER 44.5 2 STARS
RIP Mike Leach . There are too many Great people dying too early and along with Franco Harris Mike Leach was another. Interesting timing as the Eagles travel to play the Cowboys and Jalen Hurts will be out with a strained shoulder. Garder Minshew gets the start . He's started in 40 NFL games in his career and is one of the best backup QBs in the league. Vegas adjusted the line from Dallas -1.5 to Dallas -6 on the news and sharp bettors immediately grabbed the +6 with the eagles. The line is now settled in at Dallas -5 or -4.5. The Hedgie does not think there will be that much of a dropoff . The Eagles have better interior lines and lately Dallas has not been playing it's best football. Dak Prescott has thrown 11 INTS in his last 9 games and just last week the Dallas D was scortched for 503 yards by the Jags. LB Vaneresch will be OUT and star LB Parsons had a flu bug earlier in the week .
Minchew dedicated this game to his old Coach Mike Leach and in his eulogy said
"You never really felt like an underdog with him . He had confidence....it was part confidence and part not really giving a fuck in what people thought, you know? It was one of the two. But it was awesome. It was contagious"
Hedgie expects a focused and max effort from the eags
EAGLES +5 5 STARS
Browns -2.5 1 STAR
Teaser: BROWNS +3.5 & UNDER 38.5 1 STAR
Bengals -3 1 STAR
Lions -2.5 2 STARS
Bears +9 1 STAR - QB Fields starts at home off a bye. Eags might be caught looking ahead to Cowboys next week
Jags +4.5 2 STARS - Dallas O Tackle Steele was placed on IR last week. Could they be looking ahead to Eags next week also? Jags playing better. Home Dog
Raiders -1.5 2 STARS - TE Waller and WR Renfrow are both reactivated and back. Pats making 2nd road trip and still only put up 20 points on the Cards last week
Bengals .......might get -3...WAIT for kickoff 4:25pm....-3.5 1 STAR -3 (-120) 3 STARS
TEASER : LIONS +7.5 and Giants +10.5 1 STAR
Time to go 'Bowling"
NCAA
11:00 am Louisville/Cincinnati UNDER 39.5 2 STARS
3:30pm ADDING - Fresno state -3.5 1 star
7:30 pm SMU -4 1 STAR
NFL
1:00 pm Vikings -3.5 1 STAR
4:30pm /8:15pm TEASER : Ravens +8.5 & Bills -1 2 STARS
TEASER : Eagles -1 & Vikings +8.5 3 STARS
TEASER : Eagles -1 & Ravens +8.5 3 STARS
Vikings/Lions OVER 51.5 3 STARS
Dolphins -3 (-120) 2 STARS
49ers -3.5 1 STAR
Texans +17.5 1 STAR (only if 17.5)
Broncos +10 1 STAR ( only at +10)
Falcons Pickem 2 STARS
Titans +4.5 3 STARS
COLTS + 11 2 STARS
TEASER : Giants +8.5 and UNDER 46.5 1 STAR
TCU -1 4 STARS
Fresno State +3 2 STARS
LSU +17.5 1 STAR
Purdue +17 1 STAR
Last Season the Titans lost to the Bengals 19-16 in a BRUTAL home loss . Tannehill threw a terrible INT to cost the Titans the game. Today is chance for payback. The Bengals will be without WR Chase and RB Mixon. The line has dropped from Bengals -2.5 to Bengals -1. The money is flowing in on the right side.
