Luke Bryant Over 127.5 nations anthem
Davonte Freeman 9/1 first td
Tiololo 35/1 first td
Edelman over 95.5 yards
Sunday, February 5, 2017
Hedgie last play of a GREAT SEASON...
It's been a great season for
the Hedgie and the Hedgie has a lot to thank for the Falcon's who went 9-0 over
at home in the Georgia Dome . The line for this game has been stuck at
Pats -3 and the Total is the Highest ever set at 59. The Public is on the
Pats and the books have been occasionally adjusting the juice to Pats -3
(-115) or (-120) . But Expect the line to stay at -3 by kickoff.
There's a lot of wiseguy money that likes the Falcons to keep the pot
balanced. Just yesterday at CG Technology Casino in Vegas a person put
$1.1m on the Falcons at +3 to win $1m. The Public is also on the
OVER 59 but that's being evened out by alot of wise guy money on the
under.
So How does the Hedgie see the last game of the season playing out? There are so many factors statistics and angles to take. It's a great chess match in many ways.But The Hedgie's biggest focus is on the Pats Offense vs the Falcons D. The Falcons are missing 2 players that to many are talking about. Adrian Clayborn was the Falcons best interior lineman and he tore a biceps vs the Seahawks and is out. The reason this is big is because the best way to impact and affect Tom Brady is up the middle. Brady is the quickest at getting the ball out of his hands and although the Falcons have great speed in guys like Vic Beasley The Hedgie doesn't see them making an impact from the outside rush. Big advantage Patriots especially when they can change gears and attack up the middle with a big back like Legarrette Blount . The Falcons also lost their best defender earlier in the season in Desmond Trufant. The Falcons now rely on DBs Jalen Collins, 5'10" Robert Alford and undrafted 5'9" Brian Poole. Hedgie thinks Poole is going to be exploited hard by the Pats.
Make no mistake The Falcons have a great offense and the Pats will have their hands full. They boats the #1 defense in the league in points allowed with just under 16 ppg. This argument could be flawed in that the Pats really didn't play against potent offenses this year. However, their strengths are not getting beat by the deep ball. They were top 5 in the league at allowing only 16 pass plays of 30 yards or more all season. They were also best in the league at Yards After Catch with a league low 4.1 YAC statistic. This bodes well for the Pats bend but don't break and occasionally stopping the Falcons from a TD but rather holding them to a FG.
Another tangible to consider is the returning health of Dion Lewis. He's had a big impact in the playoffs and with his return the Pats are utilizing no huddle more with him on the field which creates even more nightmares for opposing defenses.
With the Pats 2nd in the league in kickoffs and 3rd in punts there should not be many big plays in the kicking game. Both teams also had a league low 11 giveaways. Both teams protect the ball well. The Hedgie doesn't think there will be many turnovers which also cold lead to higher scoring affairs.
The Falcons have been blitzing moren the playoffs but will have a hard decision to make in this game . Brady is #1 in the NFL vs the bltiz. He's throw 11 TDs and 0 ints vs the blitz this year.
The Hedgie sees the Falcons coming out earlier and scoring but as the game wears on Belechick will adjust and Brady and the offense will be too much for the falcons to handle. If the Pats get a lead you'll see a heavy dose of Blount which will also chew up alot of clock.
UNDER 59 3 stars - since 1967 9 Super Bowls had totals listed in the 50s and were predicted to be high scoring. The Under went 6-3.
Pats -3 2 stars
Patriots 30 Falcons 24
PROP PLAYS also coming and will be posted LATER today....let's not forget about the Hedgie's call for 1st TD in Super Bowl XLII when he posted a bet on Gary Russell of the Steelers to score the first TD of the game vs the Cards at 33/1 !!!
Good luck !!
So How does the Hedgie see the last game of the season playing out? There are so many factors statistics and angles to take. It's a great chess match in many ways.But The Hedgie's biggest focus is on the Pats Offense vs the Falcons D. The Falcons are missing 2 players that to many are talking about. Adrian Clayborn was the Falcons best interior lineman and he tore a biceps vs the Seahawks and is out. The reason this is big is because the best way to impact and affect Tom Brady is up the middle. Brady is the quickest at getting the ball out of his hands and although the Falcons have great speed in guys like Vic Beasley The Hedgie doesn't see them making an impact from the outside rush. Big advantage Patriots especially when they can change gears and attack up the middle with a big back like Legarrette Blount . The Falcons also lost their best defender earlier in the season in Desmond Trufant. The Falcons now rely on DBs Jalen Collins, 5'10" Robert Alford and undrafted 5'9" Brian Poole. Hedgie thinks Poole is going to be exploited hard by the Pats.
