Oh boy oh boy ... there’s a new Leugue in town ...

The Hedgie was +53 STAR WEIGHTED this year....Very fitting heading into SUPER BOWL 53

Are the Rams underrated?   On paper most pro handicappers think the Rams are better on paper.  The aura of Brady/ Belichik has all the money in on the Pats.  The recent public perception is that the Rams are a bit lucky to get in the show while the Pats have the feel of destiny and magic.  So  the recent perception is where the money flows and this gives gamblers  value.

Sean McVay is a creative aggressive coach and Hedgie thinks will do just fine here on the big stage. Look at Doug Pederson of the Eagles last year.  His aggressive playcalling led the Eags to a victory.  And McVay has a similiar style.  The Rams under McVay are 8-0 against  AFC opponents btw.  A key factor that not many are talking about is  D Coordinator  Wade Phillips.  He's been around the block and was very instrumental in helping Denver get the SB 50 .  The Broncos defeated the Pats at home that year  20-18 and Wade Phillips devised a great gameplan to slow Brady down.  Both teams are healthy and the Hedgie sees  Phillips doing a bit of the same this game.   Aaron Donald and Suh are incredibly disruptive up the middle. Also think back to how the Giants won vs the Pats in another  past SB :  pressure up the middle.

Hedgie initially was leaning under 57.5  in this game.  An initial lean but upon further review this game sets p as fairly high scoring.  Both teams identities are their Offenses. and Both teams will get their points.  This game is being played indoors in a dome where their will be perfect conditions.  

  The line opened  Pats -1 and 57.5.   It's now   Pats -2.5 and 56.  The value here  for the Hedgie is on a teaser.  

TEASER: RAMS  +9 and OVER 50   3 stars

This should be an entertaining game. Hedgie also likes to finish the season with some PROP PLAYS:

FIRST TD SCORED :   Notice in the photo two weapons the Rams have that are rarely mentioned.  Belichik likes to take away the opponents best weapons  which are  Gurley , Cooks , Woods.  This leaves room for Josh Reynolds or Tyler Higbee  to score first TD.  Pats are traditionally slow starters  so  Hedgie thinks  Rams score first and these have have tremendous value:

REYNOLDS  16/1

HIGBEE 33/1

JAMES WHITE  OVER  5.5  RECEPTIONS  (-150)

JAMES WHITE OVER  3.5  RUSHES  (-130)

JAMES WHITE OVER 51.5  Receiving Yards  (-150)

GRONK over 52.5  Receiving Yards (-180)

Gurley OVER  62.5 yards  

CJ Anderson OVER  10.5  attempts 

CJ Anderson over  41.5 yards rushing 

The Pats have limited weapons and White and Gronk should have big games regardless of the outcome.  Figure  Rams limit Edelman and Pats limit Cooks best they can. Other players  will shine.

Also, note the Pats have been slow starters.  If this game is in the 10 point range  end of first quarter the Hedgie will utilize an INGAME PLAY  OVER  somehwre in the high 40s.  Stay tuned on The Hedgie on Instagram to follow ingame action.

Good Luck and stay tunes  for  March Madness !

NFL CONFERENCE TITLES

On October 14th  the Chiefs went to Foxboro  as  3.5 point underdogs  and lost  43-40.   The Chiefs did not have  Safety Daniel Sorenston,  DE Justin Houston or  Eric Berry in that matchup.  Also , Mahomes threw 2 INTs as the Chiefs lost the turnover battle.  This game should be very different.  The Chiefs defense has been playing much better the past 6 weeks.  Their stats are a bit skewed as well.  They have been leading many games with a potent offense and have given up many meaningless yards late in games.  The defense is top 6  in sacks and should harass Brady today.  Also , Eric Berry is the QB of the defense . He's a veteran who will be handling the play calls from D Coordinator Bob Sutton.  His experience is key in big games like this.  Both teams are coming in healthy.  However  at the WR  spot  the pats are without Josh Gordon and the Chiefs get Sammy Watkins back.   Advantage Chiefs.
    There has also been a lot of discussion about the cold weather this week.  The freezing cold won't happen as predicted and there will not been much wind.  So expect both offenses to have a full playbook at their disposal.   
    An interesting stat :  The past 5 years home teams in title conference games are 10-0.

 Hedgie likes the Chiefs today.  The lines are varying  so if you can get a Chiefs MONEYLINE  -150 or better  take that  and make it 4 stars .  IF not  take the Chiefs -3   3 stars

Hedgie played  :    CHIEFS  MONEYLINE  -145    4 stars 

also some PROP PLAYS: 

1)  Travis Kelce UNDER 84.5  receiving yards   -  Belechik does an incredible job of taking away the opposing team's best weapon  That's Kelce

2)  Sony Michael -   UNDER 81.5  rushing yards  -   The Pats are a passing offense.  James White shares  backfield duties and caught 15 passes last week.   Only was Michael gets over  81.5 yards is if Pats are leading and rushing him constantly in the 4th Quarter. Hedgie doesnt see that game script

The Rams and Saints met earlier in the season and both teams have a little different chemistry.  The line opened as Rams -2  at New Orleans with the Total set at 57.5.   The final score was 45-35 and Drew Brees picked apart a depleted Rams secondary.   Today  the Rams have  Talib back in the secondary  to shadow and help defend Wr Michael Thomas.  The Rams also have RB CJ Anderson and a health Todd Gurley.  If you are HC Sean McVAy  you do not want a shootout again and probably do not want to entrust the game  to Goff on the road. 

