Minnesota can win it's first Big Ten West Title today. They are 6-0 at home and this game has much the same feel as when Penn State came into town. PJ Fleck is a great motivator and we've seen how talented Minnesota as the season has worn on. Minnesota should win this game outright but Hedgie like the generous +3 points vegas has installed the game as. Actually for added confidence Hedgie is buying an extra 1/2 point as some vegas spots have Minnesota +3 (even)...
MINNESOTA +3.5 (-125 ) 3 stars
Auburn +3.5 1 star - Auburn has played a tougher schedule is at home and Bama is without is QB Tua
TEASER 7 points (-120) . AUBURN +10.5 & . UNDER 56.5 - 3 stars
leaning under in general as well. Really like these numbers with a teaser
ARMY +3 2 stars
Va Tech comes in hot and has won 15 consecutive meetings in this rivalry. Vegas has adjusted the line as so. But this game is in Charlottesville where UVA is 6-0 at home Today the Cavaliers finally get their WIN ....
UVA +2.5 2 stars
12:30 pm Bears -6 @ Lions
This Game originally opened as a pickem BUT when news broke of backup QB Jeff Driskel having a pulled hamstring the money immediately came in on the Bears. Just this month the Bears hosted the Lions and Won 20-13 with Driskel as the Lions QB. What's interesting is that the Total points opened at 37.5 and is still hovering around that number. The Lions announced last night that Driskel will be out and their 3rd string QB David Blough will start. Blough has never taken a snap in the NFL. He played for Purdue and is an undrafted rookie. Hedgie expects a very bland gamescript. The Bears have a good defense and have learned NOT to trust QB Mitch Tribusky with the game. So this game should be very similiar to last game's script. The Lions tend to give up yardage on the ground so expect a big dose of RB David Montgomery. With this game on the big stage expect Khalil Mack to have a big game. The Lions are aware that Mack can singlehandley ruin a game so they'll also turn to RB Bo Scarboorough and try and play the field position game. With the line moving all the way from pickem to -6 and perhaps some small value on the home dog the Hedgie prefers ......
Bears/Lions UNDER 37.5 4 stars
4:30pm Bills +6.5 @ Cowboys This game means the most today with playoff implications. Jerry Jones blasted his coaches in the media this week after a loss to he Patriots . The Bills are 8-3 and appear to be a tough nosed team . However , their wins have all been vs weak teams. The same aplies to the Cowboys. We have two Paper Tiers playing today. The short week benefits the home team and the one weakness the Cowboys can exploit is the Bills 26th ranked run defense. Hedgie expects a large dose of ZEKE Elliot today . The Bills offense is not dynamic and QB Josh Allen also runs quite a bit. Hedgie sees a clock churning game which spells for ...
Bills/Cowboys UNDER 47 - 2 stars
8:30pm Saints -6.5 @ Falcons Just 3 weeks ago the Falcons went into New Orleans and stunned the Saints who were double digit favorites. The Saints are playing for NFC playoff positioning and have an opportunity for revenge. The Falcons are too banged up these days. Julio Jones has a sore ankle. TE . Austin Hooper is out. RB Ito Smith s out . Mohammed Sanu was traded to the Patrios last month and QB Matt Ryan is not 100% himself either. The Falcons do not have a good record at home and Hedgie suspects alot of fans will be eating their 'dirty birds ' at home today. Saints win by double digits here...
SAINTS -6.5 (-120) 3 stars
SPECIAL THANKSGIVING TEN POINT THREE TEAM TURKEY TEASER :
Take 10 points and move the Lions Bears game from 37 to 47..then use 10 points to take both the afternoon favorites from -6.5 to +3.5.....
Lions/Bears UNDER 47 ; Cowboys +3.5 ; Saints +3.5 3 stars
(JOSH is currently the BEST ALLEN QB)
Bills -3.5 4 stars . The Battle of the QB Allens. Josh played his best game of the year last week . while Brandon makes a road start outdoors vs a tough Buffalo D...
Titans -3 (-125) - 3 stars - Hedgie bought a half point here down to -3. If you only get -3.5 its still a 2 star play. Love Coach Vrabel off a bye at home. Last yr the Titans whooped Dallas 28-14 in Dallas off their Bye. Nick Foles is back but he sure looked rusty last week. Maybe not such an upgrade....
Falcons -3 - 3 stars - this game opened Falcons -4.5. Some big early money game in on the Bucs. Some call this 'smart money' just because it was bet early in the week. Hedgie doesn't think it's such smart money. Just like last week some 'smart' money bet the Redskins....The Falcons are rejuvenated after their bye week and have beaten their division foes Saints and Panthers back to back ...next up they take down the Bucs.....
