Hedgie's last play of '19

UTAH -7  2 stars

Hedgie BOWLING MONDAY

Hedgie looking for a belated Christmas Gift from Santa who seems to be posing posing as Lovie Smith...

Illinois QB Brandon Peters missed the last game of the season vs Northwestern. But he's passed concussion protocol and is "ready to go ' . Peters was a graduate transfer from Michigan and has played very well this year throwing for 17 TDs and 7 Ints.  On Friday he said . " In my time at Michigan we never won a bowl game. So the end goal now is to finally get one under my belt."

   The fighting Illini are motivated and may even pull the upset

Illinois +7  4 stars  

Florida/  UVA  UNDER 55 1 star

Louisville +5.5 (or +6) 1 star

HEDGIE NFL SUNDAY

Bucs/Falcons OVER 47 1 star

Redskins +13  2 stars

Ravens +1  3 stars 

Chiefs MONEYLINE   -425 1 star

Hedgie SATURDAY BOWLING

Hedgie Bowl Record Thus Far:  4-2 ATS

  BYU -2.5  LOSS
  La Tech +6.5  WIN
 E. Michigan +11.5 WIN
 Wake F +10 & Under 56.5 WIN
 Air Force -2.5 WIN
  Air Force / Wash St OVER 68 LOSS

Saturday :

Noon : Iowa State / Notre Dame -  This is a tough game to handicap. Notre Dame is more balanced and probably slightly better on paper but not by much.  BUT are they MOTIVATED ??  They had their sights set on the national championship and now play in Orlando at NOON.  Iowa State is 7-5 BUT lost some heartbreaking close games and could have been a 9 or 10 Win team.  This is a big game for them.  There is rain in the forecast and the total has dipped from 61 to 59.5.   Hedgie leans towards grabbing the points ... Iowa State +3.5  1 star 

Noon: Penn State / Memphis -  Another game where MOTIVATION will be a big factor.  This is definitely the Biggest Game in Memphis History.  They come in as a 7 point underdog and have something to prove. However, their Head Coach Norvel left for Florida State and he also took his D coordinator with him.  In an attempt to keep continuity Memphis elevated their Oline coach to Head .  BUT  Norvel also called the offensive plays and that's a loss.  Penn State also has a new O coordinator but HC Franklin being there will give the Nittany Lions the edge.  So in the game of chess DURNG the game there is no doubt an advantage to Penn State.   So will Penn State be Motivated ?   HC Franklin should have his team ready this time.  Last year they lost the Citrus Bowl to Kentucky and this is not good for recruiting when its all said and done.  Franklin this week said " Mentality in Bowl Games is critical.  We know this is a big game for Memphis . I think our guys have prepared well. We better be ready for a dog fight" . There are also some injuries. Memphis starting TE Magnifico is out as well as Memphis' best DB Taylor.  Penn State QB Clifford was banged up this past month but is not getting healthier. Money is flowing in on the Memphis Tigers....  All these factors put the Hedgie on Penn State.  Try and grab the -6 ...

   PENN STATE -6  1 star


4pm:  Oklahoma/ LSU -  Some injuries on Oklahoma defense and the star RB for LSU.    These games  tend to get over analyzed .  Sifting through all the info can make one's head spin. Hedgie sees this boiling down to a game plan and game script . Oklahoma knows they can not go toe to toe with LSU and Joe Burrow.  If LSU has been susceptible at all this years it's vs running QBs.  Jalen Hurts has been here before and is a big strong runner.   Hedgie thinks the sooners will try and keep LSU offense off the field and run with Hurts all day.    The Total is 76 which is the highest of the bowl season.  Much like Air Force / Wash st last night most signs point to a high scoring game.  Hedgie sees . Oklahoma and Hurts utilizing the clock to their advantage and keeping this game closer than most think.
   Oklahoma +14 1   star

8pm: Clemson / Ohio State - wow this game is  the feature. Hedgie cant wait to watch all the talent .  Much of the money is split here with strong opinions.  Hedgie is looking to the trenches here and will back the team with the stronger run game.  Ohio State and RB Dobbins should have an edge in the trenches . Dobbins has not been talked about much . He has 1829 yards rushing  20 TDS and 17 receptions for 200 yards and 2 scores.  Hedgie thinks the edge and value lies with the Buckeyes.  see if you can get +3
    Ohio State +3  2 stars


*  Great Day of games  but notice not many stars for hedgie.  There are MANY GAMES LEFT to play the next few weeks....

HEDGIE Continues BOWLING....

Thursday , DEC 26th :

4pm : La Tech  Vs Miami U -  Miami is the more talented team BUT this play is about motivation.  Miami has some offensive players out and travels to Shreveport which is essentially a home game for La Tech.  The U is only 2-9 ATS its last 11 bowl games.     LA TECH +6.5   2 stars

8pm:  Pitt vs Eastern Mich - this is simply another play on spread record and motivation.  Pitt has not fared well as a double digit favorite going just 2-6-1 its last 9 while Eastern Mich is 6-1 ATS as a double digit dog its last 7.    Eastern Mich is also 21-6 away from home ATS . since 2016.  So Hedgie sees this as the motivated team today.            Eastern MICH +11.5  1 star

* both these lines are likely to be bet  up since public bettors are only familiar with the U and Pitt....so you can probably wait and catch better lines


FRIDAY , DEC 27th  :

