Hedgie's last play of '19

UTAH -7  2 stars

Hedgie BOWLING MONDAY

Hedgie looking for a belated Christmas Gift from Santa who seems to be posing posing as Lovie Smith...

Illinois QB Brandon Peters missed the last game of the season vs Northwestern. But he's passed concussion protocol and is "ready to go ' . Peters was a graduate transfer from Michigan and has played very well this year throwing for 17 TDs and 7 Ints.  On Friday he said . " In my time at Michigan we never won a bowl game. So the end goal now is to finally get one under my belt."

   The fighting Illini are motivated and may even pull the upset

Illinois +7  4 stars  

Florida/  UVA  UNDER 55 1 star

Louisville +5.5 (or +6) 1 star

HEDGIE NFL SUNDAY

Bucs/Falcons OVER 47 1 star

Redskins +13  2 stars

Ravens +1  3 stars 

Chiefs MONEYLINE   -425 1 star

Hedgie SATURDAY BOWLING

Hedgie Bowl Record Thus Far:  4-2 ATS

  BYU -2.5  LOSS
  La Tech +6.5  WIN
 E. Michigan +11.5 WIN
 Wake F +10 & Under 56.5 WIN
 Air Force -2.5 WIN
  Air Force / Wash St OVER 68 LOSS

Saturday :

Noon : Iowa State / Notre Dame -  This is a tough game to handicap. Notre Dame is more balanced and probably slightly better on paper but not by much.  BUT are they MOTIVATED ??  They had their sights set on the national championship and now play in Orlando at NOON.  Iowa State is 7-5 BUT lost some heartbreaking close games and could have been a 9 or 10 Win team.  This is a big game for them.  There is rain in the forecast and the total has dipped from 61 to 59.5.   Hedgie leans towards grabbing the points ... Iowa State +3.5  1 star 

Noon: Penn State / Memphis -  Another game where MOTIVATION will be a big factor.  This is definitely the Biggest Game in Memphis History.  They come in as a 7 point underdog and have something to prove. However, their Head Coach Norvel left for Florida State and he also took his D coordinator with him.  In an attempt to keep continuity Memphis elevated their Oline coach to Head .  BUT  Norvel also called the offensive plays and that's a loss.  Penn State also has a new O coordinator but HC Franklin being there will give the Nittany Lions the edge.  So in the game of chess DURNG the game there is no doubt an advantage to Penn State.   So will Penn State be Motivated ?   HC Franklin should have his team ready this time.  Last year they lost the Citrus Bowl to Kentucky and this is not good for recruiting when its all said and done.  Franklin this week said " Mentality in Bowl Games is critical.  We know this is a big game for Memphis . I think our guys have prepared well. We better be ready for a dog fight" . There are also some injuries. Memphis starting TE Magnifico is out as well as Memphis' best DB Taylor.  Penn State QB Clifford was banged up this past month but is not getting healthier. Money is flowing in on the Memphis Tigers....  All these factors put the Hedgie on Penn State.  Try and grab the -6 ...

   PENN STATE -6  1 star


4pm:  Oklahoma/ LSU -  Some injuries on Oklahoma defense and the star RB for LSU.    These games  tend to get over analyzed .  Sifting through all the info can make one's head spin. Hedgie sees this boiling down to a game plan and game script . Oklahoma knows they can not go toe to toe with LSU and Joe Burrow.  If LSU has been susceptible at all this years it's vs running QBs.  Jalen Hurts has been here before and is a big strong runner.   Hedgie thinks the sooners will try and keep LSU offense off the field and run with Hurts all day.    The Total is 76 which is the highest of the bowl season.  Much like Air Force / Wash st last night most signs point to a high scoring game.  Hedgie sees . Oklahoma and Hurts utilizing the clock to their advantage and keeping this game closer than most think.
   Oklahoma +14 1   star

8pm: Clemson / Ohio State - wow this game is  the feature. Hedgie cant wait to watch all the talent .  Much of the money is split here with strong opinions.  Hedgie is looking to the trenches here and will back the team with the stronger run game.  Ohio State and RB Dobbins should have an edge in the trenches . Dobbins has not been talked about much . He has 1829 yards rushing  20 TDS and 17 receptions for 200 yards and 2 scores.  Hedgie thinks the edge and value lies with the Buckeyes.  see if you can get +3
    Ohio State +3  2 stars


*  Great Day of games  but notice not many stars for hedgie.  There are MANY GAMES LEFT to play the next few weeks....