Jets +3 - 2 stars . The Jets are a different team as of late. The poor perception of this team comes from the early season days of Falk at QB and Darnold out with Mono. Now . Darnold is playing well and as mentioned last week the Jets D is the #1 team vs the run. Gruden has done a great job with the Raiders but it's a tough situation traveling west coast to east and an early start time. Raiders secondary is still banged up. Jets win
Teaser ADD : Eagles +8 . & UNDER51.5 1 star
alot of injuries . for the late games...stay tuned for an addon . around 345pm
Tulane +6 1 star - Tulane is 5-0 at homes . SU and vs Spread ! A win at home would give them their first undefeated season at home since 1998. play the more motivated home dog
Southern Miss -3.5 2 stars - much like tulane So Miss has been great at home
Boston College +21.5 3 stars - line a bit inflated with ND beating up on Navy. BC comes in off a bye with a strong run game
LSU/ Arkansas OVER 69 2 stars - Arkansas Defense is horrible and expect LSU and Joe Burrow to have their Offense humming . A good time to pad some Heisman contender stats .
Va Tech -3.5 2 stars - Hokies been playing better as of late and control their own destiny in conference. At home in rainy conditions favors the Hokies
West Va +6 - 2 stars - Okl St loses is starting QB last week and a few weeks ago lost star WR Wallace. So West Va catches a break for its last home game. Grab the live home dog...
Tulsa -3 3 stars - Houston is a bit banged up and Tulsa is fresh off a bye at home....
Two Divisional Teams on a short week that are slightly banged up....The Coaching Edge goes to the Colts but they lost RB Mack to a hand injury and TY Hilton is still less than 100% and may or may not go. The Situation favors the home team Texans on a short week and Watson has played well at home so should bounce back after last week. Hedgie leans under and leans home team without much conviction......but for Action's sake a 1 star teaser works....
TEASER : Texans +3 and UNDER 53 (6.5 points -120) 1 star
Tonight's game is being played in Mexico City at 7500 feet altitude. This line opened up at Chiefs -3.5 and Total 52.5 ALL the money is in on the Chiefs which makes sense at first glance . Mahomes is back for his 2nd straight game and the Chargers lost vs the Raiders last game out as 1 point favorites so the public will be reluctant to back them.
The Chargers practiced all week in Denver to adjust to the high altitude which not many are talking about. This is a divisional game and although the Chargers are without their two starting tacklers the Chiefs are without their two best pass rushers. Melvin Gordon is hitting his stride and the Chiefs have really struggled stopping the run. With this line being bet all the way up to -5.5 and -6 on the Chiefs the Hedgie sees really good value in backing the Chargers here at +6. Phillip Rivers is 15-5-1 ATS in primetime games
CHARGERS +6 2 stars
Two weeks ago the Pats were embarrassed on National TV by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They've had a BYE week to stew on it and Hedgie imagines the scowl on Belechik's face is now permanent. The record for Belechik and Brady off a bye is a well known trend so Hedgie was surprised to see Vegas only post Pats -3.5.
This line is more about the perception of the Eagles. They are also coming off as bye and the last time these two teams met the Eagles were holding up the Lombardi Trophy. The 2019 Eagles are NOT THE SAME TEAM. Carson Wentz is having a mediocre year. The Eagles skilled players are banged up on . The Eags only true deep threat in Desean Jackson is done for the year with an abdominal injury. Sproles was just put on IR . Jordan Howard is dealing with a stringer. SO the Eags signed Jay Ajai and Jordan Matthew to fill plug the holes. The Eagles secondary on defense has also struggled all year long.
Ok fine, The Eagles also had a bye .week. Maybe they rested and healed a bit but noone came off the IR. They now must face teh #1 Defense in the NFL stewing off a loss with mastermind Belechik scheming up ways to slow down an average offense with very little speed.
Sprinkle in Tom Brady with an extra week with new WR weapon Sanu and perhaps a lil revenge on the mind and you have a formula for a potential blowout ....
PATS -3.5 5 stars ...this line is creeping up now that the betting public is tuning in . At -4 its still a 5 star. Shop and grab the best line you can sooner than later !
