hedgie's final play of 2013 ...a 5 star!

Boston College +7.5.      5 stars !!!

Bad matchup for AZ. Hedgie expects a Big game from RB Andre Williams and efficient QB play from Rettig.  AZ dropped 3 of their last 4 games to finish the season.  BC could win outright in this spot....
Hedgie looves the 7.5 pts here....

DEC 30 BOWLS

Navy/ Midd Tenn State   OVER 56.5   4 stars

Texas  +14.5   3 stars

Az State -14  1 star

NFL WEEK 17

Lions +3     4 stars
Lions won't throw in the towel just yet !  
Likely Schwartz last game as Lions HC  Hedgie thinks they will play hard despite their recent woes  (No AP for the Vikes today also)






Steelers -6.5  (-120)   3 stars

Jags +10.5  3 stars

Falcons +6.5  2 stars

2013 Year End BOWLING.... DEC 26th

6pm:  Pitt +5     4 stars   

930pm: Utah St  +1   3 stars

NFL SUNDAY

Bears +3    3 stars

Browns +2  3 stars

Dolphins -2   3 stars

Steelers +1.5  3 stars

Hedgie sunday

Bills -3 3 stars

Dolphins -1.5 3 stars

Saints -6 2 stars

Eagles -6 2 stars

Browns +1.5 1 star

MNF - Hedgie likes the cold weather cowboy tonight...

MNF has been on an under streak lately with 3 straight going under and with this total set fairly high Hedgie thinks an Teaser is in order...the Cowboys opened up a 1 point fav and for some reason lately this line has swung to the Bears -1.5. Perhaps  Mike Ditka having his jersey retired or just the cold weather.....but Hedgie like the Value here with the Cowboys grinding out Murray in the run game a lil bit . Romo who grew up in Wisconsin will handle the  cold weather just fine....

Teaser:  BOYS +7.5  & UNDER 54.5   2 stars

NFL SUNDAY

When Ron Burgundy interviewed Peyton about last week's Hedgie 5 star 'over ' play  vs the Chiefs  Peyton just  laughed and said it'll happen again this week vs the Titans...

Broncos/Titans OVER 49   5 stars

Patriots/Browns OVER 47  3 stars

Titans +13   2 stars

Dolphins +3.5  2 stars

49ers -2.5  2 stars

Eagles/Lions OVER  52.5 2 stars

Bucs/Bills OVER 42  2 stars

* Be cautious of all the east coast weather today. in washington and baltimore there is rain snow sleet . at first glance hedgie was loving the chiefs -3 but with the weather and KC without Fasano and starting tackles Alberts the hedgie decided to look elsewhere

NCAA HEDGIE - Another 5 star on the plate !

STANFORD  +3    5 stars

  Wrong team favored here.  Sundevils without top rusher Marion Grice and the Stanford Cardinal has the better Defense.   Stanford wins outright...Hedgie taking the generous  +3

Texas +16  2 stars

Ohio St  -5   2 stars

Hedgie's first follow-up since the 5 star Hit !

The Jags have been playing with a little more confidence lately while the  Texans have been more conservative with it's offensive play calling with Case Keenum.  This divisional matchup should probably stay under 43.5  but the Hedgie likes  a home dog / under TEASER :





TEASER:   6.5  pts   JAGS 10  &  UNDER 50    2 stars

NFL SUNDAY

Broncos/Chiefs  OVER 48.5    5 stars

                                                     (Peyton points OVER as he'll be comfortable in the pocket today)

Both teams have defensive injuries and this Total will climb so get it in early.  
The Broncos are 12-2-1  OVER in their past 15 games .....

Hedgie will post remaining plays today  approx by Noon ...stay tuned


Cardinals +3.5   1 star

Bucs +7.5  1 star

Titans +4  2 stars

will post  at 345pm any late game plays....

Hedgie Saturday

Michigan +17  2 stars

Kentucky +4   3 stars

Tex am/Missouri  OVER  66.5  3 stars

Air Force / Colorado  OVER 59.5  2 stars

Kansas State -17  2 stars

Clemson/ South Carolina  OVER 58.5  2 stars

POST TURKEY FRIDAY....

only one play today....focusing on saturday & sunday...

TOLEDO -8  2 stars

Happy Thanksgiving

DET/GBUNDER 49.5 3 stars

Raiders +9  2 stars

Ravens -2.5  2 stars

Mississippi  -4  1 star


5 team Turkey Teaser:   6pts pays 4.5/1

 Lions -0.5
Lions UNDER 55
Raiders +15
Ravens +3.5
Mississippi +2 

11/21 Weekend

Hedgie is digging deep this weekend...