HEDGIE Continues BOWLING....

Thursday , DEC 26th :

4pm : La Tech  Vs Miami U -  Miami is the more talented team BUT this play is about motivation.  Miami has some offensive players out and travels to Shreveport which is essentially a home game for La Tech.  The U is only 2-9 ATS its last 11 bowl games.     LA TECH +6.5   2 stars

8pm:  Pitt vs Eastern Mich - this is simply another play on spread record and motivation.  Pitt has not fared well as a double digit favorite going just 2-6-1 its last 9 while Eastern Mich is 6-1 ATS as a double digit dog its last 7.    Eastern Mich is also 21-6 away from home ATS . since 2016.  So Hedgie sees this as the motivated team today.            Eastern MICH +11.5  1 star

* both these lines are likely to be bet  up since public bettors are only familiar with the U and Pitt....so you can probably wait and catch better lines


FRIDAY , DEC 27th  :

3:20pm Michigan State / Wake Forest :   the PINSTRIPE BOWL Yankee Stadium .  It's been a rough year for Michigan State and they come limping into this game 3-13 ATS their last 16 games.  Their defense has been ok but their offense has been abysmal.   Sparty nation probably would like to see their QB of the future but HC D'antonio says he's sticking with his senior QB who has struggled all year.   On the other side Wake Forest has some injury concerns. Their staring QB is banged up but is apparently a go.  One of their star WRs Surratt  remains out as well.  Hedgie has a hard time seeing how Mich State is favored here and  15 of their last 20 games have gone under the number.  This will probably be the nly Bowl Teaser the hedgie makes....leaning Wake Forest . Leaning under....take +6.5 (-120)
     TEASER :  WAKE FOREST +10 & UNDER 56.5 1 star 


10:15 PM:  Washington State / Air Force :   Pure Passing team  Vs Option Team . Both teams will have a hard time preparing for each other and Both teams strength is vs the opponents weakness.  HC Mike Leach is an offensive genius and his team is 6th in the Nation in total offense. Meanwhile , AIR FORCE averaged 293 yards rushing per game and Washington St can't stop the run.   Hedgie's favorite play today is OVER 68.....additionally,  Air Force has been a covering machine going 21-7 ATS in its last 28 . non conference games and 5-2 ATS in its last 7 Bowl Games

Air Force/ Washington State   OVER 68 4 stars 

Air Force -2.5 1 star



   

HEDGIE GOES BOWLING

 It's time to go BOWLING ! 

 Hedgie is always wary of the Bowl games.   Coaches are changing jobs and you never really know the motivation for the young players in the smaller Bowls.  Already we've had the MAKERS WANTED BAHAMAS BOWL in the rain and wind. Buffalo crushed Charlotte 31-9. Hard to get an angle on that one. Then there's the TROPICAL SMOOTHIE FRISCO BOWL.  Utah State was favored by 7 and then their  NFL bound QB was arrested for smoking dope 3 days before the game  Kent State won that game  51-41.  The CHERIBUNDI BOCA RATON BOWL pitted the once top 20 SMU Mustangs vs FAU  who's coach Lane Kiffin is departing for the Ole Miss coaching job.  SMU has more talent and was favored by 3 . UNTIL 3 more FAU players were suspended and the star TE got the flu.  The Vegas line jumped to SMU -8 .  Guess who won that one !?    YEP !   FAU  52 - 28 
So you see where The Hedgie is going with this one.  In  2005 Hedgie was chilling in Miami and playing all the bowls.   Life was good. People were festive. Until the Hedgie went 0-7 in the early bowls and the Hate mail started flowing in ..... Lesson Learned... These days Hedgie only bets the games where there's a clear angle......So on  the eve before Christmas Hedgie is playing a 2 Star stocking stuffer  on :

   BYU -2.5  2 stars 
     BYU might have had a down year finishing 7-5 BUT there is clear motivation. Being a mormon school BYU has many players and students all over the world doing their missions.  In fact BYU has satellite campus in Hawaii.  So the 'home field' advantage that Hawaii usually has will not be here.  BYU head coach is the first  Tongan coach in the FBS and this carried a lot of meaning to him and the team who also has many Polynesian players on the roster.  When these two teams met in 2018 . BYU won 49-23 .  Hedgie sees a similiar result tonight.

