Sunday, November 7, 2021

NFL Hedgie SUNDAY


 


Bengals  / Browns UNDER 47.5 1 star 

   It's November and this time of year the weather is colder and these divisional foes know each other well.  The Browns have Chubb back and need to establish the run to win this game in what should be a slower paced game.


Chargers -1 @  Eags  2 stars 

    This line opened Chargers -3 and  bettors took  Eags money immediately.   The only explanation here would be recency bias as fans recently watched the Eags dominate the pathetic Lions while the Pats stumped QB Herbert .   Herbert also has a bruise thumb but has said is fine.  There's also a handicapping angle to fade West coast teams that travel east and play early .  The Chargers are banged up in the secondary but can Hurts exploit that ?   The Hedgie believes the Chargers are just the superior team and needs a win .  Great value on the Bolts to basically just win . 


Broncos +10 @ Cowboys  2 stars 

    The Cowboys are the only undefeated team vs the spread this year at 7-0. The Catch here is that there is now a premium on the spread. The early lookahead line had the boys -6 a few weeks ago. Dak is back and the bettors will be on the Cowboys .  The Broncos also traded star DE Von Miller to the Rams for future draft picks so the perception is that the Broncos are mailing it in .  However , these are professionals and the Broncos will be fighting for their jobs still.  QB Teddy Bridgewater's knickname is 'Teddy Covers'.  He's a covering machine and with WR Jerry Jeudy back thinks the Broncos will keep this game close.


Teaser : Texans +11.5 & OVER 40.5 1 star 

     The Dolphins are only 2-5 ATS and should not be laying anywhere near a TD in this game. Their home field advantage is non existent . The main reason for this play is that Tyrod Taylor is back at QB for the Texans and he's a major upgrade at the most important position.  Both defenses are poor so over 40.5 points should be easy.


Ravens (-270) / Saints (-265)  MONEYLINE Parlay  1 star 

      This is essentially the same as a 2 team 6 point teaser ( ravens -6 & saints -6) .  But the payoff is better on the moneyline.  A teaser is -120 to win 100. The  ML Parlay here is -120 to win 106 .  Every bit counts when you're betting the NFL.  

      The plays here are based on Ravens coming off a bye week Harbaugh is a great coach off a bye and the Vikings will be missing star DE D. Hunter.

      The Saints will start Trevor Simien and also get back Taysom Hill.  The Falcons are just not a very good team and the Saints defense is playing well and are at home.