3:20pm Michigan State / Wake Forest :   the PINSTRIPE BOWL Yankee Stadium .  It's been a rough year for Michigan State and they come limping into this game 3-13 ATS their last 16 games.  Their defense has been ok but their offense has been abysmal.   Sparty nation probably would like to see their QB of the future but HC D'antonio says he's sticking with his senior QB who has struggled all year.   On the other side Wake Forest has some injury concerns. Their staring QB is banged up but is apparently a go.  One of their star WRs Surratt  remains out as well.  Hedgie has a hard time seeing how Mich State is favored here and  15 of their last 20 games have gone under the number.  This will probably be the nly Bowl Teaser the hedgie makes....leaning Wake Forest . Leaning under....take +6.5 (-120)
     TEASER :  WAKE FOREST +10 & UNDER 56.5 1 star 


10:15 PM:  Washington State / Air Force :   Pure Passing team  Vs Option Team . Both teams will have a hard time preparing for each other and Both teams strength is vs the opponents weakness.  HC Mike Leach is an offensive genius and his team is 6th in the Nation in total offense. Meanwhile , AIR FORCE averaged 293 yards rushing per game and Washington St can't stop the run.   Hedgie's favorite play today is OVER 68.....additionally,  Air Force has been a covering machine going 21-7 ATS in its last 28 . non conference games and 5-2 ATS in its last 7 Bowl Games

Air Force/ Washington State   OVER 68 4 stars 

Air Force -2.5 1 star



   

HEDGIE GOES BOWLING

 It's time to go BOWLING ! 

 Hedgie is always wary of the Bowl games.   Coaches are changing jobs and you never really know the motivation for the young players in the smaller Bowls.  Already we've had the MAKERS WANTED BAHAMAS BOWL in the rain and wind. Buffalo crushed Charlotte 31-9. Hard to get an angle on that one. Then there's the TROPICAL SMOOTHIE FRISCO BOWL.  Utah State was favored by 7 and then their  NFL bound QB was arrested for smoking dope 3 days before the game  Kent State won that game  51-41.  The CHERIBUNDI BOCA RATON BOWL pitted the once top 20 SMU Mustangs vs FAU  who's coach Lane Kiffin is departing for the Ole Miss coaching job.  SMU has more talent and was favored by 3 . UNTIL 3 more FAU players were suspended and the star TE got the flu.  The Vegas line jumped to SMU -8 .  Guess who won that one !?    YEP !   FAU  52 - 28 
So you see where The Hedgie is going with this one.  In  2005 Hedgie was chilling in Miami and playing all the bowls.   Life was good. People were festive. Until the Hedgie went 0-7 in the early bowls and the Hate mail started flowing in ..... Lesson Learned... These days Hedgie only bets the games where there's a clear angle......So on  the eve before Christmas Hedgie is playing a 2 Star stocking stuffer  on :

   BYU -2.5  2 stars 
     BYU might have had a down year finishing 7-5 BUT there is clear motivation. Being a mormon school BYU has many players and students all over the world doing their missions.  In fact BYU has satellite campus in Hawaii.  So the 'home field' advantage that Hawaii usually has will not be here.  BYU head coach is the first  Tongan coach in the FBS and this carried a lot of meaning to him and the team who also has many Polynesian players on the roster.  When these two teams met in 2018 . BYU won 49-23 .  Hedgie sees a similiar result tonight.

                            (BYU Coach Kalani Sitake)

HEDGIE MNF

This is Mike Boone. He's the Vikings 3rd string RB.  Tonight Dalvin Cook has been ruled out with a chest and shoulder injury and backup  Mattison doubtful as well.   The money has been coming  on the Packers who have been +5.5 most of the past 3 days. The line is now +4.5. Also, it's widely publicized that Kirk Cousins is 0-8 on Monday Night Football.  So this also has more money flowing in on the Packers.  The HEDGIE likes this action and  sees it differently.  The Vikings are arguably  the most balanced team in the NFL and are 6-0 at HOME this year . The Vikings have a division title in their sights and revenge from the last meeting with the Packers .  Kirk Cousins has finally turned the corner. He's playing the best football of his career and has his best passer rating in his career thus far at 111.1.  Cousins has a 25-5 TD ratio and a 70.5 completion %. Getting back to Mike Boone.  He's a good running back.  He had  13 carries for 65 yards last week and 2TDs.  The Packers have been susceptible to the run and Boone has FRESH LEGS.
       Vikings -4.5 3 stars

NFL SUNDAY

Cardinals +9.5 3 stars -  Seattle is banged up with no Diggs on defense. And their Oline is having problems protecting QB Wilson.  Cards have been running well with Drake and are a Divisional Dog.  Seattle is only 2-4 ATS . at home.  Take the points 

Saints /Titans -  UPDATE *  Dereck Henry  is a scratch. This is big news and bad news for the Titans.   Tannehill has been playing lights out BUT  he plays much better with Henry running the ball on play action and also pass blocking as he is 250lbs.    Dion Lewis gets the start and is a small scat back.   The Titans can lose and still get in the playoffs. Vrable is only 4-6 as a home dog. The Saints will be focused . They are playing for the #2 seed in the playoffs....so Hedgie is going to do multiple plays tying in the SAINTS :

SAINTS MONEYLINE -180  1 star

TEASER : Saints +3 and Colts -1  (Colts at home hosting rookie QB Grier first start)
                   Saints +3  and Steelers +3 (Steelers fighting for playoff spot vs Jets)
                   Saints +3 and Broncos -1 (Broncos playing hard at home vs Lions who lost 7 straight)

 All 1 stars 


Teaser :  Eagles +8.5 and UNDER 52 . - 1 star   Dallas the more talented team BUT casn not trust DAK's shoulder here .  This is for all the marbles of the NFC EAST and both teams will be playing all out.  Value play


RAIDERS FIRST HALF +4 2 stars -  Raiders typically get off to a good start . Gruden is great at scripting opening drives. The Chargers have a terrible home crwod . so . there will be majority Raider fans. BUT Raiders are the WORST 3rd Q team in the NFL.   getting some good value here in a divisional dog

HEDGIE is focusing on NFL this weekend . and will have FIRST BOWL SELECTION MONDAY

1pm : Texans  @ Bucs  - The Texans opened -1.5 and 53 Total.  The Bucs will be without starting WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and the line has been bet up to Texans -3 .  There is also 15 Mph winds in Tampa today  so the total has dropped to 50.5 .  J Winston has thrown for over 450 yards in two straight games which is historic.  new HC Bruce Arians is known as the QB whisperer and has done a good job with this roster.  The Bucs are also  on a 12-3 OVER run and allow  31 point per game at home.  Texans have Will Fuller back. There is rain and wind on the way to Florida but today Tampa should only have 13 Mph winds which will be ok for the passing game. 

