Saturday, January 12, 2013

WILDCARD SATURDAY

GAME 1:
The Ravens have proven they can be road warriors the past few seasons. This season they were 4-4 and 5-3  against the spread.  With Ray Ray announcing his retirement and a few defenders being healthier since their first meeting in Baltimore  the hedgie was leaning on grabbing the Ravens if it could get +10  since the opening money came in heavy on Denver.    However , today  there is Raven money and the Hedgie is seeing  Denver - 8.5  and 44.5.
 Denver  was favored in 12 games this year and posted a 9-2-1 spread record in those games.  They play well at home in the high altitude and average 32.5 points per game at home.   The Ravens on the other hand have one less day to prepare and are coming off a game vs Baltimore last week where the defense was on the field for 87 plays and 37.5  minutes.  The Hedgie thinks the Ravens will fight hard but it's just too much to overcome the shorter week in the altitude.   The best value here is :

TEASER:  Denver -2.5  &  OVER 38.5      2 stars

GAME 2:
The Packers are heating up.  Getting +3  with Aaron Rogers is very tempting  but the books are starting to charge too much juice  at  (-125)  and the line may dip to Niners -2.5.
  Hedgie thinks the best value here is the OVER.   Kapernick makes his first start and Dom Capers is likely to take some gambles and force him into mistakes.  A couple turnovers and a hot rogers  vs a niners defense with  Justin Smith not 100%  leads to:

OVER 44.5   2 stars