NFL SUNDAY:

Rams -1.5  3 stars

Browns -1.5 3 stars

Titans -1.5  2 stars




NCAA:

Memphis +23.5   1 star

Central Michigan -11.5  2 stars

Wyoming -6  2 stars

Cincinnati  +3  3 stars

Oklahoma St +9   4 stars

Texas AM / LSU   OVER 70.5  4 stars

Hedgie getting back in the Saddle....with 2 NCAA plays...

Central Florida  -17   2 stars    (higher line  1 star)

Rice  / UAB  OVER 63.5  2 stars

Monday Night NFL

This was Hedgie on his couch yesterday....expecting big things....instead of JJ Watt  getting redemption at home for his coach's return  it was Hedgie who got the Bloody Nose....

Tonight sticking with the card:

PATS +3    3 stars


Pats/Panthers  OVER 47  1 star

HEDGIE ALERT ! BIGGEST CARD OF THE YEAR 5 STAR!! with 10 PLAYS TOTAL

NFL SUNDAY:

The Oakland Raiders will be without their star running back Mcfadden as they get ready to travel to Houston but more importantly they most likely will be without Terrell Pryor as he was downgraded today at practice with his ailing knee. Undrafted QB Matt McGloin took all the first team reps in Friday's practice and will  be getting his first nfl start on the road vs what is still a very strong Texan's Defense.  The Texans will be getting Kubiak back from his mini stroke who will be coaching and play calling from the box and not the sideline  . This will create an extra charge for the home team who will be playing with alot of emotion for their coach.   Horrible spot for the Raiders.  Hedgie sees a BLOWOUT : Texans 27   Raiders 13

Texans -7  5 stars    

note: this line is climbing as the news of McGloin is getting more press...-7.5 to -9 still 4 stars

JETS Pickem   4 stars    Bills EJ Manuel is still knocking the rust off after returning from injury and will be without BOTH his starting wideouts in Woods and Stevie Johnson. The Jets are coming off a bye and have a lil swagger

Patriots +2.5  (+3 -125)  4 stars    Pats are the best team coming off a bye with an amazing 24-1 regular season record in the 2nd half of the season since 2010.  Belechik, Brady and Co are getting healthy. You don't get a chance to take the Pats as an underdog coming off a bye much. Jump on any points   Pats will confuse Cam Newton and  the Panther offense enough and get the outright win

Saints  -3   3 stars    Bottom line is the Saints are a different team at home and  the 49er's Kapernick is really struggling right now

Chargers -1  2 stars   Miami is in disarray with their O Line issues. Hedgie thinks Rivers and co will overcome the long road trip and steal a win  in south florida

Chargers/Dolphins  UNDER 45.5  1 star   Both O-lines banged up in this one. Defenses should control the game here

Chiefs +8   2 stars

Browns/Benglas UNDER 41  2 stars  - WEATHER ALERT

LIONS -2    2 stars

Redskins / Eagles  OVER 53  1 star

Friday Night Lights

UCLA  -3  2 stars     Bruins have been tough at home this season

HEDGIE THURSDAY

Hedgie likes the Home DOG getting +3   

Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting at QB  and should play a GUTSY game   after an embarrassing loss to the Jags last week...

Titans +3   1 star

Hedgie MNF

Miami Dolphins starting Guard Richie Incognito is probably KICKING himself for all the stupid things he's said lately but it's the BUCS Defense that's the happier unit today.  Incognito was a strong player with an attitude and the Miami Offense will miss him tonight.   Bucs QB Glennon has showed improvement and tonight as the Hedgie leans towards the home dog and the under the best play is:

TEASER: BUCS +8.5  & UNDER 47  2 stars

NFL SUNDAY .... HEDGIE is 8-0 past 2 Sundays.....

Packers +1    1 star

Steelers -3  1 star

49ers -6   3 stars

49ers/Panthers  OVER 43  2 stars

Saints -6.5  2 stars

Saints/Cowboys  OVER 54  2 stars

HEDGIE SATURDAY NCAA

Arizona St   -7  1 star

Pitt/Notre Dame UNDER 50.5  1 star

TCU-7    3 stars

UCLA  +2  3 stars

Texas -6  3 stars

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Redskins -2.5   1 star   (based on many Vinking injuries)

Stanford +10.5   2 stars

NFL Sunday

Hedgie doesn't love this card  and will stay disciplined.....