       OVER 50.5    1  star

4:30pm : Bills @ Pats - This is a must win for the Pats. It's also a revenge game for the Bills who lost 10-16 at home in September.  That game the Pats blocked a punt and had only 11 first downs. The Bills defense has improved since then. Vegas has the Total set low at 37 and the Pats are -6.5 with more money coming in on the Pats.   We saw what the Bills did in Dallas. They did not have RB Singletary last game either.   The Pats are a tad banged up as well. Brady has a sore arm,  Edelman has been limited and are also now without slot DB Jon Jones.  Hedgie thinks this may allow Bills WR Beasley to make a few big plays. The Bills are 7-3 ATS the last 10 games as an underdog.   If you wait or buy the 1/2 point on the Bills now you can get +7 and thats the play

     TEASER 6.5 points :  Bills +13  & UNDER 44 1 star

     BILLS +7  (-120)   4 stars 

8:15pm : Rams @ 49ers -  These teams met early in LA and the 49ers won 20-7.  Since then the Rams have made adjustments and have been more balanced with Gurley running the ball well and setting up play action for Goff (which he desperately needs to succeed). The 49ers are a better team WHEN HEALTHY .   BUT the 49ers are banged up.  They have 3 defensive starters that are out :  Dee Ford ,  Tart (S) ; and Taylor (DT) .    This will allow the Rams to establish the run and get in their groove.  Because they laid an egg last week in Dalls we are getting nice line value.  49ers are -6.5 (-115). Most money is in on the 49ers simly based on how bad the Rams looked last week on National TV.      Much like the Bills the Rams are a DIVISIONAL DOG. ..buy the 1/2 point !

   RAMS +7 (-120) 3 stars 

Hedgie been studying Bowls and has leans on :

C Mich +3.5

Ga Southern -4

Wash -3

but first play will be MONDAY

Hedgie NFL Sunday Week 15

Farewell to the Black Hole - Last Raider's Game EVER in the Coliseum today

Redskins +7 1 star   (you can also buy this up to +7  -120 in some spots) - The Eagles almost lost to the 2-10 Giants on Monday night and now must travel on a short week to a divisional rival.  They are banged up at multiple positions. WRs Algolor and Jeffery are out and stud Olineman Lane Johnson is doubtful.  The Redskins are banged up themselves but fighting under the leadership of  HC Callahan and have covered 5 of last 7.  AP is 282 yards away from  1000 yards rushing.  The skins will be motivated.

Titans -3 1 star - Tennessee is  currently HOT . Once they switched to Ryan Tannehill at QB  they are  6-1 straight up and have gone OVER the total 7 straight games.   RB Henry was dealing witha sore hammy but is supposed to play today.  Texans WR Fuller is questionable but looks like a GO as well . The Titans DBs  are banged up as well . So hedgie will play    OVER 51  1 star as well


Giants/Dolphins OVER 45  1 star  - The Giants will go with Eli at QB again which may be his last game in the meadowlands.  The Giants are getting healthier  offense but their defense has been terrible and they released starting DB  Jenkins this week due to controversial twitter remarks.   The Dolphins  have covered 7 of their last 9 and are still playing hard but have the 32nd ranked defense. Dolphins give up 31 points per game and the Giants aren't far behind.  There might be some wind today so monitor that.  If good conditions play an extra star

Cards/Browns  OVER 49 1 star -  the cards currently give up the most yards per pass in the nfl and have really struggled on defense.   Baker Mayfield and the Browns have weapons and balance and should have success vs Cards here.   The Browns are without DE Vernon and Garrett which should allow for the Cards to move the ball as well.   A little bad blood here between Baker and  Cards HC  Kingsbury .  Baker transferred from Texas Tech to Oklahoma in his college days when Kingsbury was the coach so Hedgie expects no letup when the opportunity to score presents itself.

Falcons /49ers OVER 48 1 star -  49ers are really banged up on defense. Matt Ryan and co shold have some sucess.   HC Shanahan knows he'll need to score on the vulnerable Falcons defense and the 49ers will

Packers -3.5  2 stars  - Packers are at home in December and fighting for playoff positioning.  Hedgie doesn't trust Tribusky at all.

Raiders -6.5  3 stars -  LAST GAME EVER AT THE COLISEUM. Perfect timing for Raiders who will be fired up and get the pathetic Jaguars who have LOST their last 5 games by an  average of 23 points !  

RAMS -1      4 stars  -  the Rams are HOT.  They are finally using Gurley and have a balanced attack. Their WRs are healthy  and Goff is playing well behind an improved Oline.  The cowboys have bange d up linebackers which will be exploited.  This is NOT a must win for the cowboys as they play the eagles next week . The cowboys have talent but are clearly dysfunction. They are 0-6 vs winning teams this year.  

