MNF Football

Ironically, The Dolphins traded Safety Minkah Fitpatrick to teh Steelers earlier this year. He's a versatile young player and the Dolphins will get a first round pick in 2020 in return. But The Hedgie only cares about TONIGHT and Hedgie is siding with the 36 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick.  

The Dolphins have purged their roster of talent and stockpiled picks BUT this is still the NFL and the Dolphins will be playing hard on Monday Night Football.   If The Fish started Josh Rosen this line would be higher and the Hedgie would pass. But since HC Flores inserted Ryan back into the lineup vs the Dolphins have shown a lot of fight.   They almost came back to beat the Redskins and then last week gave the Bills a real scare.  After starting the season 0-5 and also vs the spread the Dolphins have now covered 2 straight.  

The Steelers have also struggled. Big Ben is out and there is no way that a 2-4 team led by backup QB Mason Rudolph should be laying 2 Tds .  Grab the +14 . while you can....

DOLPHINS +14  3 stars 

NFL SUNDAY

After a 2-0 start in College Football this Thursday  Hedgie had higher expectations.   Finishing 5-3-1  for the week it's time to focus n the NFL.....


Colts -5 4 stars - Indy is well coached and balanced.  QB Brissett is playing well as evidenced by his . 326 yards and 4TDs  vs Houston last week. The Colts also get star defender Leonard back.   Flacco has not been playing well and Hedgie thinks the curious money coming in on the Broncos is based on them coming off a bye.  That gives us even better value....

Eagles +2 - 2 stars - eagles are a getting healthy and a good team.  Bettors remember last week's poor performance so the line is off.  Bills QB Allen is more of a running QB and should not be able to exploit the eags weakness in the secondary.

Texans -6  3 stars - Raiders traded their best DB to the Texans this week ...they already are struggling mightily on defense .  Texans get healthy at home after a loss last week....Texans by 11

Arizona +13 Game 1 star & Arizona +7  FIRST HALF 3 stars

   Drew Brees gets the start but Kamara sits out.  Brees hasnt played in weeks and should have a little rust.  Hedgie thinks a slow start and without Kamara less explosive plays.  The Cards are playing better and have won 3 straight including 2 on the road....

TEASER:  Seattle -2 & UNDER 57 (6 points) -  Atlanta is reeling.  Matt Ryan is out with an ankle injury and  WR . Sanu was traded to the Patriots. Matt Schaub gets the start and he's not mobile .  Seattle should get the lead and grind out the clock with Carson for the road win.  Hedgie leans . Under and Seattle.  The lines have moved from -6 .to -8 and 51  & going lower....Lock in -2 and 57 now

TEASER : Bucs +8.5 and OVER 39.5 - 2 stars  Bucs coming off a bye and teasing them up across . 3,4,7,8 is preferred here.  Titans start Tannehill and he's a better passer which makes this game a lean over too....

TEASER :  Patriots -4 and under 49 - 1 star ...rain and bad weather....not sure why the money is coming in on the Browns....Freddie Kitchens vs Bill Belechik ??  Pulleeasse.....Pats are best prepared team in the NFL...think the Browns practiced with wet balls all week for today's conditions?  The Pats did....


stay tuned for late day  additions.....

NCAA FRIDAY & SATURDAY - coming off a 2-0 Thursday.....ADDING Alabama OVER 55...and Notre Dame -1

Friday:  

USC / COLORADO -  OVER 64   1 star


Saturday:

Iowa / Northwestern UNDER 37.5 1 star

Army  -10 2 stars

TCU +1 3 stars

stay tuned for a saturday morning add on as the lines move...

Notre Dame -1    3 stars

Alabama/Arkansas OVER 55 3 stars

Thursday Night Football

NCAA:  Houston +13  3 stars at the beginning of the season this would have been Houston -6.  SMU has impressed but it's alot to lay and Houston gets QB Tune back . who is servicable.

NFL: REDSKINS  ONLY if can get +17 -  1 star  - Vikes are without Thielen and the total is at 41.5 . Expect low scoring game and 17 is good value . (only 17 !)

NFL SUNDAY --- ALERTS ....adjustment on 49ers / redskins.....

Giants -3  3 stars

Rams/Falcons OVER 54.5 4 stars

Vikings -2.5  2 star

Eagles +3 (-120) 1 star - make sure you get +3

Colts -1  2 stars

*** 49ers -9.5  is now a PASS ***- makes sure you get 9.5 . its raining in DC.  kyle shanahan will get revenge today. dan synder and the organization treated him very poorly when he was an assistant coach there.

rumors circulating of 49ers arriving late to Fed Ex field due to possible late night out by multiple players....its raining , the total has dropped to 39....this becomes either a total pass or a small play on the home team dog  getting +6 in the first half.....end of day  shanahan is the much better coach and this team should be able to make adjustments ....but perhaps its a sluggish start for the 49ers .. the play now becomes :

REDSKINS +6 .  FIRST HALF  2 stars

NCAA SATURDAY

Virginia -3  1 star

West Va/ Oklahoma OVER 63 2 stars

Penn State / Michigan UNDER 47   4 stars

Washington +2.5 3 stars

Oklahoma State -3.5  1 star....PREFER MONEYLINE   -180  4 stars

Friday Night Football

Syracuse +4    3 stars

NFL SUNDAY ...early bird special

Bucs +2.5  2 stars - Bruce Arians has really been coaching up this team . Jameis Winston has been protecting the ball and playing the QB position much better under 'the QB whisperer' Arians.
Arians is pulling out all the stops with his London travel. He developed a sports science department and has the players using compression socks , taking  melatonin ,and wearing blue glasses when watching video equipment.  Hedgie thinks it helps but whether or not it does the Players believe in it.
 Panthers been playing well lately also.  But QB Kyle Allen has slowly been regressing and has fumble problems (6 fumbles past 2 games)  Hedgie expects  a costly fumble today from Allen as well. 