JETS +7   1 star

Redskins pickem  2 stars

Colts -1.5  2 stars

NCAA November 2

Air Force  pickem  1 star

UVA/CLEMSON  OVER 56  2 stars

Notre Dame -14 (-120)    2 stars

Miami +21  2 stars   

Thursday Night Football

This is Jonothan Martin the starting Left Tackle for the Miami Dolphins the past 2 years.  His teammates were 'ribbing' him and played a joke apparently on him Monday and Jonathan didn't like it so he  LEFT THE TEAM......He will not be playing not vs the Bengals.  Also Brandon Gibson WR  is our for the year  from an injury vs Patrioost last week   so the Dolphins are going to struggle to produce points tonight.   They do have a good defense and they are at home with their backs against the wall.  So the Hedgie sees this game as an UNDER type  of play more than a Bengals road favorite play.  Lately Hedgie has been playing with TEASERS  in the NFL  ONLY  around the number 3  and tonight qualifies as just that:

6.5 pt TEASER:  BENGALS +3.5 & UNDER  50    2 stars

The Hedgie has a play tionight coming off it's SUNDAY SWEEEEEEEP .....

Guess who this is?   It's Not Kellen Clemons holding a Seahawk that he caught .....It's actually Adam Wainwright of the St Louis Cardinals who will be pitching on the mound for ST Louis in the World Series tonight.     If you have an familiarity with St Louis you'll know they like their baseball a lil more than their football.....so the crowd for tonight;'s MNF  should be SPARSE.....The TV Cameramen will have a hard time concealing this pathetic crowd....which will result in a beatdown by the Hawks and most likely a low scoring game....  the betting public is all one way when it comes to betting this one.  Seahawks are -14 in many spots already....and the total is  43.5  / 44  ....  The Hedgie often likes the HOME DIVISIONAL DOG , but NOT TONIGHT....it's been a strange season in the NFL  and 2 recent games come to mind....Panthers  last thursday  -7 and 44  demolished the Bucs 31-13  in a ho hum game.....and Packers  -7  44   demolished the Vikings  44-31.    Hedgie thinks this will play out very much like the Panthers Game last thursday.   Seeing 13.5  and 43.5  the Hedgie will play :  (6.5 point teaser  MINUS 120)

TEASER:   SEAHAWKS  -7    & UNDER 50  
   3 stars

p.s.  the only St Louey worth a play tonight  is Wainright -126 for 1 star

NFL Oct 27

Cowboys +3    2 stars

Cowboys/Lions  OVER 51  3 stars

Saints/Bills OVER 48  2 stars


TEASERS:

Cardinals +4  &  UNDER 52   1 star ( roddy white out for the falcs and mendenhall out for the cards but hedgie likes cards Rb Ellington more anyway. )

Broncos -5.5 &  OVER  52    2 stars   (skins are down 2 safeties as Merriweather is suspended and Doughty didn't make the trip....who ever said the hedgie doesnt fade the skins??)

NCAA OCt 26th

Colorado +13   4 stars

Ohio State -14  (-120)   4 stars   (this line is moving higher.  even at -16  hedgie likes 2 stars)

NFL WEEK 7

Falcons  -6.5  1 star

Cowboys +3   2 stars

Jaguars +7.5   3 stars

NCAA

Cincinnati  -14  1 star

Mississippi +10  1 star

Ohio St  -17.5  1 star

Florida State -3  3 stars

NFL Week 6

Tampa +3  1 star   (No Vick will slow down the eagles rushing attack and the latest staff infection news  in tampa  has more money flowing in on the eagles.  this line was -1.5 early in the week   so catching a full FG with a home dog in tampa is good value. Not to mention this is the eagles 3rd straight road game)

Houston -7  (-120)  3 stars  (line going up  in many spots.  this game feels to the hedgie like the texans will rally around schaub and what better spot than to get healthy ay home vs the rams whose defense is 28th vs the run.  if you can only catch -8  then just reduce your exposure to 2 stars

Bengals/Bills   UNDER 42  2 stars     Bills start Thad Lewis vs Bengals D which is playing well.  Look for a 20-13 type of game

Steelers  Pickem  1 star       Jets off a short week and Steelers coming on off a bye week with a new LT and LeVeon Bell in the backfield.  Geno played great monday night but should revert to a rookie with a turnover or 2  vs the steelers D  who'll be prepared

Redskins +5.5  1 star     Skins also off a bye.  After RG3  missing the entire preseason he's finally had the chance to knock the rust off  after  4 reg season games.  Hedgie expects RG3 to play more like his old form last yr .   Is dallas tired after it's 48-51 loss last week? Skins are rested and alot is on the line in the NFC East standings This game should be competitive  Skins have covered 6 straight vs the boys  Hedgie thinks it'll be 7...