Vikings  -1  4 stars  -  The Vikes are a legit playoff team and thats mostly now because  Cousins is playing good ball and the past 9 weeks has throw 19 Tds and just 2 ints. They get no respect for playing on the road but this week get WR Thielen back and go vs a Chargers team who have a terrible home field advantage in a small stadium with very little fan support.  Vikings roll...

ARMY NAVY .

The Army Navy game has gone UNDER 17 of the past 22 games.  These teams both run option offenses and are familiar with how to defend each other.  This is it for Army  They had a down season and finished 5-7.  So no bowl game for them.    Vegas set a very low  total at 40.5 knowing the past history.   Hedgie leans Army +11  and leans over.....   so prefer a 

TEASER :   ARMY +17.5  and OVER 35   1 star 

THURSDAY NFL

The Ravens are rolling and understandably heavy favorites at home tonight.  But the JETS have been playing better lately and will get Leveon Bell back after he missed last game with the flu.  This line opened at Ravens -14.5 and Lamar Jackson was listed as questionable with a quad strain.  Lamar will start and says he's fine and the line has gone all the way up to -17 .   It's a short week and by week 15 the players are all banged up. Hedgie thinks the Jets will hang around BUT  If the Ravens get a big lead Hedgie also thinks the Ravens will sit Jackson which allows for a backdoor cover as well.

JETS +17  1 star

SUNDAY HEDGIE

RAMS . PICKEM  2 stars - Hedgie will back the Rams again this week as Seattle must travel on a short week after playing the Vikings Monday Night.  Goff is not as good a Wilson but he has all his WRs healthy and is coming off a good game last week.where he threw for . 424 yards

Titans -2.5  4 stars -  The Titans are 5-1 since Tannehill replaced Mariota.  Their offense should have a field day vs a poor Raiders defense.  The past 2 games the Raiders have been outscored 74-12 . 

Jaguars/Chargers . UNDER 43 1 star - The Jaguars are a mess. Theh are goiving rookie QB . Minshew the start again.  The Chargers are gettimg healthier on defense but the play here is that BOTH teams are very slow.  Rivers takes all his time on clock .  The Chargers rank 30th and Jaguars rank 31st in a stat called 'situation neutral'. This basically means each team takes there sweet time implementing their game plan and play calling.

Panthers +4 1 star - Ron Rivera was fired this past week and he was a player's coach. But the Panthers have lost 4 straight to the Falcons and Hedgie thinks they'll play hard and make this a close game if not win .  


Colts +3.5 1 star -  better team in the trenches.  Getting good value here since J Winston has played well lately . BUT Colts are well coached and play zone defense which Winston typically struggles vs.  Mack is supposed to play for Colts and kicker Vinatieri is replaced by kicker Chase McLaughlin which is a net positive for the Colts.

Redskins/Packers OVER 42 1 star -  this line is just too low 

Today only one play ... Cincinnati +10 2 stars

Hedgie SUNDAY

RAMS -2.5  4 stars -  great 'situation' for Rams.   Cards QB Murray is dealing with a hamstring and the Rams are 3-1 on the road and coming off an embarrassing loss.  

Teaser  :  Bucs +3 and OVER 40.5  2 stars - Bucs have gone 'over' 9 straight. This line has gone from Jags -3  to Jags +3.  ALL the money on Bucs .  prefer teaser here 

Packers /Giants OVER 44  2 stars  - there's some wind in the meadlowlands but Rogers plays well in the wind and should not affect him much.  Packers bounce back 

Colts  pickem  1 star . - all the money is in on the hot Titans team . BUT hedgie prefers the Colts with extra rest at home

Hedgie Saturday

Minnesota can win it's first Big Ten West Title today.  They are 6-0 at home and this game has much the same feel as when Penn State came into town.  PJ Fleck is a great motivator and we've seen how talented Minnesota as the season has worn on.   Minnesota should win this game outright but Hedgie like the generous +3 points vegas has installed the game as.  Actually  for added confidence Hedgie is buying an extra 1/2 point as some vegas spots have Minnesota +3  (even)...

 MINNESOTA +3.5 (-125 )    3 stars


Auburn +3.5 1 star -  Auburn has played a tougher schedule is at home and Bama is without is QB  Tua

TEASER  7 points (-120) .  AUBURN +10.5  & . UNDER 56.5   -  3 stars 
leaning under in general as well.  Really like these numbers with a teaser

ARMY +3  2 stars 

Hedgie Friday

Va Tech comes in hot and has won 15 consecutive meetings in this rivalry.  Vegas has adjusted the line as so.  But this game is in Charlottesville where UVA is 6-0 at home Today the Cavaliers finally get their WIN ....


UVA +2.5  2 stars

Happy Thanksgiving from The HEDGIE

12:30 pm   Bears -6 @ Lions 
      This Game originally opened as a pickem BUT when news broke of backup QB Jeff Driskel having a pulled hamstring the money immediately came in on the Bears.  Just this month the Bears hosted the Lions and Won 20-13 with Driskel as the Lions QB.    What's interesting is that the Total points opened at 37.5 and is still hovering around that number.    The Lions announced last night that Driskel will be out and their 3rd string QB David Blough will start.  Blough has never taken a snap in the NFL. He played for Purdue and is an undrafted rookie.   Hedgie expects a very bland gamescript.  The Bears have a good defense and have learned NOT to trust QB Mitch Tribusky with the game.   So this game should be very similiar to last game's script.  The Lions tend to give up yardage on the ground so expect a big dose of RB David Montgomery.  With this game on the big stage expect Khalil Mack to have a big game. The Lions are aware that Mack can singlehandley ruin a game so they'll also turn to RB Bo Scarboorough and try and play the field position game.   With the line moving all the way from pickem to -6 and perhaps some small value on the home dog the Hedgie prefers ......
     Bears/Lions  UNDER 37.5  4 stars  


4:30pm  Bills +6.5 @ Cowboys  This game means the most today with playoff implications.  Jerry Jones blasted his coaches in the media this week after a loss to he Patriots .  The Bills are 8-3 and appear to be a tough nosed team . However , their wins have all been vs weak teams.  The same aplies to the Cowboys.   We have two Paper Tiers playing today.  The short week benefits the home team and the one weakness the Cowboys can exploit is the Bills 26th ranked run defense.  Hedgie expects a large dose of ZEKE Elliot today . The Bills offense is not dynamic and QB Josh Allen also runs quite a bit.   Hedgie sees a clock churning game  which spells for ...

