NFL CONFERENCE TITLES

On October 14th  the Chiefs went to Foxboro  as  3.5 point underdogs  and lost  43-40.   The Chiefs did not have  Safety Daniel Sorenston,  DE Justin Houston or  Eric Berry in that matchup.  Also , Mahomes threw 2 INTs as the Chiefs lost the turnover battle.  This game should be very different.  The Chiefs defense has been playing much better the past 6 weeks.  Their stats are a bit skewed as well.  They have been leading many games with a potent offense and have given up many meaningless yards late in games.  The defense is top 6  in sacks and should harass Brady today.  Also , Eric Berry is the QB of the defense . He's a veteran who will be handling the play calls from D Coordinator Bob Sutton.  His experience is key in big games like this.  Both teams are coming in healthy.  However  at the WR  spot  the pats are without Josh Gordon and the Chiefs get Sammy Watkins back.   Advantage Chiefs.
    There has also been a lot of discussion about the cold weather this week.  The freezing cold won't happen as predicted and there will not been much wind.  So expect both offenses to have a full playbook at their disposal.   
    An interesting stat :  The past 5 years home teams in title conference games are 10-0.

 Hedgie likes the Chiefs today.  The lines are varying  so if you can get a Chiefs MONEYLINE  -150 or better  take that  and make it 4 stars .  IF not  take the Chiefs -3   3 stars

Hedgie played  :    CHIEFS  MONEYLINE  -145    4 stars 

also some PROP PLAYS: 

1)  Travis Kelce UNDER 84.5  receiving yards   -  Belechik does an incredible job of taking away the opposing team's best weapon  That's Kelce

2)  Sony Michael -   UNDER 81.5  rushing yards  -   The Pats are a passing offense.  James White shares  backfield duties and caught 15 passes last week.   Only was Michael gets over  81.5 yards is if Pats are leading and rushing him constantly in the 4th Quarter. Hedgie doesnt see that game script

The Rams and Saints met earlier in the season and both teams have a little different chemistry.  The line opened as Rams -2  at New Orleans with the Total set at 57.5.   The final score was 45-35 and Drew Brees picked apart a depleted Rams secondary.   Today  the Rams have  Talib back in the secondary  to shadow and help defend Wr Michael Thomas.  The Rams also have RB CJ Anderson and a health Todd Gurley.  If you are HC Sean McVAy  you do not want a shootout again and probably do not want to entrust the game  to Goff on the road. 

The Saints have a strong rushing defense.  But against the eagles they lost starting DT   Rankins.    Hedgie  expects the Rams to attack the Saints interior line and use a ton of Gurley with a CJ Anderson combo. Keep Brees off the field and shorten the game a bit against a rowdy Superdome crowd.   If you've followed the Saints you'll realize that they now run the ball 50% of the time as well.  The first 4 games of the season the  Saints threw the ball 65% of the time.  That's because RB Ingram was suspended. Now that formula has changed.   It's apparent that Brees does not have the big arm strength to make alot of downfield plays. The Saints  lean on  RBs  Kamara and Ingram to win games now.   

The Saints are now  -3  or -3.5  favorites.  So has there really been a 5 point swing in value from these teams?  The Rams are a tad healthier and have a bit more talent.  Dnamukong Suh is playing well now too.

Hedgie leans towards a tight game with both teams leaning on the run game.

SAINTS/RAMS  UNDER 56.5  2 stars

TEASER : RAMS +10 & UNDER 63  1 star

NFL PLAYOFF SUNDAY

Last week in he Wildcard round the Underdogs did well.  Yesterday the Hedgie was on that trend as it appeared strong running games would travel well and the matchups appeared to favor the stronger running teams in the trenches.
   THAT TREND REVERSED and the HEDGIE WILL ADJUST :

