On October 14th the Chiefs went to Foxboro as 3.5 point underdogs and lost 43-40. The Chiefs did not have Safety Daniel Sorenston, DE Justin Houston or Eric Berry in that matchup. Also , Mahomes threw 2 INTs as the Chiefs lost the turnover battle. This game should be very different. The Chiefs defense has been playing much better the past 6 weeks. Their stats are a bit skewed as well. They have been leading many games with a potent offense and have given up many meaningless yards late in games. The defense is top 6 in sacks and should harass Brady today. Also , Eric Berry is the QB of the defense . He's a veteran who will be handling the play calls from D Coordinator Bob Sutton. His experience is key in big games like this. Both teams are coming in healthy. However at the WR spot the pats are without Josh Gordon and the Chiefs get Sammy Watkins back. Advantage Chiefs.
There has also been a lot of discussion about the cold weather this week. The freezing cold won't happen as predicted and there will not been much wind. So expect both offenses to have a full playbook at their disposal.
An interesting stat : The past 5 years home teams in title conference games are 10-0.
Hedgie likes the Chiefs today. The lines are varying so if you can get a Chiefs MONEYLINE -150 or better take that and make it 4 stars . IF not take the Chiefs -3 3 stars
Hedgie played : CHIEFS MONEYLINE -145 4 stars
also some PROP PLAYS:
1) Travis Kelce UNDER 84.5 receiving yards - Belechik does an incredible job of taking away the opposing team's best weapon That's Kelce
2) Sony Michael - UNDER 81.5 rushing yards - The Pats are a passing offense. James White shares backfield duties and caught 15 passes last week. Only was Michael gets over 81.5 yards is if Pats are leading and rushing him constantly in the 4th Quarter. Hedgie doesnt see that game script
The Rams and Saints met earlier in the season and both teams have a little different chemistry. The line opened as Rams -2 at New Orleans with the Total set at 57.5. The final score was 45-35 and Drew Brees picked apart a depleted Rams secondary. Today the Rams have Talib back in the secondary to shadow and help defend Wr Michael Thomas. The Rams also have RB CJ Anderson and a health Todd Gurley. If you are HC Sean McVAy you do not want a shootout again and probably do not want to entrust the game to Goff on the road.
The Saints have a strong rushing defense. But against the eagles they lost starting DT Rankins. Hedgie expects the Rams to attack the Saints interior line and use a ton of Gurley with a CJ Anderson combo. Keep Brees off the field and shorten the game a bit against a rowdy Superdome crowd. If you've followed the Saints you'll realize that they now run the ball 50% of the time as well. The first 4 games of the season the Saints threw the ball 65% of the time. That's because RB Ingram was suspended. Now that formula has changed. It's apparent that Brees does not have the big arm strength to make alot of downfield plays. The Saints lean on RBs Kamara and Ingram to win games now.
The Saints are now -3 or -3.5 favorites. So has there really been a 5 point swing in value from these teams? The Rams are a tad healthier and have a bit more talent. Dnamukong Suh is playing well now too.
Hedgie leans towards a tight game with both teams leaning on the run game.
SAINTS/RAMS UNDER 56.5 2 stars
TEASER : RAMS +10 & UNDER 63 1 star