Bills/Cowboys  UNDER 47 - 2 stars 


8:30pm Saints -6.5 @ Falcons   Just 3 weeks ago the Falcons went into New Orleans and stunned the Saints who were double digit favorites.  The Saints are playing for NFC  playoff positioning and have an opportunity for revenge.  The Falcons are too banged up these days.  Julio Jones has a sore ankle. TE . Austin Hooper is out.  RB Ito Smith s out . Mohammed Sanu was traded to the Patrios last month and QB Matt Ryan is not 100% himself either.   The Falcons do not have a good record at home and Hedgie suspects alot of fans will be eating their 'dirty birds ' at home today.  Saints win by double digits here... 
   SAINTS -6.5 (-120) 3 stars  



SPECIAL THANKSGIVING TEN POINT THREE TEAM TURKEY TEASER :

Take 10 points and move the Lions Bears game from 37 to 47..then use 10 points to take both the afternoon favorites from -6.5 to +3.5.....

Lions/Bears UNDER 47 ; Cowboys +3.5 ; Saints +3.5  3 stars 

NFL SUNDAY Week 12 - 4 plays and adding a Teaser : Eagles +8 & UNDER 51.5 1 star

        (JOSH is currently the BEST ALLEN QB)



Bills -3.5  4 stars . The Battle of the QB Allens.   Josh played his best game of the year last week . while Brandon makes a road start outdoors vs a tough Buffalo D...

Titans -3 (-125) - 3 stars -   Hedgie bought a half point here down to -3.  If you only get -3.5 its still a 2 star play. Love Coach Vrabel off a bye  at home.  Last yr  the Titans whooped Dallas 28-14  in Dallas off their Bye.   Nick Foles is back but he sure looked rusty last week.  Maybe not such an upgrade....


Falcons -3 - 3 stars - this game opened  Falcons -4.5. Some big early money game in on the Bucs. Some call this 'smart money' just because it was bet early in the week. Hedgie doesn't think it's such smart money. Just like last week some 'smart' money bet the Redskins....The Falcons are rejuvenated after their bye week and have beaten their division foes Saints and Panthers back to back ...next up they take down the Bucs.....


Jets +3 - 2 stars . The Jets are a different team as of late.  The poor perception of this team comes from the early season days of  Falk at QB and Darnold out with Mono.   Now . Darnold is playing well and as mentioned last week the Jets D is the #1 team vs the run.  Gruden has done a great job with the Raiders but it's a tough situation traveling west coast to east and an early start time.  Raiders secondary is still banged up.   Jets win 


  Teaser ADD : Eagles +8 . & UNDER51.5 1 star




alot of injuries . for the late games...stay tuned for an addon . around 345pm

Hedgie Saturday

Tulane +6  1 star - Tulane is 5-0 at homes . SU and vs Spread !   A win at home would give them their first undefeated season at home since 1998. play the more motivated home dog

Southern Miss -3.5 2 stars  - much like tulane  So Miss has been great at home

Boston College +21.5 3 stars - line a bit inflated with ND beating up on Navy.  BC comes in off a bye with a strong run game

LSU/ Arkansas OVER 69 2 stars -  Arkansas Defense is horrible and expect LSU and Joe Burrow to have their Offense humming . A good time to pad some Heisman contender stats . 

Va Tech -3.5 2 stars -  Hokies been playing better as of late and control their own destiny in conference.  At home in rainy conditions favors the Hokies

West Va +6  -  2 stars - Okl St loses is starting QB last week and a few weeks ago lost star WR Wallace.  So West Va catches a break for its last home game.  Grab the live home dog...

Tulsa -3 3 stars - Houston is a bit banged up and Tulsa is fresh off a bye at home....

Thursday Night NFL

Two Divisional Teams on a short week that are slightly banged up....The Coaching Edge goes to the Colts but they lost RB Mack to a hand injury and TY Hilton is still less than 100% and may or may not go.  The Situation favors the home team Texans on a short week and Watson has played well at home so should bounce back after last week.   Hedgie leans under and leans home team without much conviction......but for Action's sake a 1 star teaser works....


TEASER :  Texans +3 and UNDER 53  (6.5 points -120)  1 star

Hedgie had a 5-1 Saturday and hit it's FIRST FIVE STAR of the Season...