Jets +2 - 3 stars - The Redskins are going with Haskins at QB the rest of the season. Everyone knows He's not ready for the speed of the NFL as a QB but this s how the Redskins will learn what they have in another lost season for Redskins fans. The Skins are coming off a bye week so Vegas installed them as home favorites. Hedgie doesn't think one extra week to prepare is going to help Haskins here. The Redskins under interim coach Callahan is a run based team. Thats a smart move and makes sense. That protects Haskin's deficiencies and they've had some success. HOWEVER the JETS strength is their run defense . They are the NUMBER ONE run stopping unit in the NFL. The Jets are still trying. Sam Darnold has had an up and down year coming off Mono but is the better QB here. Jets should be favored
Dallas/ Detroit UNDER 47 - 2 stars - Stafford is a scratch again with broken bones in his back. The Lions have lost 5 of their last 6 and start their backup QB. The cowboys typically lay well on the road (except vs the Jets) . A good Oline and strong running game is a good recipe for road success and that just what the Cowboys have. Hedgie sees a big day from Zeke. This line jumped form Dal -3.5 . to Dal -7 but the total stayed still. The value here is on the UNDER
Saints/Bucs OVER 49.5 . - 4 stars - The Saints will ounce back after a poor home erformance last week. They have Kamara and TE Cook back in the lineup. Bucs have gone OVER .their last 7 straight. Enough said...
Texans/Ravens OVER 51.5 - 2 stars - two elite QBs vs two average defenses. Texans no longer have Clowney (traded to Seahawks) and JJ WATTS is on IR. Texans have been good on the road and have had a bye to prepare. Lamar Jackson gets all the hype but Watson has been playing at a pro bowl level too. This game should be an entertaining shootout....
Last week The Hedgie was flabbergasted as he watched the Bills blow a lead to the Browns and miss a FG while at the same time the Chiefs up 5 blew two FGs and the game......
It happens...and this week the computers have been reprogrammed and the picks are in :
Texas Tech +3 3 Stars - TCU travels to this one after a 3 OT loss to Baylor and it will be hard for them to get up for this one. The past two weeks they've had demoralizing losses....Texas Tech should win outright as a home dog
Iowa -3 - 2 stars - good spot to fade Minnesota after such an emotional home vs last week. They jumped 9 spots in the ratings polls and now must face a tough opponent in Iowa on the road. Maybe not such a letdown vs a poor foe but Iowa is a good team and will be ready ....
Louisville -3.5 - 3 stars - last week Hedgie pushed the Louisville Button and it didn't work. But this week it will vs a banged up NC State team dealing with multiple injuries. Louisville can still make a bowl game and has revenge after wolfpack crushed them last yr 52-10
Kansas/ Oklahoma State OVER 68.5 3 stars - both teams go as their offenses go. Both come off a bye and will be rested and prepared. This game is already ticking up from 67.5 . to 68.5 . so play it now....
and Finally an exotic 3 team teaser: How about 3 heavy favorites who have something to still play for ?
Alabama -18 over Miss St - Bama needs to make a statement to get back in the top 4 and will have no shame running this score up....minus 10 makes Bama -8
Oregon -27 vs Arizona - off a bye and rested the Ducks can run the table and maybe get into the playoffs...take -27 down to -17
Michigan -13.5 vs Mich state - Harbaugh can make a statement here beating up on instate rival and would have no problem running it up at home vs a Spartans team that's having a down year...
THREE TEAM TEASER 1 star - Bama -8 / Oregon -17 / Michigan -3.5
FIRST HALF - INDIANA +7.5 - 2 stars - how in the world will Penn State be up for this game? Their title hopes were just dashed in Minnesota last week and now they are double digit favorites to a solid Hoosier team. Hedgie suspects maybe they get their act together at halftime but this is a hangover spot for the nittany lions and Indiana will punch them in the mouth to start the game..
stay tuned as Hedgie makes sure all the sunday buttons are working for it's FIRST FIVE STAR OF THE SEASON...
Bills +3 3 stars - Bills are 3-0 on the road vs spread. Baker cooks up more turnovers than Tds (12 vs 6) Bills win outright
Bucs/Cards OVER 52 4 stars - Bucs are . 6-2 . OVER this yr . Arians 'the QB whisperer' has .Winston playing well. Cards offense playing better as season unfolds
Packers/Panthers OVER 48 1 star - bounce back for Rogers & Co at home...Panthers on a 4-0 over streak. Hedgie loves Norv Turner as O-coordinator coaching up Kyle Allen ...has Cam seen his last game in a Panthers uni ? Kyle Allen playing well.....Hedgie thinks so
Bengals +10.5 2 stars - teams this year AFTER THE PATS are 1-8 vs the spread. Ravens will be hard pressed to bring their A game for the listless Bengals. Bengals get a new starting QB which usually translates to a boost of energy.
Teaser: Chiefs pickem & OVER 42 1 star
stay tuned for later play....leaning vikes and under on the night game....waiting for better prices.
leaning Colts and under teaser.....interesting . that money is in on the rams today...keeping an eye there and will have a play..road favorite off a bye are 69% vs spread...but hedgie doesn't love rams Oline..heavy action on this late game . so stay tuned for a teaser.....