NCAA Oct 13

Texas +13 2stars

Duke -4 stars

Mississippi +7 2 stars

Mississippi St -10 2stars

Michigan St -9.5 2 stars 

The HEDGIE is gonna pass on NFL tonight BUT....does have an opinion tonight

Just 11 days after USC fired Coach Lane Kiffin there is a renewed sense of energy with the Trojans.  They had a bye week and there's alot of positive energy and excitement back at USC under new  Coach  'O'.....

A renewed focus on simply playing should bolster USC as it returns to Pac-12 action.

 Tweet from Devon Leonard  #42  "FIRST PRACTICE WITH COACH O WAS LIVE!"
Tweet from Leonard Willaims "Yesterdays Practice was so fun!  Thats how competition days are supposed to be!"

so tonight  will be an all out 100% max effort from everyone at USC which will be too much for Arizona to overcome....  

   USC -5.5    4 stars

NFL WEEK 6 ALERT - CALVIN JOHNSON INACTIVE...remove lions OVER play..

Panthers -1   2 stars

Packers/Lions take down if possible...megatron inactive
(hedgie locked this line in saturday as it appeared to be moving higher. today before megatron announement the line was 55 in many spots. hopefully playing the under at 53.5-55  will allow to neutralize the wager if nothing losing just the juice)

Niners/Texans Over 41.5  2 stars

Chargers -4.5  3 stars

Teaser:  Chiefs +3.5 & OVER 32.5  2 stars

The Hedgie needs to get it going.... NCAA Week 6

Boston College -11     2 stars

Georgia Tech +7  (-120)  1 star

Nebraska -7  (-120)  1 star

Marshall -14  1 star

Kansas +17  1 star

Penn St -3  2 stars

Stanford -7    4 stars

NFL WEEK 4

Jaguars +9.5   2 stars    (sportsbook.com)

Chargers +2  1 star

Titans -3 (-115 juice)  3 stars

Eagles +11  2 stars

NCAA SEPT 28

Connecticut -1     1 star

La Tech Pickem  1 star

Georgia -3   2 stars

Ohio State -7  3 stars

Stanford -9   3 stars

THURSDAY NIGHT HEDGIE

NFL TEASER:   A lot of the books have Niners -3  with added juice. They don't want off that key number  and with the total set at 42  the bookmakers are calling for a close divisional game.  Niners have lost 2 in a row for the first time under Harbaugh and doesnt think it will go to 3.   Without Aldon Smith  and polaying on turf  this game couid well be in the high 40s.  Hedgie likes taking  6.5 point teaser  :
    NINERS +3.5  &  OVER  35.5     2 stars


NCAA:  Ga Tech -6.5  (-115 juice)    2 stars    Va Tech Hokies are coming off a triple OT win vs Marshall and have a 5 day turnaround to prepare for the triple option attack off the yellow jackets.    

Tulsa  -3   -   1 star      Tulsa plays well at home and has been playing better since it's opening day stinker vs bowling green

NFL Week 3

Redskins +1  2 stars

Giants -1  2 stars

Ravens +1  2 stars

Dolphins -2 .5  3 stars

Teaser:  Vikings -.5 &  Under 46.5  2 stars

NCAA SEPT 21

Maryland -4.5   2 stars

Notre Dame -4.5  2 stars

Air Force +4.5  3 stars

BYU -6.5  3 stars

USC -6.5  3 stars

Stanford -6  3 stars

THE HEDGIE coming off an 8-2 Star Studded Sunday !