Tonight's game is being played in Mexico City at 7500 feet altitude.  This line opened up at Chiefs -3.5 and Total 52.5   ALL the money is in on the Chiefs which makes sense at first glance . Mahomes is back for his 2nd straight game and the Chargers lost vs the Raiders last game out as 1 point favorites so the public will be reluctant to back them.
     The Chargers practiced all week in Denver to adjust to the high altitude which not many are talking about.  This is a divisional game and although the Chargers are without their two starting tacklers the Chiefs are without their two best pass rushers.  Melvin Gordon is hitting his stride and the Chiefs have really struggled stopping the run.  With this line being bet all the way up to -5.5 and -6 on the Chiefs the Hedgie sees really good value in backing the Chargers here at +6. Phillip Rivers is 15-5-1 ATS  in primetime games 

CHARGERS +6  2 stars 

Hedgie was 5-1 Saturday and has the FIRST FIVE STAR PLAY OF THE YEAR

Two weeks ago the Pats were embarrassed on National TV by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They've had a BYE week to stew on it and Hedgie imagines the scowl on Belechik's face is now permanent.   The record for Belechik and Brady off a bye is a well known trend so Hedgie was surprised to see Vegas only post Pats -3.5.
   This line is more about the perception of the Eagles. They are also coming off as bye and the last time these two teams met the Eagles were holding up the Lombardi Trophy.   The 2019 Eagles are NOT THE SAME TEAM.  Carson Wentz is having a mediocre year. The Eagles skilled players are banged up on . The Eags only true deep threat in Desean Jackson is done for the year with an abdominal injury.  Sproles was just put on IR . Jordan Howard is dealing with a stringer. SO the Eags signed Jay Ajai and Jordan Matthew to fill plug the holes.  The Eagles secondary on defense has also struggled all year long.    
   Ok fine, The Eagles also had a bye .week. Maybe they rested and healed a bit but noone came off the IR.  They now must face teh #1 Defense in the NFL stewing off a loss with mastermind Belechik scheming up ways to slow down an average offense with very little speed.  
    Sprinkle in Tom Brady with an extra week with new WR weapon Sanu and perhaps a lil revenge on the mind and you have a formula for a potential blowout ....
     PATS -3.5  5 stars ...this line is creeping up now that the betting public is tuning in . At -4 its still a 5 star.   Shop and grab the best line you can sooner than later ! 

Jets +2 - 3 stars - The Redskins are going with Haskins at QB the rest of the season. Everyone knows He's not ready for the speed of the NFL as a QB but this s how the Redskins will learn what they have in another lost season for Redskins fans.  The Skins are coming off a bye week so Vegas installed them as home favorites. Hedgie doesn't think one extra week to prepare is going to help Haskins here.   The Redskins under interim coach Callahan is a run based team. Thats a smart move and makes sense.  That protects Haskin's deficiencies and they've had some success. HOWEVER the JETS strength is their run defense . They are the NUMBER ONE run stopping unit in the NFL.  The Jets are still trying.  Sam Darnold has had an up and down year coming off Mono but is the better QB here.  Jets should be favored

Dallas/ Detroit UNDER 47 -  2 stars - Stafford is a scratch again with broken bones in his back. The Lions have lost 5 of their last 6 and start their backup QB.  The cowboys typically lay well on the road (except vs the Jets) . A good Oline and strong running game is a good recipe for road success and that just what the Cowboys have.  Hedgie sees a big day from Zeke.   This line jumped form Dal -3.5 . to Dal -7 but the total stayed still.  The value here is on the UNDER 

Saints/Bucs  OVER 49.5 . - 4 stars - The Saints will ounce back after a poor home erformance last week. They have Kamara and TE Cook back in the lineup.  Bucs have gone OVER .their last 7 straight. Enough said...

Texans/Ravens OVER 51.5 - 2 stars -   two elite QBs  vs two average defenses.  Texans no longer have Clowney (traded to Seahawks) and JJ WATTS is on IR.   Texans have been good on the road and have had a bye to prepare.  Lamar Jackson gets all the hype but Watson has been playing at a pro bowl level too.   This game should be an entertaining shootout....

Last Week The Hedgie got a couple bad beats ...this week all the right buttons have been pushed ...and there's a FIVE STAR ON DECK

Last week The Hedgie was flabbergasted as he watched the Bills blow a lead to the Browns and miss a FG  while at the same time the Chiefs up 5  blew two FGs and the game......

It happens...and this week the computers have been reprogrammed and the picks are in :

Texas Tech +3   3  Stars -   TCU travels to this one after a 3 OT loss to Baylor and it will be hard for them to get up for this one.  The past two weeks they've had demoralizing losses....Texas Tech should win outright as a home dog

Iowa -3  - 2 stars -  good spot to fade Minnesota after such an emotional home vs last week.  They jumped 9 spots in the ratings polls and now must face a tough opponent in Iowa on the road.  Maybe not such a letdown vs a poor foe but Iowa is a good team and will be ready ....


Louisville -3.5  - 3 stars - last week Hedgie pushed the Louisville Button and it didn't work.  But this week it will vs a banged up NC State team dealing with multiple injuries.  Louisville can still make a bowl game and has revenge after wolfpack crushed them last yr 52-10

Kansas/ Oklahoma State OVER 68.5  3 stars - both teams go as their offenses go.  Both come off a bye and will be rested and prepared.  This game is already ticking up from 67.5 . to 68.5 . so play it now....

and Finally an exotic 3 team teaser:  How about 3 heavy favorites who have  something to still play for ?

Alabama -18  over Miss St - Bama needs to make a statement to get back in the top 4 and will have no shame running this score up....minus 10  makes Bama -8

Oregon -27 vs Arizona - off a bye and rested the Ducks can run the table and maybe get into the playoffs...take -27 down to -17

Michigan -13.5 vs Mich state -   Harbaugh can make a statement here beating up on instate rival and would have no problem running it up at home vs a Spartans team that's having a down year...

THREE TEAM TEASER  1 star - Bama -8 / Oregon -17 / Michigan -3.5 


FIRST HALF - INDIANA +7.5 - 2 stars - how in the world will Penn State be up for this game? Their title hopes were just dashed in Minnesota last week and now they are double digit favorites to a solid Hoosier team.  Hedgie suspects maybe they get their act together at halftime but this is a hangover spot for the nittany lions and Indiana will punch them in the mouth to start the game..



stay tuned as Hedgie makes sure all the sunday buttons are working for it's FIRST FIVE STAR OF THE SEASON...

