Lions +3.5 1 star
JETS +11 1 star
WFT/Broncos OVER 44 3 stars
Sunday, October 31, 2021
Friday, October 29, 2021
Hedgie Saturday
Clemson has NOT COVERED a spread all year. There were high expectations. So this weekend the Florida State Seminoles come to town. If you had looked to bet this game week 1 the 'look ahead line ' was Clemson -27. This week the line opened Clemson -10 and noone has faith in this team. Fl State has played decently lately and the betting public prefers taking the points . The Hedgie thinks this line swing is just too much. Clemson's defense will shit the Noles down. This line is anywhere from 8.5 - 9.5 right now
CLEMSON -8.5 2 stars
Iowa/ Wisconsin - Lowest Total on the board at 36. Vegas and most expect this game to be very low scoring. Hedgie is not sure why Iowa is getting +3 let alone +3.5. Great Value on Iowa
IOWA +3.5 1 star
Notre Dame -3.5 1 star
Wednesday, October 27, 2021
HEDGIE HAS A 4 STAR TEASER !
Sunday evening Joe Barry and Davante Adams tested positive for Covid. Then a day later WR Allen Lazard tested positive. The problem here is that the Packers have a short week and must travel to play the undefeated Arizona cardinals Thursday Night . Barry is the D Coordinator and will miss the game. Adams has a very slight chance to play unless he tests negative twice in 2 consecutive days. And Lazard is OUT.
That leaves QB Rogers with limited offensive weapons . WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling has been on the IR and may return from his hamstring injury . However, rushing back from a hamstring injury does not inspire confidence in the DEEP BALL.
So how in the world will the Packers compete ? It seems fairly common sense that the proper game plan would be to lean on the best offensive weapons like RBs Jones and Dillon and mix in some short passes to TE Tonyan and slot receiver Cobb.
The only way the Packers stay close Thursday night is to sustain some longer drives and keep the Cards offense off the field as much as possible.
That would equate to a slightly lower scoring game than normal. This line last week was Cardinals -2 and 51 Total. It has since shot up to Cards -6.5 and 51 Total. Hedgie's a tad surprised the Total hasn't moved down much yet and thinks it will. Right now Hedgie sees some great value on teasing the total up to 57 and going UNDER while teasing the Cards down from -6.5 to -0.5. Even if the Cards blow out the Packers the Total is likely to stay Under as well. Most teams when ahead by a lot run the clock out in the 4th Q and don't want to risk injury . A good example of that was last week BUCS 38 Bears 3 .
So the play is :
TEASER CARDS -0.5 and UNDER 57 4 STARS
Sunday, October 24, 2021
Saturday, October 23, 2021
Thursday, October 21, 2021
Thursday Night Hedgie
Wait, is that Minnesota Vikings attire ??? Yes ! In 2017 Kevin Stefanski was the Offensive coordinator for the Vikings . The Vikings went 13-3 and Case Kennum led the offense on a magical ride. Fast Forward to today...Stafanski is the Browns Head Coach who brought in Keenum as a free agent to the Browns. Keenum provided a safety blanket for Stefanski if Baker Mayfield got hurt or didn't work out. Stefanski remarked about Keenum :
"Case is somebody that’s seen it all and been through it all in his time as an NFL quarterback,” Stefanski said. “The experiences he brings can be great for our team as a whole. He knows this system having played in it under coach (Gary) Kubiak when he broke into the league in Houston, and obviously I have experience coaching him with the Vikings.
“I’m really excited about bringing Case the person into this group. He’s the son of a football coach, he’s a grinder, he’s a gym rat, so I think he’ll fit perfectly into the mentality we’re trying to build.”
Last week in the look ahead line The Browns were -6 and the total was at 44. Both teams are very banged up and now Baker Mayfield has been ruled out as well as Browns starting RBs Chubb and Hunt. The weather forecast is now also for wind and possibly ran. . So the current line sits at Browns -1.5 and 40.
Odell Beckham is also out for the Browns but the Browns get back Jarvis Landry at WR.
The Money is clearly streaming in on the Broncos . But the Broncos are also banged up . Teddy Bridgewater gets the start but has a gimpy foot and the Broncos 2 starting inside LBs are out on defense. Both teams sit at 3-3 but a deeper look makes the Hedgie wonder if the Broncos are a fraud. The opened the season 3-0 and garnered a lot of media attention however those 3 wins were vs the Giants , Jets and Jags.
The Public remembers this past sunday watching the Browns get blown out at home in an embarrassing loss and now sees Baker is out....
The Hedgie believes in the Stefanski / Kennum duo and thinks this is the perfect spot for a scrappy gym rat at QB to get a home win in the wind and rain on a short week !