TITANS +1 3 STARS
Washington -3.5 1 STAR
Washington/Falcons OVER 40.5 1 STAR
Jags +4 1 STAR (home dog rested )
TEASER : BUCS +3 & UNDER 48 1 STAR ( high winds today )
Small Card today. Be disciplined
thehedgieblog@gmail.com
Indiana +11 1 STAR
Buffalo -4 1 STAR
James Madison -13.5 1 STAR
LSU -9.5 1 STAR
Vanderbilt +14.5 1 STAR
Texas Tech +2.5 (-115) 2 STARS
Hawaii /San Jose St. OVER 58 2 STARS
USC -4 3 STARS
These days there's not a lot of home field advantage in the NFL. Thanksgiving Day in Detroit is a day there IS home field advantage. The Bills played in Detroit last week due to the Stow Storm in Buffalo. Their travel plans have been a disaster. Not sure how they flew back Sunday , practiced and put together a gameplan in such short notice. The Bills are more talented and should prevail in the end. But Hedgie still wonders about Josh Allen's ARM health. Last week was a run heavy gameplan - to preserve that right arm ?? The Lions have won 2 straight and will be fighting hard under HC Dan Campbell.
The Bills got off to a slow start last week and were down 3-7 after 1s Q vs the Browns. Hedgie sees a similiar game script.
LIONS +3 1st Quarter 2 STARS
LIONS +10 3 STARS
Giants +10 PASS -TOO BANGED UP
Vikings -2.5 1 STAR (only if -2.5) - Don't overreact , Vikings will bounce back
TEASER : Vikings +3.5 & UNDER 48.5 2 STARS
3 TEAM TURKEY TEASER ( 10 points )
1) Bills Lions OVER 44.5 ( down from 54.5)
2) Dallas PICKEM ( down to zero from -10)
3) Vikings +8.5 ( up from -2.5)
Due to a Heavy Snowstorm that hit Orchard Park with up tp 77 inches of Snow the game was moved to Detroit. The Bills held zoom practices and were able to fly out to Detroit Saturday afternoon. Most sportsbooks cancelled the original bets where the line opened. Buffalo -8 and 48. The line reopened at Bills -7.5 and 49.5 . The total adjusted higher due to Ford Field being indoors.
1PM Browns / Bills PASS. too many variables and Bills had some players with the Flu this week
1PM Panthers +13.5 1 STAR Baker gets the Start . Lamar Jackson had the flu friday.
1PM Washington -3 ( -115) 1 STAR Heineke gets start. Commanders have momentum)
1PM Giants -3 (-115) 1 STAR (Huge Coaching advantage )
1PM Jets +3.5 3 STARS. ( Matt Patricia as O coordinator. QB Mac Jones REALLY struggling)
1PM Jets +9.5 and UNDER 44 1 STAR
1PM Falcons -2.5 2 STARS Money been flowing on the Bears all week QB Fields has been playing well. Bears RB Herbert was placed on IR and the Falcons have had 10 days to prepare.
4:05PM Raiders +3 1 STAR (only if +3)
4:25PM TEASER : VIKINGS +8 & OVER 42.5 1 STAR
(Uconn defeated Liberty to become bowl eligible last week )
12:00 PM Connecticut +11 1 star - Huskies are now bowl eligible at 6-5 and are 9-2 ATS under HC Jim Mora
7:30pm Arkansas +2.5 1 Star
12:00PM Illinois +18 1 star. - cold and windy. 2 string defenses. too many point to lay for michigan who has a game on deck with Ohio State
11:00PM Hawaii +11 3 STARS Rainbows been playing well lately and are 5-1 ATS past 6 games
The Titans have a few starters out on this short week . But the Hedgie thinks HC Mike Vrable is a better coach and will have his team ready as a home underdog tonight. QB Tannehill is back under center and the Packers best defensive player Rashon Gary is out for the season from a torn ACL 2 weeks ago.
Expect a low scoring game as both teams want to establish the run. Money has been in on the Packers at -3 so wait and take...