It was evident yesterday that the home teams  who were rested had an advantage.  That should continue today.    The Chargers have been  outstanding going 9-0  away from LA.  But they are now n their 3rd straight road game and flying west to east for a 1pm game is not ideal.  What the Hedgie looks at even more is the physical toll it takes  on teams when playing the #1  physical defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens are just that .   Historically teams have not fared well the following week against the spread after playing the Ravens.  Last week was a physical game as expected and the Chargers must be tired.  Melvin Gordon sustained a sprain to his left knee . His right knee was just healing from injury.   A healthy Melvin Gordon would be a huge asset today.  Now the Chargers may have to lean more on  Phillip Rivers who has been  amazing. HOWEVER ,  his last 5 games  he has been  just ok.    His last 5 games Rivers has thrown  4 TDs  6 INTS  and his passer rating is  76.3.  The Chargers face an uphill battle going against a rested Patriots team. The Pats have won a remarkable 8 straight playoff games at home and five of those by double digits.  Brady/ Belechik combo with two weeks of rest and preparation will be too much .

Patriots -4   3 stars 

Teaser : Pats  +2 & UNDER  53   1 star

The Saints are the most heavily favored team in this round  and for a reason.  They are incredible at home in the superdome.  The past two weeks has perhaps helped this team more than any other. Their Offensive line has been banged up but is now as healthy as it's been all season.  The Eagles on the other hand are banged up still . They ALSO come off a physical game vs the Chicago Bears.  They have been dealing with multiple backups in the secondary.  Saints get back  Ted Ginn Wr  this game and Hedgie expects the Saints to be too much at home.   The Eagles also have Darren Sproles who could provide a spark on offense.  The Hedgie prefers a TEASER leaning Saints and Over 

SAINTS  -2 and OVER  46    4 stars 

Saints -8  1 star

NFL SATURDAY

Dearest mother — Our victory frolicking has ceased. We must now begin our march to Kansas City to battle a unit of such great stature, every member has been granted the title of Chief. Our path has been long and winding, but I have never seen the men’s spirits higher. — Andrew

The Colts sure on a roll. Will their 3rd straight road game get the best of them? The Hedgie turns towards strengths vs weaknesses. The Chiefs have been fantastic all year. However, their last 7 games they have gone 1-5-1 against the spread. They have underperformed based on expectations. Losing Kareem Hunt from their backfield is a big deal. They also give up a league worst 5.0 yards per carry. The Colts strength has become their OLINE. They rushed for over 200 yards against the tough Texan defense last week. And Hedgie sees more of the same this week. No better way to slow the Chiefs than to keep Mahomes and his offense off the field. Frank Reich as a HC is also being underrated. Last years Eagles o coordinator has the Colts clicking on all cylinders and believing in themselves. This should be an entertaining game that goes to the end. Grab as many points as you can......

COLTS +6 3 stars

(also leaning over 56 points total)

the LA Rams struggled down the stretch going  2-2. They need a healthy Gurley  badly and might get it.  But vegas has had them overrated all season. The Rams started hot  but only finished  5-7-2 ATS.   Once again their weakness is their opponents strength.  The Cowboys identity is running the football. They upgraded at WR with the aquisition of Cooper and are on an 8-1  run.  Hedgie suspects they will come in loose and give the Rams all they can handle.  Do NOT want to trust Goff laying a TD or more

COWBOYS +7.5  1 star

NCAA champ- no play...

NFL SUNDAY WILDCARD

The Chargers and Ravens met just 2 weeks ago in LA  and the Ravens won 22-10. It was QB River's worst game of the season but the game was closer than the final score indicated.  The Chargers were down 10-16 and driving when Antonio Gates fumbled and the Ravens D returned it for a TD ultimately sealing a 22-10 Win. 
  This should be a great rematch and there are many angles for both teams.  The Hedgie often likes to fade West Coast teams traveling to the East for a 1pm start.  But these Chargers have done that 3 times this year ( @ Bills  @  Browns  @ Steelers ) and won all 3 times. In fact these Chargers are 8-0 on the road.  
 The angle the Hedgie will lean on is the Chargers getting to play the Ravens twice in one month. The Ravens run an unorthodox style with rookie Jackson at the helm.  NFL defenses are great at adjusting.  The Chargers are healthier than they were and get RB Ekeler back for this one as well.  Last meeting the stats show that Rivers didnt have any long completions BUT  two long passes of 27 & 28 yards were called back by penalties.   
    Today , the Hedgie sees the more experienced veteran QB finding a way to prevail.  Rivers is a gamer and while Lamar JAckson has been fantastic if the Chargers get a lead the Ravens QB is only completing 58% and has not been a great passer.  
      Chargers  20  Ravens  16