Clemson -13.5   2 stars

NFL TEASER :  Eagles  +3.5  & OVER 43.5  (6.5 pt teaser)   -  books playing wiht the juice onthis line    eags -3 (-125)  so hedgie likes to cross the lines and make eags as a home dog thurs  night.  The eags and Chip Kelly have been averaging 68 plays per game and both games so far have flown over the total    ...why not make the eags a home dog and over 43.5  !?     2 stars

(chip kelly telling Vick about home dogs and over teasers)

NFL WEEK 2

Titans +9    3 stars

Chargers +7.5    2 stars

Bills/Panthers OVER 43.5   2 stars

Dolphins  +3  1 star

Jags  +5  1 star

Giants +4.5  1 star

NCAA SEPT 14

UCLA  +3.5   3 stars

Tennessee  +28  2 stars

USC  - 13.5  2 stars

Hedgie takin it easy in Week 1....

will come out swinging in week  2....

NCAA WEEK 2

Notre Dame  +4   1 star

Georgia -3   1 star

Texas -7   2 stars

Hedgie's First NFL play of the season...

Someone sent hedgie a photo a few months back telling him how the Ravens would stink this coming season…..

apparently Flacco has no teammates…..and vegas set the line acccordingly

So with the Denver Broncos already proclaimed Super Bowl favorites in vegas at 7/1  the Hedgie thinks this is a good opportunity to take the points with the underdog…

The Line opened at Denver -9 and a few wise guys agree  because it's now  Denver -7.5….

Denver's Center tonight gets his first start as such, and Hedgie thinks Halogti Ngata is gonna have a lil fun with that (not to mention Terrell Suggs) 

The Ravens have a lot of pride and Hedgie thinks this game will be very competetive...

  Take RAVENS  +7.5   2 stars

Hedgie looks to scalp the book in 1st play of the year...

Matchup: Florida State @ Pittsburgh
Venue: Heinz Field , Pittsburgh (grass)
Date: Monday , Sept 2
Time/Tv: 8pm ET  Espn
Line: Florida State -10 , Over/Under 49

This game will be 'FAMOUS' Jameis Winston's first game as a signal caller for Florida State.
Some are calling Winston the best EVER prospect to play QB at Florida St.  Time will tell but there's no doubt the redshirt is prepared and ready for the stage.....The Noles have some turnover especially on defense but their cupboards are full of talent and speed.  Not a good recipe for Pittsburgh in their debut into the ACC. Especially after the departure of their 2 best players from last year in Sunseri (QB) and Graham (RB).  THe Noles will give a good ole fashioned butt-whooping welcome to the Panthers tonight.......



Noles  -10      3 stars

IT'S GONNA BE A JAILBREAK YR FOR HEDGIE !

The Hedgie is patiently watching week 1 of college football and may release a play for Monday Night but is focused and been following all the STOOGES of the NFL this offseason and ready to play on  WEEK 1  

BTW,   the San Diego Tribune did a nice report on all the NFL Players that have been arrested this year (www.utsandiego.com/nfl/arrests-database/) and Guess what the score is NFC vs AFC  !?

Through August 11th with the arrest of Von Miller it's a dead heat   NFC 18 - AFC 18 

As you can see there's a lot to follow in the offseason and once again the Hedgie is ready ....

Good Luck This Season !!!

Sunday Madness

Duke -5.5  1 star

Mississippi -3.5   2 stars

Temple +12   2 stars

Florida Gulf Coast +8   3 stars

SATURDAY MADNESS

Michigan -3.5  1 star

Marquette/Butler  OVER 126  3 stars

Colorado St  +11  1 star

Oregon +4   1 star

Gonzaga -7  1 star

Arizona -10  2 stars

Cal +8   1 star

Early game : Michigan -3.5 1 star. More to come

MADNESS FRIDAY

DUKE  -18.5    2 stars

MISSISSIPPI  +6   1 star

Temple. NC State  OVER  149.5  1 star

Miami  OVER  124.5  1 star

Cinci/Creighton  UNDER 128.5    1 star

JMU +22   2 stars

JMU/Indiana  OVER 136.5   3 stars

Florida Gulf Coast +14  2 stars


Villanova +4.5  1 star

Ioawa State  -1   1 star

Minnesota -3   2 stars

Colorado +1.5   2 stars

Northwestern State  +20.5  2 stars

THURSDAY MADNESS

12:40pm  Bulter  -3.5    1 star

1:40pm  Pitt -4      3 stars

1:40pm  Pitt/Wichita St     UNDER 119   1 star

2:45pm   Memphis  -1   1 star

3:10pm   Davidson +3.5     2 stars

4:40pm  Oregon/Oklahoma St    OVER 135  2 stars

7:15pm South Dakota St  +11.5     1 star

7:20pm  AZ  -4   2 stars

9:45pm   VCU  -7    2 stars

9:50   New Mexico  -10.5    2 stars

MARCH MADNESS HEDGIE COMES OUT SWINGING

This is Rayshawn Goins.  He is the leading scorer and rebounder for the JMU Dukes.  He was arrested this past saturday night and will be forced to miss the first half of tonight's game vs LIU Brooklyn.  Las Vegas Apparently doesn't think this is a big deal  as the LINE has been a PICKEM the past 3 days and hasn't moved.  EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY  - THE FIRST HALF LINE IS ALSO A PICKEM. 
'NUFF SAID ...  HEDGIE SAYS :