TITANS +3.5 (-115) 1 STAR
TEASER : Titans +9 & UNDER 47 1 STAR
Keith Mitchell 30-1
Webb Simpson 60-1
Scott Stallings 83-1
Nick Hardy 90-1
Ben Griffin 98-1
TOP 20 :
Keith Mitchell +190
Nick Hardy +260
sorry for the late post
Seahawks +3 (-115) 3 STARS. you should be able to get +3 by kickoff. This game is in GERMANY and listed as a Bucs home game which it obviously is not. Bucs should have beat the Rams handily last week and did not because they are just not that good. Bucs 23rd ranked run defense will have their hands full with Seahawks RB Walker III
Steelers Pickem - 3 STARS - TJ Watt is back. Steelers off a bye and get a banged up Saints team
Vikings +7 - 4 STARS this line opened Bills -8 then when QB Allen was thought to be out dropped to -3.5. Allen was announced ACTIVE today but HEDGIE DOES NOT BUY IT. The Bills have been playing coy all week and it just does not make sense to have Josh Allen out there risking further injury to his elbow. It requires rest and the Bills have their sites set on a SB. QB Keenum is servicable and Hedgie thinks will get most if not all of the snaps today. but this line should be more like Bills -3.
Bears -2.5 - 3 STARS - Lions first game on grass . QB Goff notorious for playing poorly in cold weather. Bears and QB Fields have been surging the past 3 weeks.
TEASER : Seahawks +8.5 & 49ers -1.5. 2 STARS
Jimbo Fisher signed the largest guaranteed contract in College Football history last year. The Team is on a 5 game losing streak has injuries and travels to Auburn tonight as a 1 point favorite. Auburn is also on a 5 game losing streak but already fired their coach and the players seemingly will want to play hard and get a win for their newly promoted coach, Cadillac Williams.
Fisher's buyout if he is fired at the conclusion of each season:
12:00PM - West Virginia +8.5 1 STAR
4:00 PM - South Carolina +8.5 1 STAR
12:00PM - Arkansas +4 1 STAR
7:30PM - Auburn -1 2 STARS
12:00PM - Illinois -6 (-115) 2 STARS
7:30PM - TCU +7.5 (-120) 3 STARS
3:30PM - Mississippi +11.5 3 STARS
So far this Fall the PGA tour has seen a lot of Chalk in the winner's circle :
11/6 Mayakoba Russell Henley 50-1 (19th highest)
10/30 Butterfield Bermuda Seamus Power 18-1 (3rd highest)
10/23 CJ Cup Rory McIlroy 6-1 (FAVORITE)
10/16 ZOZO Keegan Bradley 37-1 (16th highest)
10/9 Shriners Tom Kim 22-1 (5th Highest)
Usually by now we have a couple longer shots that hit the board but as the Fall swing comes to an end we now head to Houston where Memorial Park will play very tough. These current players tend to play in tougher conditions better and/or hit the long ball which will be an advantage here. Pendrith was super hot this past summer and named to the International presidents Cup team. Mitchell and Steele are great Drivers of the golf ball. Dahmen has been HOT lately. Straka is mispriced , has been HOT as well and won on a similiarly difficult course last year at the Honda ( also has bermuda greens) . Wise has been rounding into form and tough courses tend to fit his style of play. Shriners 64th ; CJ Cup 6th ; Mayakoba 15th . Coming off a 64 last Sunday Hedgie is Bullish on WISE this week ....
Hedgie WINNERS : TOP 5 TOP 10 TOP 20
Aaron Wise 18-1 Wise +425 Wise +225 Wise EVEN
Joel Dahmen 50-1 Joel +400 Joel +175
Taylor Pendrith 50-1
Keith Mitchell 65-1
Sepp Straka 80-1
B Steele 100-1
S Scheffler (6-1 PASS) Scotty EVEN
Depending on where you shop for lines you can get some nice mispriced longshots
Adam Long 120-1 small ( most shops have him in the 80-1100 range)
Fancisco Molinari 185-1 ! small (most shops have him 100-125 range)
DFS Lineups coming soon...Best of Luck !
TEASER : SAINTS +8 and UNDER 52 1 STAR
small play , lot's of injuries home team monday night getting more than a TD with a lot of running and clock churning is the play ...
