The NFL has been difficult to handicap lately. It's a week to week job and there are a lot of moving parts. Once again this is not the week to waste good winnings or chase. Vegas is great at setting lines and many of Today's lines look like tricks or will land right on the number. Hedgie will give thoughts and info and explain why it will do some small teasers....
Let's get started :
Patriots / Bears : This line was Pats -3 Gronk's back seized up last night and he did not make the trip to Chicago. Money in on the Bears and it's now Pats -2 or -1.5. Does no gronk mean an auto play on the Bears !? Heck no. Brady has Edelman back , Gordon getting into a groove and Bear's MAck has a sore ankle.......PASS
Browns / Bucs : This line is bouncing between Bucs -3 and Bucs -3.5. The Bucs Jameis Winston's played well last week and hey return home for a game in hte heat. They theoretically should win. The Brown's best tackler is Out in defense . BUT the Buc's defense is horrendous and gives up many big plays. Browns have covered 4 out of 6 this season so the play is....IF YOU CAN GET +3.5 TEASE BROWNS WITH 7 to +10.5 and OVER 45.5 ....1 star
Bills/ Colts : This line is moving between Colts -7 and Colts -7.5. Bills have a solid Defense . Colts defense is bad. Bill's start Derek Anderson. How do you trust either team ? PASS
Lions/ Dolphins : Lions -3 road favorite coming off a bye. Dolphins go again with backup Osweiler as QB . Hard for hedgie to trust either. Last week Osweiler had good stats but they were padded with Yards after Catch and poor tackling from the Bears. The lean here is that the Osweiler will show his trues colors and not play as well especially after a week of game film for he Lion's to study. Lion's will be fresh Dolphins coming off an OT win. But will the Miami HEAT affect the Lions. too much uncertainty...PASS
Vikings/Jets : Jets have played well at home and are 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog the last 9. The Vikes started off shaky. They come in as a short favorite. SO the big question is are the Vikes for real ? Hedgie thinks so. Cousins is settling in with a 70% completion percentage. The defense is adjusting and coming into form. The Jets are banged up with injuries at WR and in the Secondary... Let's tease the Vike's from -3.5 to +3.5 with another small favorite...
Jags/Texans : The Jags have looked bas the past two weeks. The problem has been that they get behind on the road and have relied too much on Bortles. This week they get a Texan team at home that is 3-3. The texans 3 wins have been shaky at best. The betting perception is that these teams are equal. Hedgie still thinks the Jags are much better. They won't have Fornette at RB and this week traded for Carlos Hyde who will not be playing. The Jag's Defense will step up at home. This line has dropped from Jags -5 to Jags -3.5 . A great TEASER spot to take 7 points and move Jags from -3.5 to +3.5....
TEASER : VIKES +3.5 and JAGS +3.5 1 star
LATE GAMES:
Redskins/ Cowboys : this game is a classic NFC EAST RIVALRY . Should also be known today as JEKYL & HYDE vs JEKYL & HYDE....
Dallas is 3-0 at home and 0-3 on Road. A great tweet this week on the Redskins from Dan Steinberg : "The Redskins are 1-1 in their last 2 games ; 2-2 in their last 4 ; 3-3 in their last 6 ; 5-5 in their last 10 ; 6-6 in their last 12 ; 7-7 in their last 14 ; They 're 10-10 in their last 20 ; They're 16-16-1 in their last 33 ; They're 18-18-1 in their last 37"
Both these teams are hard to figure out ! The rivalry makes it's great. So how do you bet it ? The line opened Redskins -2 all the money poured in on Cowboys based on their last week home W vs Jags. SO now it's Cowboys -1.5. Dallas is starting to click more on offense and Vegas has this line set too low at 41. SO the play is TEASING the HOME DOG UP from +1.5 to +8.5 and Taking OVER 34 (from 41 ) ... REDSKINS +8.5 and OVER 34 1 star
Saints/ Ravens - best game on the board today. The oney is evenly split : do you believe on the home favorite with the better defense ? or the road team and Brees with the better offense. Brees has historically struggled on the road but are the Raven's worthy off laying a FG ? It will be windy in Baltimore so maybe a lean towards the home team & under.....PASS
Rams/ 49 ers : Rams once again big favorites. It's their 3rd game in a row on the road ! 49ers are clearly outmatched but can they put up a fight at home after doing so last night. Kyle Shanahan is a good coach with good gameplans.....line moving around from Rams -9 to Rams -10.....WAIT UNTIL 3:45pm and you might get 49ers +10 or even +10.5.....that's the lean..otherwise PASS
Chiefs/Bengals : both offenses top 10 and HOT...money in n the Chiefs from -6 to -6.5....maybe a late night grab of Bengals +7 ?? otherwise PASS
TO RECAP : THREE TEASERS:
BROWNS +10.5 and OVER 45.5
REDSKINS +8.5 and OVER 34
VIKINGS +3.5 and JAGS +3.5
GOOD LUCK !