LIU BROOKLYN  PICKEM  FIRST HALF        
  5 STARS

Super Bowl XLVII

Much like last post  Hedgie is going to ride the hot hand of Kapernick and the 49ers Offense.  You can prepare for the Pistol offense all you want but if it's run effectively it's extremely difficult to stop. Back on DEC 9th   The Redskins ran the pistol vs the Ravens and won  31-28  in a game where the Redskins were -2 favorites with an Over under of  48.  The Redskins won  31-28.  This is a much different game obviously but the flow should be similar . Kapernick is playing at a high level and Hedgie doesn't think the big stage will bother him.   If the Ravens key on Kap then Gore will have a huge day behind a great O-LINE.   
 Bottom line is that the 49ers are younger and have superior Offense and Defense. Perhaps the Ravens have an edge at Kicker with Justin Tucker but this game will boil down to the 49ers and the touchdowns they score.  

 Much like the 49ers/Falcons game the Hedgie prefers :

 49ers MONEYLINE  -180    3 stars  (the fair value here is  the -160 to -180 range) 

Some Super Bowl Props the Hedgie likes as well:

Ray Rice    OVER 3.5 receptions  (sportsbook.com)

Ray Rice OVER 27.5  Receiving Yards (sportsbook.com)

Randy Moss  UNDER 38.5  Receiving yards (sportsbook.com)

FIRST TD :  Frank Gore  8/1 (sportsbook.com)

Good Luck !

NFL Championships

After a tough Wildcard weekend Hedgie gets back on his horse to finish the season strong.  There's alot to analyze this weekend with both games and all sorts of different angles.   

   When the Packers /Niners game was being played some Vegas sportsbooks had the Niners -1.5 on their boards.  As that game unfolded and the Niners looked dominant the wiseguys and early bettors jumped all over the Niners pushing the line  from  -1.5  to -4.5 in many spots.  The line reached as high as Niners -5.5 at some books. It has settled in now around  -4.   
  When was the last time a #1 Seed has been a dog!?   Since 1979  it's happened 7 times and as you can see from the results there are not any particular betting angles from these stats:

2005:  Patriots -3  at Steelers (#1)     Pats win  41-27
2001:  Vikings -1  at Giants (#1)      Giants win 41-0
1998:  Packers -1.5 at Niners (#1)   Packers  win 23-10
1989:  Niners -2    at Bears (#1)       Niners win  28-3
1983:  Cowboys-2 at Redskins (#1)  Skins  win  31-17
1982:  Cowboys -2 at Niners (#1)     Niners win 28-27
1979: Cowboys -3.5 at Rams  (#1)  Cowboys win 28-0

Based on this info there's not really a historical betting angle so the Hedgie will focus solely on the current matchup.  
     Simply put, the Niners are more physical in the trenches and have a red hot QB  who poses a real running threat out of the pistol offense.  Last week the Packers played alot of man to man coverage which opened running lanes for Kaepernick. This week  Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan who knows the Niners as well as anyone will play primarily zone schemes and shadow Kaepernick. But the bottom line is that the Niners Oline is more physical and all season the Falcons struggled vs the run giving up 4.8 yards ave.   On Defense the Niners are stout and Hedgie sees the Falcons having a hard time moving the ball.  Ironically enough Matt Ryan had a worse QB rating at home in the Georgia Dome this yr and threw 10 fewer TDs.   Home field advantage will be a benefit which is why the Hedgie doesn;t like laying more than a FG here. The Falcons have played many close games this year evidenced by costing the Hedgie's loss last week  as a  2.5 point favorites  (30-28 win).  
    Today the Hedgie will play the NINERS MONEYLINE .  It will depend what the spread is since many books are anywhere from  -3.5  to -5  but generally you should be able to get :
   NINERS -200  MONEYLINE     3 stars

GAME 2:
  The Pats/ Ravens should be a heavyweight rematch bewteen two teams that know each other very well.  The storylines here are  Ray Lewis retiring after this season and playing inspired football (as usual) while the Pats will be without their star Tight End GRONK.  HOWEVER ,The Hedgie sees this game unfolding due to another circumstance;  THE WEATHER !