Prediction: Ravens 24-Saints 23
fun player prop: Justice Hill OVER 25.5 RUSHING Yards (-120)
Bucs DT Nicks is back and will help tremendously vs a terrible Rams OLine
Falcons +3 1 STAR
Vikings -3 2 STARS
Panthers +7.5 (-115) 2 STARS
Raiders -2 1 STAR
Seahawks +2 1 STAR
Bucs -2.5 (-120) 3 STARS
Army / Air Force UNDER 41 1 STAR
Kansas State +3 1 STAR (only if 3)
Purdue/ Iowa UNDER 40 1 STAR (heavy winds)
Texas A&M -2 (-115) 2 STARS
James Madison +7 2 STARS ( terrible schedule spot for Louisville)
Tennessee +10 (-120) 2 STARS
LSU +14 (-115) 2 STARS
EMAIL Comments : thehedgieblog@gmail.com
Philly is on a roll and runs the ball well. The Texans Defense is also bad and the Titans just ran ALL OVER them last week. Hedgie never likes laying double digits in the NFL but there is only one way to go here. Eagles were -13. now. -13.5 and mostly -14. Not sure why the Total has not crept down from 46 either. So...
UNDER 46 1 STAR
and...
TEASER : EAGLES -7.5. and UNDER 52 1 STAR
El Camaleon Mayakoba Golf Club
WINNERS :
GRILLO 40-1
TODD 40-1
KUCHAR 55-1
DAHMEN 66-1
KEVIN YU 108-1
TOP 20:
WISE +105
GRILLO +175
POWER +190
KUCHAR +190
TODD +220
JJ SPAUN +250
DAHMEN +250
K YU +425
DFS LINEUPS:
#1 #2 #3
Scheffler Hovland Finau
Power Wise Hoge
Kuchar Spaun Grillo
JJ Spaun Dahmen Spaun
Kevin YU Svensson Dahmen
CT Pan Kevin YU R. Armour
TEASER : Saints +7 & OVER 42.5 1STAR
PANTHERS +4.5 2STAR
STEELERS +11.5 1 STAR
LIONS +4 1 STAR
PATRIOTS -2.5 (-120) 2 STARS
CARDINALS +4.5 1 STAR
SAN FRAN PICKEM 3 STARS
3:30pm Nebraska +7.5 1 STAR
3:30pm Central Florida -1 1 STAR
7:00Pm Kentucky +12 1 STAR
7:30pm Michigan State +23 1 STAR
10:30pm San Diego St / Fresno St OVER 42.5 2 STARS ( Fresno QB is back. get in sooner)
add : NORTHWESTERN +11.5 2 stars
The Bucs are struggling and not the same team they were a year ago. Rumors of Brady and Gisele getting divorced certainly can't help. Tom may be the GOAT ...BUT you think he can just flip a switch on a short week and make his whole team better? His O line has been struggling , his WRs have had injuries and the defense who used to be #1 vs the run are now #17 .
Here come the Ravens and their stout run game. The Ravens have been struggling as well but on a short week I'll take Lamar Jackson and his ability to improvise. This line has also moved from Ravens -2 to Ravens +2 . Hedgie likes Ravens BUT wit the prime time UNDERS hitting over 60% this season Hedgie like a TEASER the MOST .
RAVENS +8 & UNDER 52.5 2 STARS
P.S Denny McCarthy is off to a nice start in The Butterfield Bermuda Championship..
Ravens /Browns OVER 45.5 3 STARS. The Browns defense has been TERRIBLE this season. Many think D coordinator Joe Woods will be let go or replaced...AFTER the bye week. SO we get. the same ole defense this week vs an explosive Lamar Jackson. The Ravens have had their own troubles. SO far in 2022 UNDERS have been hitting 60% but not this game !