The Saints have a strong rushing defense.  But against the eagles they lost starting DT   Rankins.    Hedgie  expects the Rams to attack the Saints interior line and use a ton of Gurley with a CJ Anderson combo. Keep Brees off the field and shorten the game a bit against a rowdy Superdome crowd.   If you've followed the Saints you'll realize that they now run the ball 50% of the time as well.  The first 4 games of the season the  Saints threw the ball 65% of the time.  That's because RB Ingram was suspended. Now that formula has changed.   It's apparent that Brees does not have the big arm strength to make alot of downfield plays. The Saints  lean on  RBs  Kamara and Ingram to win games now.   

The Saints are now  -3  or -3.5  favorites.  So has there really been a 5 point swing in value from these teams?  The Rams are a tad healthier and have a bit more talent.  Dnamukong Suh is playing well now too.

Hedgie leans towards a tight game with both teams leaning on the run game.

SAINTS/RAMS  UNDER 56.5  2 stars

TEASER : RAMS +10 & UNDER 63  1 star

NFL PLAYOFF SUNDAY

Last week in he Wildcard round the Underdogs did well.  Yesterday the Hedgie was on that trend as it appeared strong running games would travel well and the matchups appeared to favor the stronger running teams in the trenches.
   THAT TREND REVERSED and the HEDGIE WILL ADJUST :

It was evident yesterday that the home teams  who were rested had an advantage.  That should continue today.    The Chargers have been  outstanding going 9-0  away from LA.  But they are now n their 3rd straight road game and flying west to east for a 1pm game is not ideal.  What the Hedgie looks at even more is the physical toll it takes  on teams when playing the #1  physical defenses in the NFL.  The Ravens are just that .   Historically teams have not fared well the following week against the spread after playing the Ravens.  Last week was a physical game as expected and the Chargers must be tired.  Melvin Gordon sustained a sprain to his left knee . His right knee was just healing from injury.   A healthy Melvin Gordon would be a huge asset today.  Now the Chargers may have to lean more on  Phillip Rivers who has been  amazing. HOWEVER ,  his last 5 games  he has been  just ok.    His last 5 games Rivers has thrown  4 TDs  6 INTS  and his passer rating is  76.3.  The Chargers face an uphill battle going against a rested Patriots team. The Pats have won a remarkable 8 straight playoff games at home and five of those by double digits.  Brady/ Belechik combo with two weeks of rest and preparation will be too much .

Patriots -4   3 stars 

Teaser : Pats  +2 & UNDER  53   1 star

The Saints are the most heavily favored team in this round  and for a reason.  They are incredible at home in the superdome.  The past two weeks has perhaps helped this team more than any other. Their Offensive line has been banged up but is now as healthy as it's been all season.  The Eagles on the other hand are banged up still . They ALSO come off a physical game vs the Chicago Bears.  They have been dealing with multiple backups in the secondary.  Saints get back  Ted Ginn Wr  this game and Hedgie expects the Saints to be too much at home.   The Eagles also have Darren Sproles who could provide a spark on offense.  The Hedgie prefers a TEASER leaning Saints and Over 

SAINTS  -2 and OVER  46    4 stars 

Saints -8  1 star

NFL SATURDAY

Dearest mother — Our victory frolicking has ceased. We must now begin our march to Kansas City to battle a unit of such great stature, every member has been granted the title of Chief. Our path has been long and winding, but I have never seen the men’s spirits higher. — Andrew

The Colts sure on a roll. Will their 3rd straight road game get the best of them? The Hedgie turns towards strengths vs weaknesses. The Chiefs have been fantastic all year. However, their last 7 games they have gone 1-5-1 against the spread. They have underperformed based on expectations. Losing Kareem Hunt from their backfield is a big deal. They also give up a league worst 5.0 yards per carry. The Colts strength has become their OLINE. They rushed for over 200 yards against the tough Texan defense last week. And Hedgie sees more of the same this week. No better way to slow the Chiefs than to keep Mahomes and his offense off the field. Frank Reich as a HC is also being underrated. Last years Eagles o coordinator has the Colts clicking on all cylinders and believing in themselves. This should be an entertaining game that goes to the end. Grab as many points as you can......

COLTS +6 3 stars

(also leaning over 56 points total)

the LA Rams struggled down the stretch going  2-2. They need a healthy Gurley  badly and might get it.  But vegas has had them overrated all season. The Rams started hot  but only finished  5-7-2 ATS.   Once again their weakness is their opponents strength.  The Cowboys identity is running the football. They upgraded at WR with the aquisition of Cooper and are on an 8-1  run.  Hedgie suspects they will come in loose and give the Rams all they can handle.  Do NOT want to trust Goff laying a TD or more

COWBOYS +7.5  1 star

NCAA champ- no play...