                            (BYU Coach Kalani Sitake)

HEDGIE MNF

This is Mike Boone. He's the Vikings 3rd string RB.  Tonight Dalvin Cook has been ruled out with a chest and shoulder injury and backup  Mattison doubtful as well.   The money has been coming  on the Packers who have been +5.5 most of the past 3 days. The line is now +4.5. Also, it's widely publicized that Kirk Cousins is 0-8 on Monday Night Football.  So this also has more money flowing in on the Packers.  The HEDGIE likes this action and  sees it differently.  The Vikings are arguably  the most balanced team in the NFL and are 6-0 at HOME this year . The Vikings have a division title in their sights and revenge from the last meeting with the Packers .  Kirk Cousins has finally turned the corner. He's playing the best football of his career and has his best passer rating in his career thus far at 111.1.  Cousins has a 25-5 TD ratio and a 70.5 completion %. Getting back to Mike Boone.  He's a good running back.  He had  13 carries for 65 yards last week and 2TDs.  The Packers have been susceptible to the run and Boone has FRESH LEGS.
       Vikings -4.5 3 stars

NFL SUNDAY

Cardinals +9.5 3 stars -  Seattle is banged up with no Diggs on defense. And their Oline is having problems protecting QB Wilson.  Cards have been running well with Drake and are a Divisional Dog.  Seattle is only 2-4 ATS . at home.  Take the points 

Saints /Titans -  UPDATE *  Dereck Henry  is a scratch. This is big news and bad news for the Titans.   Tannehill has been playing lights out BUT  he plays much better with Henry running the ball on play action and also pass blocking as he is 250lbs.    Dion Lewis gets the start and is a small scat back.   The Titans can lose and still get in the playoffs. Vrable is only 4-6 as a home dog. The Saints will be focused . They are playing for the #2 seed in the playoffs....so Hedgie is going to do multiple plays tying in the SAINTS :

SAINTS MONEYLINE -180  1 star

TEASER : Saints +3 and Colts -1  (Colts at home hosting rookie QB Grier first start)
                   Saints +3  and Steelers +3 (Steelers fighting for playoff spot vs Jets)
                   Saints +3 and Broncos -1 (Broncos playing hard at home vs Lions who lost 7 straight)

 All 1 stars 


Teaser :  Eagles +8.5 and UNDER 52 . - 1 star   Dallas the more talented team BUT casn not trust DAK's shoulder here .  This is for all the marbles of the NFC EAST and both teams will be playing all out.  Value play


RAIDERS FIRST HALF +4 2 stars -  Raiders typically get off to a good start . Gruden is great at scripting opening drives. The Chargers have a terrible home crwod . so . there will be majority Raider fans. BUT Raiders are the WORST 3rd Q team in the NFL.   getting some good value here in a divisional dog

HEDGIE is focusing on NFL this weekend . and will have FIRST BOWL SELECTION MONDAY

1pm : Texans  @ Bucs  - The Texans opened -1.5 and 53 Total.  The Bucs will be without starting WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the line has been bet up to Texans -3 .  There is also 15 Mph winds in Tampa today  so the total has dropped to 50.5 .  J Winston has thrown for over 450 yards in two straight games which is historic.  new HC Bruce Arians is known as the QB whisperer and has done a good job with this roster.  The Bucs are also  on a 12-3 OVER run and allow  31 point per game at home.  Texans have Will Fuller back. There is rain and wind on the way to Florida but today Tampa should only have 13 Mph winds which will be ok for the passing game. 