TEASER:  Chargers +9  and UNDER 48.5    3 stars

Chargers +3    2 stars   (must get +3...2.5s  just play the teaser) 

The Eagles are HOT with Nick Foles back under center and there are some thinking the Magic has returned.  BUT this spot is just too tough for the Eags.  The Bears are the best covering team the NFL this season at 12-4  ATS.  They are dominant at home 7-1.  When the high flying Rams' offense came to town on Dec 9th the Bears D  shut them down in a 15-6  Win.    Hedgie tends to not want to lay points with Rookie QBs and although Tribuski has played well laying close to a TD is why the Hedgie leans towards another teaser.  The Eagles match up fairly well. They are the best OLINE the Bears will face and Foles has been finding Ertz and his  WR  Jefferies regularly.  Bears' star  DB  Eddie Jackson is questionable  so keep a close eye on him leading to kickoff.  Also , Cody Parkey does NOT instill confidence in the Hedgie.  HE's missed PATs this yr and one game missed 3 FGs  off the goal post.   If adversity hits  how will the inexperienced Bears handle it?   Most likely the DEFENSE will come through.

TEASER: BEARS  pickem  and UNDER  48   2 stars 

WILDCARD WEEKEND...Can Hedgie keep it's 10-0 NFL streak alive !!??..late teaser: Seattle +9 & UNDER 50

Really hard to go against the surging Colts right now who have won 9 of the past 10. Both matchups this season were split and decided by 3 points.  The Colts OLINE is finally healthy and all playing together .  Houston's Oline has been a weakness allowing 12 sacks in the two previous meetings.   Houston QB Watson making first playoff start  vs Luck has has played 6.    Prefer Colt's Kicker vs Houston's kicker in what could be another  3 point game.   The intangibles favor Captain Luck and his troops. Even the officiating crew could slightly favor Indy. Bill Vinovich's crew called the least amount of holding calls this season while the Colts were the 3rd most penalized in that area.  Vinovich crews also call a higher percentage of pre snap fouls like encroachment and false start.  Houston was called a LEAGUE HIGH 36 times in that area (as noted by espn). 

   Hedgie prefers to grab teaser points with Colts and over...

TEASER:  Colts +8.5  and OVER  41.5      2 stars 




Dallas / Seattle :   TEASER   SEATTLE +9 & UNDER 50  
    2 stars

HNY ! Hedgie is on a 10-0 NFL Streak and will try and Start 2019 just as hot with a few Bowl Games...

Sam Ehlinger is healthy .  HC Tom Herman is 12-2 ATS past 4 years as an underdog .  Are the Georgia Bulldogs up and ready for this one? Or do they think tehy should be playing in the playoffs?   Texas will be ready...grab the points

TEXAS +12   3 stars


Kentucky +6   3 stars   - will Penn State be motivated ?  it's their 49th bowl game and this one isn't particularly a big one.  Kentucky is playing only it's 18th bowl game in school history and appears to be more motivated.   Hedgie's favorite stat is  Penn State is  0-4  ATS  last 4 games vs  SEC.  Kentucky will keep this game close behind the legs of  Benny Still, Jr

LSU/ Central Fla  UNDER 58.5    1 star   -   LSU  top 2 Dbs  are out and this line  is creeping higher.    BUT LSU is a top 10 defense and takes on a backup QB....UNDER is contrarian play....


TEASER :  MIss St   pickem  & UNDER  46    1 star

TEASER:  Ohio St  pickem  &  OVER  48.5   1 star