Lions +7 2 STARS. - Dak is back ! and the line reflects. However , his first start in awhile and QB Cooper Rush was playing well. Hedgie likes the Lions in their comfortable underdog role. also coming off a bye
Giants +3.5 1 STAR (make sure you get the 'hook'). This line says Barkley's shoulder is hurting. But HC Daboll has been pushing all the right buttons. Hedgie does not trust Jags
Panthers +13 2 STARS. McCaffery was traded and the line jumped. BUT the Pathers have been playing without McCaffery alot anyway. With Brady struggling this is too many points
Titans -2 2 STARS
TEASER: Washington +10 & UNDER 47.5 1 STAR. - Heineke gets he start at QB and Hedgie thinks this is an upgrade. Packers not healthy will lean ion their duo or RBs and keep the clock moving
3:30PM UCLA +6.5 2 STARS - Chip Kelly 0-3 thus far vs his old school Oregon. UCLA off a bye
3:30PM LIBERTY +7 (vs Byu) 2 STARS - HC Hugh Freeze calling this 'biggest game in history of Liberty'
7:00PM Air Force -2 1 STAR - AF at home and the running game seems to have found its rhythm
7:30pm Penn State -5 3 STARS - 'WHITE OUT ' Game at PSU Both QB's dinged up. If Minnesota's Tanner can not go it's a freshman QB up next
Hopkins is BACK from his 6 game suspension and this will no doubt help the Cardinal offense. But WR Brown was injured last week and the Cards trade for Robbie Anderson is going to take time to develop. The Primetime games have been UNDER a lot this season so the total is low. Hedgie thinks the play tonight is :
TEASER : SAINTS +8.5 and OVER 37.5 2 STARS
The PGA Tour heads to Congaree South Carolina with a loaded field . The Course plays 7655 yards with Bermuda Greens. This Tom Fazio design features a lot of sand off the fairways and it will be playing firm and fast . Handicapping the event The Hedgie will put an emphasis on Driving Accuracy & Distance combined with the best Bermuda grass putters. Rory McIlroy is the prohibitive favorite at 6-1 but the Hedgie's betting angles are to look for a winner with mid to long shot odds. One handicapping angle will be weather or not the Players returning from the ZOZO in Japan will be tired and affected with the new time zone.
So here we go :
Jordan Spieth 28-1 coming off a dominant 5-0-0 record at the Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow Hedgie thinks his success will carry forward much like Tom Kim's
Viktor Hovland 29-1 Hovland has really been playing well recently and has posted a couple TOP 5s in his past three starts
Sepp Straka 90-1 after a string of missed cuts he seems to have found something. last 5 starts 45th ; 2nd ; 27th ; 2nd ; 7th
Sepp TOP 20: +230 ( 2.3 to 1)
Rickie Fowler 90-1 Rickie is back ! He switched coaches to Butch Harmon and is finding immediate success with a steeper more reliable swing . Finished 2nd in ZOZO and has confidence back
Rickie TOP 20 : +175
Russell Henley 110-1 great price for a former Georgia bulldog who putts well on Bermuda. He finished 3rd in the 2020 CJ Cup at Shadow Creek ( another Fazio design)
For all you DRAFTKINGS Tournament DFS Players ,two Hedgie Lineups this week :
Scheffler $10,400 McIlroy $11,100
Fitzpatrick $9,800 Hovland $9,200
Wise $7,800 Speith $8,800
Fowler $7,400 Straka $7,400
Putnam $7,400 Mitchell $7,200
Stallings $7,200 L. Hodges $6,300
Feel Free to write questions or comments : Thehedgieblog@gmail.com
Dolphins +3.5 1 STAR - Vikings 1-4 ATS and traveling to the heat of South Florida. Don't trust Kirk Cousins on the road here. Make sure get the 'hook' +3.5
Falcons +4.5 2 STARS - San Fran in a brutal scheduling spot having their 2nd east coast road game. The Niners have a slew of injuries and the Falcons are the only 5-0 team ATS this year.
Panthers +10.5 4 STARS - Panthers fired head coach Rhule and QB Baker Mayfield is out with injury. Baker was playing very poorly so QB PJ WALKER is an UPGRADE here. The Rams O-LINE is still a mess. Last week Cowboys only required 10 passes and 76 yards to beat the Rams last week. Panthers have the formula to keep this game close.
Bills -2.5 3 STARS
Bills/Chiefs OVER 54 2 STARS