       OVER 50.5    1  star

4:30pm : Bills @ Pats - This is a must win for the Pats. It's also a revenge game for the Bills who lost 10-16 at home in September.  That game the Pats blocked a punt and had only 11 first downs. The Bills defense has improved since then. Vegas has the Total set low at 37 and the Pats are -6.5 with more money coming in on the Pats.   We saw what the Bills did in Dallas. They did not have RB Singletary last game either.   The Pats are a tad banged up as well. Brady has a sore arm,  Edelman has been limited and are also now without slot DB Jon Jones.  Hedgie thinks this may allow Bills WR Beasley to make a few big plays. The Bills are 7-3 ATS the last 10 games as an underdog.   If you wait or buy the 1/2 point on the Bills now you can get +7 and thats the play

     TEASER 6.5 points :  Bills +13  & UNDER 44 1 star

     BILLS +7  (-120)   4 stars 

8:15pm : Rams @ 49ers -  These teams met early in LA and the 49ers won 20-7.  Since then the Rams have made adjustments and have been more balanced with Gurley running the ball well and setting up play action for Goff (which he desperately needs to succeed). The 49ers are a better team WHEN HEALTHY .   BUT the 49ers are banged up.  They have 3 defensive starters that are out :  Dee Ford ,  Tart (S) ; and Taylor (DT) .    This will allow the Rams to establish the run and get in their groove.  Because they laid an egg last week in Dalls we are getting nice line value.  49ers are -6.5 (-115). Most money is in on the 49ers simly based on how bad the Rams looked last week on National TV.      Much like the Bills the Rams are a DIVISIONAL DOG. ..buy the 1/2 point !

   RAMS +7 (-120) 3 stars 

Hedgie been studying Bowls and has leans on :

C Mich +3.5

Ga Southern -4

Wash -3

but first play will be MONDAY

Hedgie NFL Sunday Week 15

Farewell to the Black Hole - Last Raider's Game EVER in the Coliseum today

Redskins +7 1 star   (you can also buy this up to +7  -120 in some spots) - The Eagles almost lost to the 2-10 Giants on Monday night and now must travel on a short week to a divisional rival.  They are banged up at multiple positions. WRs Algolor and Jeffery are out and stud Olineman Lane Johnson is doubtful.  The Redskins are banged up themselves but fighting under the leadership of  HC Callahan and have covered 5 of last 7.  AP is 282 yards away from  1000 yards rushing.  The skins will be motivated.

Titans -3 1 star - Tennessee is  currently HOT . Once they switched to Ryan Tannehill at QB  they are  6-1 straight up and have gone OVER the total 7 straight games.   RB Henry was dealing witha sore hammy but is supposed to play today.  Texans WR Fuller is questionable but looks like a GO as well . The Titans DBs  are banged up as well . So hedgie will play    OVER 51  1 star as well


Giants/Dolphins OVER 45  1 star  - The Giants will go with Eli at QB again which may be his last game in the meadowlands.  The Giants are getting healthier  offense but their defense has been terrible and they released starting DB  Jenkins this week due to controversial twitter remarks.   The Dolphins  have covered 7 of their last 9 and are still playing hard but have the 32nd ranked defense. Dolphins give up 31 points per game and the Giants aren't far behind.  There might be some wind today so monitor that.  If good conditions play an extra star

Cards/Browns  OVER 49 1 star -  the cards currently give up the most yards per pass in the nfl and have really struggled on defense.   Baker Mayfield and the Browns have weapons and balance and should have success vs Cards here.   The Browns are without DE Vernon and Garrett which should allow for the Cards to move the ball as well.   A little bad blood here between Baker and  Cards HC  Kingsbury .  Baker transferred from Texas Tech to Oklahoma in his college days when Kingsbury was the coach so Hedgie expects no letup when the opportunity to score presents itself.

Falcons /49ers OVER 48 1 star -  49ers are really banged up on defense. Matt Ryan and co shold have some sucess.   HC Shanahan knows he'll need to score on the vulnerable Falcons defense and the 49ers will

Packers -3.5  2 stars  - Packers are at home in December and fighting for playoff positioning.  Hedgie doesn't trust Tribusky at all.

