NFL Championship Sunday

All the focus this week has been on Tom Brady's hand.  He hurt is in Wednesday's practice in a handoff to Rex Burkhead and has 4 stitches in the web of his right throwing hand.  Initially there were serious concerns but everything Hedgie has read up though sunday am indicates his Tom's hand is in BETTER SHAPE THAN EXPECTED.  He threw well in practice friday according to teammates.    The initial spread opened at Pats -8 and got bet up quickly to -9.5.  Although the Jags have a great defense and will have the ability to disrupt Brady up the middle regardless of his hand, the Hedgie sees this more simply as a Brady  vs Bortles matchup.  Bortles has played admirably in the past few games BUT his stats have been masked . in to playoff games Bortles has only thrown for 301 passing yards, 2 TDs and jsut over 50%  completions,  COMBINED.... Belechik will have a great gameplan in place.
   The current line is Pats -7.5 and 46.  Hedgie leans on both Pats and UNDER here.  With the total somewhat inflated after last weeks  45-42 game  The Hedgie's favorite play will be a .....

   TEASER :  PATS -1  and UNDER 52.5   3 stars

The late NFC game is all about  DEFENSE.  The Media is will talk about the Vikings applying for trademark of the "miracle Minnesota Vikings'  and wow what a game that was.  Hedgie was on the right side of that game last week.  But this week is all about two top rated defenses.  The Vikings are have the #1  ranked defense and the Eagles  #4.  Vegas has installed the Vikes as a 3 point favorite and the total at 39.   No team has EVER played in superbowl as a host.  The Vikings have a chance to make history and certainly have a little feel of destiny in them.  
  However,  if you deeper into this game a few stats stand out to the Hedgie.  The Eagles  defense AT HOME  have allowed 13.0 Points Per Game.  At Home the Vikes allow 12 ppg  BUT this game is in Phlly.  The Vikes allow  19.0  PPG on the road.  Also,Case Kennum has played great this entire season.  However, Keenum's stats on the road on grass are not as good either.  Keenum has an amazing  QB rating of  105  on 9 games in turf with his speedy receivers.  On 6 games on grass his rating drops to 88.7.   To the Hedgie this is the difference.  Hedgie leans on  Eagles as a home dog and leans under as well.  This game looks much like the Eagles falcons game last week.      In the spirit of grabbing value and adding to it  rather than bet  eags  and under  Hedgie will enjoy another ...

TEASER:   Eagles + 10  & UNDER 46.5     4 stars


*  Hedgie prefers to pay a little extra juice on a  7 point teaser  with -130. This allows  for taking the eagles up from +3  to +10  and  from  39.5  to  UNDER 46.5   (sportsbook.ag)  

Sunday Hedgie

no time fro the analysis.  today is a teaser day....


Jags +14  and under 48   2 stars    7 point teaser (-130)   



Vikes +1.5 and OVER 40   3 stars

Hedgie Playoff Saturday

Hedgie thinks vegas has the wrong team favored here.  As mentioned last week the Falcons are still not as good as last year. They caught a break when the Rams had two costly fumbles early. Now they must travel back east on a short week  and play on the road in the cold on grass vs a very good Eagles team.  This line would have you think that the Eagles  is all about QB Foles.  For the first time in NFL  betting history the #1  seed host is an underdog. The eagles feel slighted and will make a statement.

  Eagles +3   4 stars

For the Hedgie this game is about strengths vs weaknesses and the spread.  New England is well rested and at home and  has typically dominated. Which is also why there's s premium on the spread if you best the Pats.   But the Titans should be able to exploit the Pats run defense which ranked  30th in the league vs he run.  Derrick Henry should have success and as you saw last week  Mariota is healthy and can scramble and should be able to move the chains.  To beat the Pats its important to have a solid run game that can keep Brady off field.  Two touchdowns is too much.  

