The Super Bowl is one of those ga
mes that is picked apart from every angle. TV shows , analysts, pundits all have their opinions and predictions. You can go to ESPN.com and find pages and pages of analysis and picks. The Hedgie always tries to dig for value and tries to find the intangibles that might make the difference or get overlooked.
This particular super bowl is a great matchup on paper. Two great QB's and two great defenses. The hot team with the public right now is the Green Bay Packers and for noticable reasons. Aaron Rogers has been playing lights out and got a great win in the Georgia Dome vs the Falcons. This team is built for turf and the general perception here is that the Packers will spread out the Steelers defense with 4 and 5 WR's sets and attack through the air on their way to victory.
Another big topic is Maurkice Pouncey. His high ankle sprain vs the Jets will most likely keep him out of the Super Bowl. This is a big concern as he started all 16 games. BUT the Hedgie has a different angle here . Maurkice Pouncey is good and will be missed . But not as much as the HEDGIE thinks. his backup , Doug Legursky, is good too. He's started 4 games at guard this season for the Steelers and has seen plenty of action He's played center at Marshall University where he hold 2 weight lifting records for the squat (705 lbs) and the hang clean (430lbs). With an extra week to prepare and get in sync the Hedgie thinks the Steelers line will be just fine and might actually be better off with their run offense.
The Steelers are well coached and have EXPERIENCE on these side as well. They know the Packers will most likely spread it out and their best way to counter that is with a strong running game keeping Rogers off the field. Look for a big role from Mendenhall in this game as well.
The Vegas line is of importance here too. Hedgie has always been a value player and there is no doubt that Vegas set this line early with the Packers favored by -2.5 knowing that the public would be on the Packers. The money has continuously come in on Green Bay pushing the line to -3 and the over/under to 45. The value here definitely lies with the Steelers and +3.
Looking back at the past 7 Super Bowls 3 have been decided by 3 points while 5 have gone Under the posted total.
2010 Saints 31 Colts 17 UNDER 57
2009 Steelers 27 Cards 23 OVER 46
2008 Giants 17 Pats 14 UNDER 55
2007 Colts 29 Bears 17 UNDER 47
2006 Steelers 21 Seahawk 10 UNDER 47
2005 Pats 24 Eags 21 UNDER 46.5
2004 Pats 32 Panthers 29 OVER 37.5
This year's theme for the Hedgie is THE BIG LEGURSKY :
STEELERS +3 3 stars
UNDER 45 3 stars
Also , a few PROPS:
Brandon JAckson UNDER 11.5 Yards
Greg Jennings OVER 5 Receptions
Greg Jennings OVER 80.5 Yards
First Player to score TD Hines Ward 10/1
