4:30pm Titans at Chiefs
The Chiefs have appeared to have righted the ship the past month by switching Offensive coordinators. They had a midseason slump but now have been hot and have won last three games by an average of 14.5 pts. Most every capper or article the Hedgie sees like the Chiefs . 87% of the money in vegas is on the Chiefs to win outright. There is also huge money TEASING all the favorite this weekend. The Chiefs opened at -8 and Total at 45. The spread has climbed to -9 and under has dipped to 44.5 due to cold weather.
Vegas has inflated this line so the question becomes 'Can the Titans actually WIN ?'
Most stats and articles will point to the fact that the Titans are missing RB Murray , Have not played well on the road this yr, and Mariota has thrown 12 TDs vs 15 Ints this season. They are coming off a short week where they had to beat the Jags to get in and have not played well on the road.
The Hedgie has followed the league all year and watched the Titans struggle at times. First of all their #1 draft pick Corey Davis had an ankle injury and did not play for the first part of the yr. It takes rookies awhile and he's finally healthy and an intergral part of the passing offense. Secondly , Mariota had an injury that affected his running and passing. He clearly struggled and their offense is built around his ability to run. He's healthy again . Mariota's last three games he has looked better. His QBR stats are 7th in the nfl ; he's throw 3 TDs vs 1 Ints the past 3 games ; and rushed 10 times last week for 60 yards. This is the Mariota Hedgie likes. Murray is out but Henry may be the better back anyway.
Although most signs point to a Chiefs Victory, they have NOT COVERED 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite. This game will be played in cold weather and Hedgie expects a large dose of Henry with Mariota designed runs to move the chains. Hedgie sees a couple big pass plays to C Davis as well. The Titan defense is better than average vs the run. Hedgie's Crystal ball shows a tighter game than most think with Mariota getting some nice runs (over 26.5 yards rushing 1 star)
Chiefs 23- Titans 17
TITANS +9 3 stars
Falcons at Rams 8:15pm
This game has a few pundits taking a shot on the Falcons as a live underdog. Hedgie sees it differently. The falcons are just not themselves. Many bettors still recall the Falcons of last yr since most of the same players remain. BUT Kyle Shanahan is gone and the offense has struggled this year. Under OC Sarkisian the Falcs produce 10 pts LESS per game. This is a big storyline . Sean McVay is an offensive genius and the Redkins missed him. The Rams led the NFL in offense this yr with 29 ppg. Julio Jones took a big hit last week and is a tad banged up while RB D Freeman also has a bum knee. Matt Ryan has imply not played well lately. Ryan posted his worst QB rating this season in December with a 78.1 rating. The rams defense gets after the quarterback and Ryan is not mobile.
The Hedgie's crystal ball here sees it getting a bit out of hand. Rams are well rested and have all the mojo on their side....
Rams 30 Falcons 17
RAMS -5 3 stars