NFL SUNDAY

Bills +3  3 stars - Bills are 3-0 on the road vs spread.  Baker cooks up more turnovers than Tds  (12 vs 6)    Bills win outright

Bucs/Cards OVER 52  4 stars -  Bucs are . 6-2 . OVER this yr .  Arians 'the QB whisperer' has .Winston playing well.  Cards offense playing better as season unfolds

Packers/Panthers OVER 48  1 star - bounce back for Rogers & Co at home...Panthers on a 4-0 over streak. Hedgie loves Norv Turner as O-coordinator coaching up Kyle Allen ...has Cam seen his last game in a Panthers uni ? Kyle Allen playing well.....Hedgie thinks so

Bengals +10.5  2 stars -  teams this year AFTER THE PATS are  1-8  vs the spread.   Ravens will be hard pressed to bring their A game for the listless Bengals.  Bengals get a new starting QB  which usually translates to a boost of energy.  

Teaser:  Chiefs pickem  & OVER 42 1 star


stay tuned for later play....leaning vikes and under on the night game....waiting for better prices.
leaning Colts and under teaser.....interesting . that money is in on the rams today...keeping an eye there and will have a play..road favorite off a bye are 69% vs spread...but hedgie doesn't love rams Oline..heavy action on this late game . so stay tuned for a teaser.....


Btw,  Hedgie knows he needs to step it up...if today doesn't right the ship perhaps Hedgie needs a bye week....

HEDGIE NCAA SATURDAY

Illinois +14.5   4 stars -  Illinois has won 3 straight and Lovie Smith has this team feeling confident.  On the other hand Michigan State is a disaster.  Can they even Score 14 points today?   The weather  is also a factor.  Take the 2 touchdown gift !


Penn St / Minnesota   UNDER 48 - 4 stars 


Louisville +7  - 2 stars - Miami is historically poor vs the spread the WEEK AFTER a game vs their in state rival Florida State.  5-16  ATS  the past 21 games .  Take the points 


Cal /washington St  UNDER51.5  2 stars


Bama /LSU   - the biggest game of the day by far.  Most money is in on LSU .  the Line his bama -7 and has been bet down to Bama -5.5 in many spots.  How often do you get a Saban coached team at home off a bye for less than 6 points !??     BAMA -5.5 . 2 stars

NFL THURSDAY

Any idea who Phillip Rivers is talking to here ?   I didn't think so......

Well, it's the New Offensive Coordinator , Shane Steichen.  He replaced Ken Whisenhunt last week after the Chargers let Ken go.   The move seems to have sparked this Chargers offense.  Last week they looked great against the Packers and Hedgie doesn't want to put too much into one game but these Chargers were in the playoffs last year and Phillip Rivers historically likes to get it going in November as they are 8-1 in November last 9 games.   
   The Raiders got a nice win last week vs the Lions which gives us a nice price to take the Chargers here...

LA CHARGERS -1 3 stars

NFL SUNDAY...and an early / london addon

Lions +3  2 stars

Titans +3.5 2 stars

Packers -3 (-120) 2 stars

TEASERS:  

 Jets +3 & UNDER 48 1 star

Eagles +2 & UNDER 48 1 star

Bills -4.5 & UNDER 43.5 2 stars

early addition:  

TEASER :
 TEXANS +7 and UNDER 52.5 1 star

this line has gone from texans -1 to Texans +1 . Texans are without JJ WATT which has made the line move BUT the Texans  should be able to establish the run  vs the Jags. When these teams played earlier this season the Texans won 13-12.  QB Watson was testing a visor after being kicked in the eye last week. His vision is fine and he'll be going without the visor at kickoff.  Expect a tough lower scoring game ..value clearly on teasing Texans and under




stay tuned for late add on....

NCAA SATURDAY - 7 plays...adding 4 more ...a BIG 11 PLAY SATURDAY

Troy -1  1 star  Troy has a solid defense .   They are 8-2 past 10 games coming off a loss and Coastal Carolina is 0-6 ATS vs FBS teams at home

Pitt -7  1 star - Pitt lost a tough game to Miami last week . Thats bad news for GA TECH who is still transitioning to a new offense and is 1-9 ATS their past 10 games. Pitt defense is very good

Syracuse -3  1 star - varying opinions on these teams.  But hedgie will take Cuse at home who's hungry for their first ACC win

Akron/Bowling Green OVER 49.5 1 star - Akron gets . QB Kato Nelson back from a 2 game suspension and this line should go higher tomorrow when that becomes more clear to bettors

Oregon/USC  UNDER 62.5 2 stars -  Oregon is coming off 2 high scoring games vs pass happy teams .  ThereforeVegas adjusted this line higher than it should be . 

UAB +14  vs Tennessee - 3 stars  This line opened Tennesee -12.5 .  Hedgie believes most bettors are making a blind play on the SEC . vs lesser opponents.  BUT looking deeper . UAB has a hot QB n Tyler Johnson lately and they have a statistically  good defense.  Tennessee could be in a letdown spot after a big upset of South Carolina last week  and have only covered the vegas spread in 6 of their past 21 home games.  grab this line anywhere above +13 . Hedgie got +14 (-115)
    UAB +14 3 stars

Florida +7  4 stars - this line has been all over the map this week.  It opened at -6.5 the dipped to -4 and is climbing back up again.  Florida is healthy and  getting star WR Kadarius Toney back.  Georgia is having a down year for them and the public has not adjusted for that so vegas  keeps the line inflated.

...

Saturday am ADDS:

Memphis -5.5  2 stars - GAMEDAY at MEMPHIS  a lot of pressure n SMU  who seem to be hanging on to their unblemished record.  