Seahawks . PICKEM  2 stars. -  Simply a play on the more rested team with the better QB.  Seahawks coming off a Thursday night game with extra rest and prep time while Browns return home on a short week after an abysmal performance.  Russel Wilson playing MVP caliber right now while Baker Mayfield is really struggling to see the field.

Bengals +110.5 1 star - hard to get on the Bengals BUT the trends suggest otherwise.  Ravens are a terrible home favorite as of late going 1-6-1 ATS . past 8.  Division game make double digits a play

Saints +3 .3 stars -  not sure why this line has moved up so much from -1.    Kamara is supposed to play and  Hedgie thinks saints should be favored by 1-2 points.   Great value getting a FG with saints

Rams -3 . 4 stars -  Rams NEED this game.  They have had extra rest and are back at home.  Similiar to the Browns the 49ers  are on a short week and must travel.  They are also down their starting FB Juszczyk who is integral in their offense .   


Cowboys -6.5 (-115) 1 stars - originally Hedgie  was leaning Jets +7.5 . when this line opened.  Sam Darnold returns as starting QB...BUT he'll be rusty and just last week his splean was swollen from Mono and hedgie doesn't think he'll be mentally ready.  Just last week when asked if he'd play he said . "I want to make sure i'm safe out there and not going to die" .   Ummm..... The Cowboys are down starting O linement but have the weapons to win here and will be ready after a bad home loss last week.



Vikings . -3.5 . PASS .   if this line hits -3 again . Hedgie will take Vikes . They play well at home and eagles secondary is still weak.

HEDGIE Friday AND Saturday NCAA - (2 plays FRI . & 5 plays Sat)

Friday:  __________________________

Virginia +2.5 2 stars -  UVA has had a week to prepare and is the better team here .

New Mexico +4 -  1 star - both these teams are not good. playing the home dog desperate to get a win.  



SATURDAY:  ______________________


Texas +10.5  2 stars - great rivalry . past 7 years the underdog has gone 6-1 ATS.  Herman is a great underdog coach going 13-3 ATS  at Texas


Houston +7.5 - 2 stars - Houston plays well at home.  Cinci coming off a big win last friday night where CFL had 4 turnovers.  Now cinci must travel as a road favorite.

Iowa +3.5 - 2 stars - Night game in Iowa is always tough on the visiting opponent.  Hedgie will side with a great defense at home with a veteran QB.  make sure you get +3.5 in what should be a low scoring battle.

Nevada -2.5 - 3 stars - Nevada had a real stinker their last game losing  to Hawaii by 51points !   They have a chance to redeem themselves at home. Expect a max effort here


Kentucky -6.5 - 3 stars - Kentucky coming off  two bad performances but gets  QB Sawyer Smith back. Line should be higher . grab less than a TD asap

Thursday Night NFL

It's REALLY HARD to make money laying double digits in the NFL.   Hedgie thought this last week when the Pats traveled to play the Redskins as 17 point favorites....so Hedgie watched and what was supposed to be a road game turned into a home game for the Pats with more Patriot fans in the stands.   Nonetheless, the Pats did what they do best - take opponents strengths away and Win.  They won 33-7  and covered the 17.  Now this week they return home and are installed as 16.5  favorites once again  to the NY Giants. There's more optimism surrounding the Giants these days with rookie D. Jones at QB.  But this is not the game to feel good about the Giants.  They have a short week, there's poor weather forcast and they will be playing without 4 key starters in Barkley , Gallman, Sheppard , and Engram.   
    Belechik might not even know which best player to take out of the game because there just aren't any.  Bill is  12-0 at home all time vs Rookie QBs and tonight is a rare opportunity to lay the double digits .

Pats -16.5 1 star

Patriots  24 - Giants 6

MNF

Think the Falcons miss  Kyle Shanahan ?  How bout the Redskins ?    The 49ers are 3-0 and averaging 32 points per game thus far.  Coming off a bye week I bet they have a wrinkle or two for the Browns.   Meanwhile, The Browns' offense seems to have finally started clicking ...this all points to :

49ers/Browns  OVER  47.5  3 stars

NFL sunday

Bears -5   3 stars  if line still there .   otherwise . pass

Vikings -5  2 stars

Jags +3.5 2 stars

Steelers +3.5 1 star

Hedgie Saturday

Kansas State -1.5 2 stars

Michigan -3.5 3 stars

Minnesota/Illinois OVER 56 4 stars

Air Force / Navy OVER 46 2 stars

Marshall/ Midd Tenn St OVER 53 2 stars

Iowa State -3 (-120)  3 stars

Tulane / Army UNDER 43.5 1 star

LSU/ Utah State UNDER 73.5  1 star

Thursday . Hedgie - PASSING

but will have a full college slate saturday