Titans +14   3 stars

Hedgie Wildcard Sunday

For The Hedgie this game comes down to Taylor vs Bortles when you are talking spread.  The Jags will surely feed Fornette and try and establish the run.  The Bills will have their best player McCoy playing but clearly under 100%.  If the Bills can slow the running game and force Bortles into a turnover or two they can hang around.  Taylor is mobile (much like Mariota) and threw  a league low 4 INts  this yr.  So the Bills are built to protect the ball and create turnovers.  This should keep them within striking range.  9 points is too much 

Bills +9  2 stars

Saints -6.5  vs panthers   47.5  Total

The Saints have beaten the Panthers twice already  this season.  In a nutshell the Saints defense is better and they've finally established a running game to help Drew Brees.   All the of the money is pouring in on the Saints -6.5 and under 49 (where it opened).  The Panthers are obviously very familiar with their NFC SOUTH foe so in this instance the Hedgie does not like laying a full touchdown.  Cam Newton has had a sore shoulder and been struggling lately but this game reminds me of when the Hedgie faded the Panthers  earlier in the season and they went to Detroit and gave put on an inspired effort.  The Panthers' Greg Olsen is healthy again and will see a lot of targets.  But in the end  The Saints will find a way to win. Every angle counts in the playoffs and Today's Referee crew lends itself to the Hedgie leans as well.  Tony Corentee's crew tends to throw pass interference flags more than usual. They have thrown the 2nd most  pass interference flags this season and Also have called the 2nd most false starts this season amongst all NFL crews.   This would lend toward possible an extra scoring opportunity on a passing play  .  But also the visiting team is more likely to have false starts in a dome in a playoff.  

So the Play today is :

TEASER:  SAINTS -0.5  and OVER 41.5   3 stars

Hedgie WILDCARD SATURDAY

At first blink it's hard not to like every favorite on the weekend.  Each team hosting is better on paper and rightfully so.  BUT  History tells us that  one of the underdogs will pull an upset.  



4:30pm Titans at Chiefs

The Chiefs have appeared to have righted the ship the past month by switching Offensive coordinators.  They had a midseason slump but now have been hot and have won last three games by an average of 14.5  pts.  Most every capper or article the Hedgie sees like the Chiefs  .  87% of the money in vegas is on the Chiefs to win outright.  There is also huge money TEASING all the favorite this weekend.  The Chiefs opened  at -8 and Total at 45.  The spread has climbed to -9  and under has dipped to 44.5  due to cold weather.   

Vegas  has inflated this line so the question becomes 'Can the Titans actually  WIN ?'
  Most stats and articles will point to the fact that  the Titans are missing  RB Murray , Have not played well on the road this yr,  and Mariota has thrown  12 TDs  vs 15 Ints this season.  They are coming off a short week where they had to beat the Jags to get in and have not played well on the road.

   The Hedgie has followed the league all year and watched the Titans struggle at times.  First of all  their #1 draft pick Corey Davis had an ankle injury and did not play for the first part of the yr.  It takes rookies awhile and he's finally healthy and an intergral part of the passing offense.   Secondly  ,  Mariota  had an injury that affected his running and passing.  He clearly struggled and their offense is built around his ability to run.  He's healthy again . Mariota's last three games  he has looked better.  His  QBR stats are 7th in the nfl ;  he's throw  3 TDs  vs 1 Ints the past 3 games ; and  rushed 10 times last week for 60 yards.  This is the Mariota Hedgie likes.  Murray is out  but Henry may be the better back  anyway.  

   Although most signs point to a Chiefs Victory,  they have NOT COVERED  6 of their last 7 games as a favorite.  This game will be played in cold weather   and Hedgie expects a large dose of Henry with Mariota designed runs to move the chains.  Hedgie sees a couple big pass plays to C Davis as well.  The Titan defense is better than average vs the run.  Hedgie's Crystal ball shows a tighter game than most think with Mariota getting some nice runs  (over 26.5 yards rushing 1 star)

Chiefs  23- Titans 17

TITANS +9   3 stars



Falcons at Rams  8:15pm

This game has a few pundits taking a shot on the Falcons as a live underdog.  Hedgie sees it differently.  The falcons are just not themselves.  Many bettors  still recall the Falcons of last yr since most of the same players remain.  BUT Kyle Shanahan is gone and the offense has struggled this year.  Under OC Sarkisian the Falcs produce  10 pts LESS per game.  This is a big storyline .  Sean McVay is an offensive genius and the Redkins missed him.  The Rams  led the NFL in offense this yr with 29 ppg.  Julio Jones took a big hit last week and is a tad banged up  while RB D Freeman also has a bum knee. Matt Ryan has imply not played well lately.    Ryan posted his worst  QB rating this season in December with a 78.1 rating.  The rams defense gets after the quarterback and Ryan is not mobile.
  The Hedgie's crystal ball here sees it getting a bit out of hand.  Rams are well rested and have all the mojo on their side....

Rams  30  Falcons 17

RAMS -5  3 stars