ND State/ WF - UNDER 60.5 2 stars -  lean . NC st with the points (+7.5)...but prefer UNDER better  as  Wolfpack has been under 9 of their last 11 as a dog.


Kansas State -4.5 2 stars - both teams off huge wins and the play here is that K state will have a letdown. Line opened at -6 so we're getting good value.  Kansas Will NOT SNEAK UP on the wildcats.  K state simply better...

Hawaii -2 1 star 

MNF Football

Ironically, The Dolphins traded Safety Minkah Fitpatrick to teh Steelers earlier this year. He's a versatile young player and the Dolphins will get a first round pick in 2020 in return. But The Hedgie only cares about TONIGHT and Hedgie is siding with the 36 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick.  

The Dolphins have purged their roster of talent and stockpiled picks BUT this is still the NFL and the Dolphins will be playing hard on Monday Night Football.   If The Fish started Josh Rosen this line would be higher and the Hedgie would pass. But since HC Flores inserted Ryan back into the lineup vs the Dolphins have shown a lot of fight.   They almost came back to beat the Redskins and then last week gave the Bills a real scare.  After starting the season 0-5 and also vs the spread the Dolphins have now covered 2 straight.  

The Steelers have also struggled. Big Ben is out and there is no way that a 2-4 team led by backup QB Mason Rudolph should be laying 2 Tds .  Grab the +14 . while you can....

DOLPHINS +14  3 stars 

NFL SUNDAY

After a 2-0 start in College Football this Thursday  Hedgie had higher expectations.   Finishing 5-3-1  for the week it's time to focus n the NFL.....


Colts -5 4 stars - Indy is well coached and balanced.  QB Brissett is playing well as evidenced by his . 326 yards and 4TDs  vs Houston last week. The Colts also get star defender Leonard back.   Flacco has not been playing well and Hedgie thinks the curious money coming in on the Broncos is based on them coming off a bye.  That gives us even better value....

Eagles +2 - 2 stars - eagles are a getting healthy and a good team.  Bettors remember last week's poor performance so the line is off.  Bills QB Allen is more of a running QB and should not be able to exploit the eags weakness in the secondary.

Texans -6  3 stars - Raiders traded their best DB to the Texans this week ...they already are struggling mightily on defense .  Texans get healthy at home after a loss last week....Texans by 11

Arizona +13 Game 1 star & Arizona +7  FIRST HALF 3 stars

   Drew Brees gets the start but Kamara sits out.  Brees hasnt played in weeks and should have a little rust.  Hedgie thinks a slow start and without Kamara less explosive plays.  The Cards are playing better and have won 3 straight including 2 on the road....

TEASER:  Seattle -2 & UNDER 57 (6 points) -  Atlanta is reeling.  Matt Ryan is out with an ankle injury and  WR . Sanu was traded to the Patriots. Matt Schaub gets the start and he's not mobile .  Seattle should get the lead and grind out the clock with Carson for the road win.  Hedgie leans . Under and Seattle.  The lines have moved from -6 .to -8 and 51  & going lower....Lock in -2 and 57 now

TEASER : Bucs +8.5 and OVER 39.5 - 2 stars  Bucs coming off a bye and teasing them up across . 3,4,7,8 is preferred here.  Titans start Tannehill and he's a better passer which makes this game a lean over too....

TEASER :  Patriots -4 and under 49 - 1 star ...rain and bad weather....not sure why the money is coming in on the Browns....Freddie Kitchens vs Bill Belechik ??  Pulleeasse.....Pats are best prepared team in the NFL...think the Browns practiced with wet balls all week for today's conditions?  The Pats did....


stay tuned for late day  additions.....

NCAA FRIDAY & SATURDAY - coming off a 2-0 Thursday.....ADDING Alabama OVER 55...and Notre Dame -1

Friday:  

USC / COLORADO -  OVER 64   1 star


Saturday:

Iowa / Northwestern UNDER 37.5 1 star

Army  -10 2 stars

TCU +1 3 stars

stay tuned for a saturday morning add on as the lines move...

Notre Dame -1    3 stars

Alabama/Arkansas OVER 55 3 stars

Thursday Night Football

NCAA:  Houston +13  3 stars at the beginning of the season this would have been Houston -6.  SMU has impressed but it's alot to lay and Houston gets QB Tune back . who is servicable.

NFL: REDSKINS  ONLY if can get +17 -  1 star  - Vikes are without Thielen and the total is at 41.5 . Expect low scoring game and 17 is good value . (only 17 !)

NFL SUNDAY --- ALERTS ....adjustment on 49ers / redskins.....

Giants -3  3 stars

Rams/Falcons OVER 54.5 4 stars

Vikings -2.5  2 star

Eagles +3 (-120) 1 star - make sure you get +3

Colts -1  2 stars

*** 49ers -9.5  is now a PASS ***- makes sure you get 9.5 . its raining in DC.  kyle shanahan will get revenge today. dan synder and the organization treated him very poorly when he was an assistant coach there.

rumors circulating of 49ers arriving late to Fed Ex field due to possible late night out by multiple players....its raining , the total has dropped to 39....this becomes either a total pass or a small play on the home team dog  getting +6 in the first half.....end of day  shanahan is the much better coach and this team should be able to make adjustments ....but perhaps its a sluggish start for the 49ers .. the play now becomes :

REDSKINS +6 .  FIRST HALF  2 stars

NCAA SATURDAY

Virginia -3  1 star

West Va/ Oklahoma OVER 63 2 stars

Penn State / Michigan UNDER 47   4 stars

Washington +2.5 3 stars

Oklahoma State -3.5  1 star....PREFER MONEYLINE   -180  4 stars