Raiders -6.5  3 stars -  LAST GAME EVER AT THE COLISEUM. Perfect timing for Raiders who will be fired up and get the pathetic Jaguars who have LOST their last 5 games by an  average of 23 points !  

RAMS -1      4 stars  -  the Rams are HOT.  They are finally using Gurley and have a balanced attack. Their WRs are healthy  and Goff is playing well behind an improved Oline.  The cowboys have bange d up linebackers which will be exploited.  This is NOT a must win for the cowboys as they play the eagles next week . The cowboys have talent but are clearly dysfunction. They are 0-6 vs winning teams this year.  

Vikings  -1  4 stars  -  The Vikes are a legit playoff team and thats mostly now because  Cousins is playing good ball and the past 9 weeks has throw 19 Tds and just 2 ints. They get no respect for playing on the road but this week get WR Thielen back and go vs a Chargers team who have a terrible home field advantage in a small stadium with very little fan support.  Vikings roll...

ARMY NAVY .

The Army Navy game has gone UNDER 17 of the past 22 games.  These teams both run option offenses and are familiar with how to defend each other.  This is it for Army  They had a down season and finished 5-7.  So no bowl game for them.    Vegas set a very low  total at 40.5 knowing the past history.   Hedgie leans Army +11  and leans over.....   so prefer a 

TEASER :   ARMY +17.5  and OVER 35   1 star 

THURSDAY NFL

The Ravens are rolling and understandably heavy favorites at home tonight.  But the JETS have been playing better lately and will get Leveon Bell back after he missed last game with the flu.  This line opened at Ravens -14.5 and Lamar Jackson was listed as questionable with a quad strain.  Lamar will start and says he's fine and the line has gone all the way up to -17 .   It's a short week and by week 15 the players are all banged up. Hedgie thinks the Jets will hang around BUT  If the Ravens get a big lead Hedgie also thinks the Ravens will sit Jackson which allows for a backdoor cover as well.

JETS +17  1 star

SUNDAY HEDGIE

RAMS . PICKEM  2 stars - Hedgie will back the Rams again this week as Seattle must travel on a short week after playing the Vikings Monday Night.  Goff is not as good a Wilson but he has all his WRs healthy and is coming off a good game last week.where he threw for . 424 yards

Titans -2.5  4 stars -  The Titans are 5-1 since Tannehill replaced Mariota.  Their offense should have a field day vs a poor Raiders defense.  The past 2 games the Raiders have been outscored 74-12 . 

Jaguars/Chargers . UNDER 43 1 star - The Jaguars are a mess. Theh are goiving rookie QB . Minshew the start again.  The Chargers are gettimg healthier on defense but the play here is that BOTH teams are very slow.  Rivers takes all his time on clock .  The Chargers rank 30th and Jaguars rank 31st in a stat called 'situation neutral'. This basically means each team takes there sweet time implementing their game plan and play calling.

Panthers +4 1 star - Ron Rivera was fired this past week and he was a player's coach. But the Panthers have lost 4 straight to the Falcons and Hedgie thinks they'll play hard and make this a close game if not win .  


Colts +3.5 1 star -  better team in the trenches.  Getting good value here since J Winston has played well lately . BUT Colts are well coached and play zone defense which Winston typically struggles vs.  Mack is supposed to play for Colts and kicker Vinatieri is replaced by kicker Chase McLaughlin which is a net positive for the Colts.

Redskins/Packers OVER 42 1 star -  this line is just too low 

Today only one play ... Cincinnati +10 2 stars

Hedgie SUNDAY

RAMS -2.5  4 stars -  great 'situation' for Rams.   Cards QB Murray is dealing with a hamstring and the Rams are 3-1 on the road and coming off an embarrassing loss.  

Teaser  :  Bucs +3 and OVER 40.5  2 stars - Bucs have gone 'over' 9 straight. This line has gone from Jags -3  to Jags +3.  ALL the money on Bucs .  prefer teaser here 

Packers /Giants OVER 44  2 stars  - there's some wind in the meadlowlands but Rogers plays well in the wind and should not affect him much.  Packers bounce back 

Colts  pickem  1 star . - all the money is in on the hot Titans team . BUT hedgie prefers the Colts with extra rest at home