When the Packers /Niners game was being played some Vegas sportsbooks had the Niners -1.5 on their boards. As that game unfolded and the Niners looked dominant the wiseguys and early bettors jumped all over the Niners pushing the line from -1.5 to -4.5 in many spots. The line reached as high as Niners -5.5 at some books. It has settled in now around -4.
When was the last time a #1 Seed has been a dog!? Since 1979 it's happened 7 times and as you can see from the results there are not any particular betting angles from these stats:
2005: Patriots -3 at Steelers (#1) Pats win 41-27
2001: Vikings -1 at Giants (#1) Giants win 41-0
1998: Packers -1.5 at Niners (#1) Packers win 23-10
1989: Niners -2 at Bears (#1) Niners win 28-3
1983: Cowboys-2 at Redskins (#1) Skins win 31-17
1982: Cowboys -2 at Niners (#1) Niners win 28-27
1979: Cowboys -3.5 at Rams (#1) Cowboys win 28-0
Based on this info there's not really a historical betting angle so the Hedgie will focus solely on the current matchup.
Simply put, the Niners are more physical in the trenches and have a red hot QB who poses a real running threat out of the pistol offense. Last week the Packers played alot of man to man coverage which opened running lanes for Kaepernick. This week Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan who knows the Niners as well as anyone will play primarily zone schemes and shadow Kaepernick. But the bottom line is that the Niners Oline is more physical and all season the Falcons struggled vs the run giving up 4.8 yards ave. On Defense the Niners are stout and Hedgie sees the Falcons having a hard time moving the ball. Ironically enough Matt Ryan had a worse QB rating at home in the Georgia Dome this yr and threw 10 fewer TDs. Home field advantage will be a benefit which is why the Hedgie doesn;t like laying more than a FG here. The Falcons have played many close games this year evidenced by costing the Hedgie's loss last week as a 2.5 point favorites (30-28 win).
Today the Hedgie will play the NINERS MONEYLINE . It will depend what the spread is since many books are anywhere from -3.5 to -5 but generally you should be able to get :
NINERS -200 MONEYLINE 3 stars
GAME 2:
The Pats/ Ravens should be a heavyweight rematch bewteen two teams that know each other very well. The storylines here are Ray Lewis retiring after this season and playing inspired football (as usual) while the Pats will be without their star Tight End GRONK. HOWEVER ,The Hedgie sees this game unfolding due to another circumstance; THE WEATHER !
As a Cold Front marches east from the Great Lakes high winds are expected to reach Foxboro around gametime. Winds at 20 mph with gusts up to 50mph will play a factor in this game. Although it shouldn't affect Tom Brady's short passing game much it will affect Joe Flacco's deep balls. This will affect gameplans as the Ravens will most likely need to rely on Ray Rice and run the ball much more. The Pats defense has been much better also with the addition of Aqib Talib (aquired from Tampa at the trade deadline) and a health Devin McCourty at safety.
Interestingly enough the Pats lead the AFC in rushing attempts while the Ravens average 13 more rushing attempts per game since they switch to Jim Caldwell as O coordinator.
Without GRONK the Pats offense is less diverse. The Hedgie sees this game more like previous matchups here being played in the 40's . This could lend itself to a value play on the Ravens getting the points but be wary of the Ravens fresh legs. Although they will play inspired the defense was on the field alot vs the Colts and just came off a mile high win in DOUBLE OT hich was the 4th longest game played in playoff history. Donk think Belechik doesn't know this. If the Pats get a lead in teh wind expect a heavy dose of rushing t close out the game. The play here is :
UNDER 51.5 3 stars