Btw, Hedgie knows he needs to step it up...if today doesn't right the ship perhaps Hedgie needs a bye week....
Illinois +14.5 4 stars - Illinois has won 3 straight and Lovie Smith has this team feeling confident. On the other hand Michigan State is a disaster. Can they even Score 14 points today? The weather is also a factor. Take the 2 touchdown gift !
Penn St / Minnesota UNDER 48 - 4 stars
Louisville +7 - 2 stars - Miami is historically poor vs the spread the WEEK AFTER a game vs their in state rival Florida State. 5-16 ATS the past 21 games . Take the points
Cal /washington St UNDER51.5 2 stars
Bama /LSU - the biggest game of the day by far. Most money is in on LSU . the Line his bama -7 and has been bet down to Bama -5.5 in many spots. How often do you get a Saban coached team at home off a bye for less than 6 points !?? BAMA -5.5 . 2 stars
Any idea who Phillip Rivers is talking to here ? I didn't think so......
Well, it's the New Offensive Coordinator , Shane Steichen. He replaced Ken Whisenhunt last week after the Chargers let Ken go. The move seems to have sparked this Chargers offense. Last week they looked great against the Packers and Hedgie doesn't want to put too much into one game but these Chargers were in the playoffs last year and Phillip Rivers historically likes to get it going in November as they are 8-1 in November last 9 games.
The Raiders got a nice win last week vs the Lions which gives us a nice price to take the Chargers here...
LA CHARGERS -1 3 stars
Lions +3 2 stars
Titans +3.5 2 stars
Packers -3 (-120) 2 stars
TEASERS:
Jets +3 & UNDER 48 1 star
Eagles +2 & UNDER 48 1 star
Bills -4.5 & UNDER 43.5 2 stars
early addition:
TEASER :
TEXANS +7 and UNDER 52.5 1 star
this line has gone from texans -1 to Texans +1 . Texans are without JJ WATT which has made the line move BUT the Texans should be able to establish the run vs the Jags. When these teams played earlier this season the Texans won 13-12. QB Watson was testing a visor after being kicked in the eye last week. His vision is fine and he'll be going without the visor at kickoff. Expect a tough lower scoring game ..value clearly on teasing Texans and under
stay tuned for late add on....
Troy -1 1 star Troy has a solid defense . They are 8-2 past 10 games coming off a loss and Coastal Carolina is 0-6 ATS vs FBS teams at home
Pitt -7 1 star - Pitt lost a tough game to Miami last week . Thats bad news for GA TECH who is still transitioning to a new offense and is 1-9 ATS their past 10 games. Pitt defense is very good
Syracuse -3 1 star - varying opinions on these teams. But hedgie will take Cuse at home who's hungry for their first ACC win
Akron/Bowling Green OVER 49.5 1 star - Akron gets . QB Kato Nelson back from a 2 game suspension and this line should go higher tomorrow when that becomes more clear to bettors
Oregon/USC UNDER 62.5 2 stars - Oregon is coming off 2 high scoring games vs pass happy teams . ThereforeVegas adjusted this line higher than it should be .
UAB +14 vs Tennessee - 3 stars This line opened Tennesee -12.5 . Hedgie believes most bettors are making a blind play on the SEC . vs lesser opponents. BUT looking deeper . UAB has a hot QB n Tyler Johnson lately and they have a statistically good defense. Tennessee could be in a letdown spot after a big upset of South Carolina last week and have only covered the vegas spread in 6 of their past 21 home games. grab this line anywhere above +13 . Hedgie got +14 (-115)
UAB +14 3 stars
Florida +7 4 stars - this line has been all over the map this week. It opened at -6.5 the dipped to -4 and is climbing back up again. Florida is healthy and getting star WR Kadarius Toney back. Georgia is having a down year for them and the public has not adjusted for that so vegas keeps the line inflated.
...
Saturday am ADDS:
Memphis -5.5 2 stars - GAMEDAY at MEMPHIS a lot of pressure n SMU who seem to be hanging on to their unblemished record.
ND State/ WF - UNDER 60.5 2 stars - lean . NC st with the points (+7.5)...but prefer UNDER better as Wolfpack has been under 9 of their last 11 as a dog.
Kansas State -4.5 2 stars - both teams off huge wins and the play here is that K state will have a letdown. Line opened at -6 so we're getting good value. Kansas Will NOT SNEAK UP on the wildcats. K state simply better...
Hawaii -2 1 star