  As a Cold Front marches east from the Great Lakes  high winds are expected to reach Foxboro around gametime.  Winds at 20 mph  with gusts up to 50mph  will play a factor in this game.  Although it shouldn't affect Tom Brady's short passing game much  it will affect Joe Flacco's deep balls.  This will affect gameplans as the Ravens will most likely need to rely on  Ray Rice and run the ball much more.  The Pats defense has been much better also with the addition of  Aqib Talib (aquired from Tampa at the trade deadline) and a health Devin McCourty at safety.  
  Interestingly enough the Pats lead the AFC in rushing attempts while the Ravens average 13 more rushing attempts per game since they switch to Jim Caldwell as O coordinator. 
    Without GRONK the Pats offense is less diverse. The Hedgie sees this game more like previous matchups here  being played in the 40's  . This could lend itself to a value play on the Ravens getting the points  but  be wary of the Ravens fresh legs.  Although they will play inspired the defense was on the field alot vs  the Colts and just came off a mile high win in DOUBLE OT hich was the 4th longest game played in playoff history.   Donk think Belechik doesn't know this.  If the Pats get a lead in teh wind  expect a heavy dose of rushing t close out the game.   The play here is  :
     UNDER 51.5    3 stars

SUNDAY WILDCARD

sorry for the late post.......

Falcons -2.5  (-120)   2 stars

UNDER 46.5       2 stars



late game coming soon...

WILDCARD SATURDAY

GAME 1:
The Ravens have proven they can be road warriors the past few seasons. This season they were 4-4 and 5-3  against the spread.  With Ray Ray announcing his retirement and a few defenders being healthier since their first meeting in Baltimore  the hedgie was leaning on grabbing the Ravens if it could get +10  since the opening money came in heavy on Denver.    However , today  there is Raven money and the Hedgie is seeing  Denver - 8.5  and 44.5.
 Denver  was favored in 12 games this year and posted a 9-2-1 spread record in those games.  They play well at home in the high altitude and average 32.5 points per game at home.   The Ravens on the other hand have one less day to prepare and are coming off a game vs Baltimore last week where the defense was on the field for 87 plays and 37.5  minutes.  The Hedgie thinks the Ravens will fight hard but it's just too much to overcome the shorter week in the altitude.   The best value here is :

TEASER:  Denver -2.5  &  OVER 38.5      2 stars

GAME 2:
The Packers are heating up.  Getting +3  with Aaron Rogers is very tempting  but the books are starting to charge too much juice  at  (-125)  and the line may dip to Niners -2.5.
  Hedgie thinks the best value here is the OVER.   Kapernick makes his first start and Dom Capers is likely to take some gambles and force him into mistakes.  A couple turnovers and a hot rogers  vs a niners defense with  Justin Smith not 100%  leads to:

OVER 44.5   2 stars

BCS Championship

Money coming in on the Irish today and the under.....The Hedgie likes teasing Bama from  -9.5  to -3   with the UNDER  from 40.5   to  47   (6.5  point  teaser)

just 1 star  -  Good Luck     BAMA -3  & UNDER 47

NFL WILDCARD SUNDAY

Ravens -6.5  (-120)    2 stars

Hedgie update

vikes Qb change.....ooff  ...change on the fly....

hedgie like this..

Joe Webb 90 minutes from kickoff the new Qb..

vikes +10  is a good play  AND the over still

he will run the option, the packer did not prepare, this could help the bikes...

NFL WILDCARD

Bengals +4.5   1 star

Packers/Vikes  OVEr 45.5   3 stars

BOWL GAME FRIDAY

Oklahoma  +3    2 stars

Fiesta Bowl late pick...

Oregon/K st    UNDER 74  2 stars   

Sorry for the late post....

Happy New Year !!

Hedgie Finished the year yesterday 2-0 and hopes to continue a new string in 2013....

Today:

Purdue/Okl St   UNDER 69   2 stars

Mississippi State PICKEM 1 star

Nebraska / Georgia  UNDER 61.5  2 stars

(Nebraska +9 or better worth a shot as well)

Wisconsin +6   3 stars