When asked if he was Ready for tonight Case said. "I feel very ready. I've been ready . You don't have to get ready if you stay ready , and i've been ready since I got here "
When asked about tonight's game The Hedgie said "I'm ready to lay some cash on Case"
BROWNS -1 4 Stars
Sunday, October 17, 2021
NFL HEDGIE SUNDAY
Browns -3 (-115) 3 stars
Chargers +3 (-115) 3 stars
Teaser: Rams -1 & Panthers +8.5 2 stars
Saturday, October 16, 2021
Hedgie Saturday
12pm. ET : Texas / Oklahoma State UNDER 61 3 stars
Where will Texas' heads be after such a heartbreaking loss last week ? Early kickoff today and Oklahoma State has a strong Defense. Okl State prefers ball control and it's only chance to win is with defense and ball control. So Hedgie really likes the UNDER here . The Texas shootout last week has this line slightly inflated based n last week's scoring.
12pm ET : MISSOURI. +11.5 2 stars (hosting Texas A&M)
Texas A&M off a huge win over Bama last week. Gigantic letdown spot . Missouri has not been good this season but Hedgie will take the Tigers as a double digit home dog.
stay tuned for a late play as manhy lines will be moving today...Hedgie leaning Miss St getting more than 17....
Sunday, October 10, 2021
Saturday, October 9, 2021
Hedgie NCAAF
Traveling today so no commentary....
Illinois +11.5 3 stars
Mississippi -5 2 stars
Virginia Tech pickem 2 stars
Sunday, October 3, 2021
NFL WEEK 4. - first 4 star play of the Season
So far this NFL season has provided somer nice Teaser plays. The Hedgie rarely teases in college football but in the NFL where there are less games and tighter pricing on numbers like 3,4,6,7 The Hedgie likes to take advantage when the opportunity presents itself.
Thursday's game was spot on. The Bengals are the better team at home and had a slow start. But in the end they won by 3 and covered the TEASER LINE of -1.5. More than 80% of the betting tickets were on the Bengals -7.5 . Vegas won that one.
SO Today there are a lot of teaser plays still open from thursday ...but there's another teaser that jumps out ...
Saints vs NY Giants 1PM - The Saints are playing there FIRST TRUE HOME GAME today a full month after Hurricane IDA ripped through there city. The fans will be crazed as usual and the energy will be incredibly high for the home town team and fans. The NY Giants have historically covered well as road dogs with Daniel Jones at the helm. However, this is too tall a task. Top WRs Sheppard and Slayton are both out and on defense LB Martinez is as well. Too tall an order and a bad spot.
If you want to bet Saints -7 go for it 1 STAR . If you want to lay -4. on Saints First half go for that too. Hedgie is going to put most chips today on a teaser at home with another 1PM team...
Eagles vs Chiefs 1PM - The Eagles return home after two tough losses on the road. The Chiefs come to town only 1-2 and have been burning their backers with a 2-14 ATS run the past 16 games dating back to last year. However, this feels like the right spot to back the Chiefs . They are by far the better team led by Mahomes. Andy Reid returns to philly and is the superior coach vs the Eagles' first time HC Nick Siranni. The Eags are the most penalized team in the NFL right now and appear somewhat disorganized. We are catching god line value here as the Eagles crushed teh Falcons in Atlanta week 1 and have now shown their true colors. Jalen Hurts struggles throwing the ball downfield and that was evident last week vs Dallas. So fi you feel good about laying the Cheifs -6.5 today go for it. But with their recent spread covering struggles the Hedgie doesn't want to leave anything to chance on a back door cover as the Chiefs defense is not very good. STrong feeling the Chiefs come away with a WIN no matter what .
So the Play is :
TEASER SAINTS -1 & CHIEFS -0.5 4 STARS
Speaking of the Eagles crushing the Falcons week 1 , the Falcons also have a new coach and Matt Ryan has looked like a statue in the pocket. Washington has been highly criticized for it's poor defense and this may just be the spot for a team with talent to play had and get healthy
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM -1 2 STARS
Friday, October 1, 2021
HEDGIE's Week 5 NCAA Football Card
Jack Campbell leads one of the best defenses in the country tonight @ the 4-0 Maryland Terps who are also 3-1 ATS. Iowa's offense has struggled and is generally slower tempo. The current hype on the Terps is on QB Tagovoiloa. But the Terps boast a pretty good defense too. Iowa is 4-0 UNDER this season. So The Hedgie will ride that trend into Friday night :
FRIDAY 8:00PM ET : IOWA / MD UNDER 47.5 1 STAR
SATURDAY 7PM ET : OKL ST -3.5 2 STARS
SATURDAY NOON ET : MISSOURI -2.5 3 STARS
SATURDAY 10:30PM ET : UCLA/ ARIZONA ST OVER 56 2 STARS
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