Make no mistake The Falcons have a great offense and the Pats will have their hands full. They boats the #1 defense in the league in points allowed with just under 16 ppg. This argument could be flawed in that the Pats really didn't play against potent offenses this year. However, their strengths are not getting beat by the deep ball. They were top 5 in the league at allowing only 16 pass plays of 30 yards or more all season. They were also best in the league at Yards After Catch with a league low 4.1 YAC statistic. This bodes well for the Pats bend but don't break and occasionally stopping the Falcons from a TD but rather holding them to a FG.
Another tangible to consider is the returning health of Dion Lewis. He's had a big impact in the playoffs and with his return the Pats are utilizing no huddle more with him on the field which creates even more nightmares for opposing defenses.
With the Pats 2nd in the league in kickoffs and 3rd in punts there should not be many big plays in the kicking game. Both teams also had a league low 11 giveaways. Both teams protect the ball well. The Hedgie doesn't think there will be many turnovers which also cold lead to higher scoring affairs.
The Falcons have been blitzing moren the playoffs but will have a hard decision to make in this game . Brady is #1 in the NFL vs the bltiz. He's throw 11 TDs and 0 ints vs the blitz this year.
The Hedgie sees the Falcons coming out earlier and scoring but as the game wears on Belechick will adjust and Brady and the offense will be too much for the falcons to handle. If the Pats get a lead you'll see a heavy dose of Blount which will also chew up alot of clock.
UNDER 59 3 stars - since 1967 9 Super Bowls had totals listed in the 50s and were predicted to be high scoring. The Under went 6-3.
Pats -3 2 stars
Patriots 30 Falcons 24
PROP PLAYS also coming and will be posted LATER today....let's not forget about the Hedgie's call for 1st TD in Super Bowl XLII when he posted a bet on Gary Russell of the Steelers to score the first TD of the game vs the Cards at 33/1 !!!
Good luck !!
Sunday, January 22, 2017
Hedgie
Two Hot Quarterbacks. Two so so defenses. When these teams met earlier in the season on October 30th the Falcons won 33-32. The Falcs are 9-0 OVER this year. Ride the trend....
Falcons 40 Packers 35
OVER 60 4 stars
Packers +6 1 star
Late Game : leaning Steelers with +6 or more 1 star
Sunday, January 15, 2017
Hedgie NFL SUNDAY
Last week Jordy Nelson took a shot in the game that broke two ribs. He's been declared inactive today. However, most of the money keeps flowing in on the Packers and the Over. At Sportsbook.ag 79% of the money is on the over.
When these teams met earlier in the season the Cowboys Oline dominated and the Hedgie sees more of the same. The Packers have won 7 straight and are here because of Aaron Rogers but the cowboys have the recipe to run the ball and keep the packers offense off the field. This will also chew up alot of the clock. Hedgie leans cowboys and under and prefers a teaser....
TEASER: Cowboys +1.5 & UNDER 60 (6.5 points -120) 3 stars
The Chiefs / Steelers game time was changed due to a pending ice storm. This has affected the line a bit too. Money is in on the home team and has flowed in on the under b/c of the weather conditions. However, if you look at this closer there is an opportunity to go against this trend. First of all the Chiefs are without Linebacker Derrick Johnson and that has hurt them especially vs teams that can run the ball like the Steelers. The Steelers are coming in hot and confident. They already beat the Chiefs earlier this year. Andy Reid will have his team ready and is 19-3 coming off a bye week in his coaching career. But the chiefs don't blow teams out.
Also, although there may be some icy conditions keep in mind that Arrowhead field is HEATED. This will not be an ice bowl. If anything the field will be wet. So the Hedgie sees another opportunity to use a teaser to take the Steelers up over a touchdown and the total for scoring abover 37.5 with the recent dip in the line...
TEASER: STeelers +8.5 and OVER 37.5 2 stars
Saturday, January 14, 2017
NFL PLAYOFFS
It's hard to go against the heavy trends this season. The falcons have a great offense and have gone OVER the total 13-2-1 this year and 8-0 OVER at home. Hedgie has benefitted form this all season and its not time to over think this trend....
Seattle has a great defense but Kam Chancellor is not particularly good in coverage and will be exploited. Seattle signed Devin Hester recently and they may get a boost in their return game which will help scoring.
The Falcons also have been bet up from -4 to -6.....today Hedgie will continue to ride the over and play a tease with falcons over as well...
OVER 51 4 stars
Teaser: Falcons pickem & OVER 45 3 stars
Can you name this guy ? Thought so.....
Earlier this season the Pats and Texans were both 2-0. The Texans came to foxboro and were embarrassed 27-0 with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Today will be more of the same. With the vegas lines inflated towards the pats and under Hedgie prefers teasing it....
Teaser: Pats -9.5 and UNDER 50.5 3 stars
Pats 30 Texans 13
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